UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Radar looks just awful too, this winter is pretty dead to me at this point lol, I'm sitting at -2 currently with a major storm approaching, and will likely see 1-2 of mess then pouring rain, onto the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 take a look here loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-wvvor-25 I am looking for an early start to the snowfall Upton says 2pm..lets see http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=80&y=201&site=okx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=80&map_y=201#.VsFQN0KVv8s ------------------ Relative Humidity the amount of water vapor present in air expressed as a percentage of the amount needed for saturation at the same temperature. radar http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=VA_WV-rad-0-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Tommy I agree. The 700 mb maps do not match the precip printouts . When it comes to WAA , precip will usually break out ahead of what's modeled. The hi res NAM thinks so .I would like to have the RGEM on my side but all the models show more saturation than precip so I will side with the 700 mb maps before the precip ones . I like an area wide 2 to 3 with 4 inch amounts N and W . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I don't see such a quick change to rain in interior areas as some models are showing. This level of arctic cold will be hard to scour out and I see more ice than what is forecasted before the inevitable flip to rain. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Flurries in Colts Neck now Had a burst of L/S earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It's even going to change to rain on summit of Mt. Washington tomorrow. Thats how much warm air will be pumped up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Strongest winds in our area look to be out across Long Island tomorrow as there is currently a HWW in areas just east of Suffolk. Boston AFD for areas just east of Suffolk county: THE MOST UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR ABRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOONAND EVENING. THIS IS A TYPICAL CASE WITH A 90+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JETOVER A STRONG INVERSION. THIS ALWAYS IS A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST ASMOST OF THE WIND OFTEN REMAINS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND.HOWEVER...THERE SOMETIMES IS A 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW WHERE SOME OF THESTRONGER WINDS ATTEMPT TO MIX DOWN AND THIS SITUATION DOES HAVE ATLEAST SOME POTENTIAL. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED TOWARDS 00ZALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFINE LINE...WHICH MAY EVEN RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THEMAIN CONCERN THOUGH IS IF THIS FINE LINE DEVELOPS...IT WILL BRINGTHE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. HAVEISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND SOUTHERN RHODEISLAND. LATER SHIFTS CAN BETTER DETERMINE ON WHETHER THE BESTCOURSE OF ACTION IS TO CONVERT TO ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS. ITS ALSOPOSSIBLE THE THREAT FOR WIND ADVISORIES MAY EXIST FURTHER WEST THANWHERE WE HAVE PLACED THE WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Light flurries here... Temp is 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Temp 5 dew pt -2. Temps dropped 2 since the cloud cover took over. Few flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z nam hasincreased totals a bit especially for NYC, 3-4" and 3-6 for nnj and parts of Hudson valley on westward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweisenfeld Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Flurries here since 9:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Also keep in mind while the snow is falling and has not changed ratios will be MUCH higher than 10:1 as model maps show, I'm thinking between 12-15:1 easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 4k also ups totals, holds cold longer, especially nw burbs, we stay fozen for almost 12 hours 6-8 of which is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 12k and 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just imagine if we had blocking with secondary redevelopment..... Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 1"-2" for NYC metro and 3"-5" for the interior seems like a good call. Followed by ice for the interior and a 2-3 hour period of rain for the coast before a huge dry slot moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Nam has 2-3 now for NYC. JB is getting worried that 3-6 inches might fall in NYC.JBA winter storm warning has been issued around DC as the snow is coming in thickly with the wave I am counting on to leave a boundary behind that will have a tough time getting into the areas getting what is a snowstorm today, I like 3-6 in DC fading to 1-3 around NYC, but am getting more concerned this just comes up the I-95 corridor and carries the 3-6 into NYC, Amazing that was the first forecast there and what has changing it got me? Its back west of that where the snow is overforecasted, but the battle now becomes is it a big ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 1"-2" for NYC metro and 3"-5" for the interior seems like a good call. Followed by ice for the interior and a 2-3 hour period of rain for the coast before a huge dry slot moves in. The heavier rains don't move in until many hours after the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The heavier rains don't move in until many hours after the dry slot. Nam has been consistent with this thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The heavier rains don't move in until many hours after the dry slot. Thanks for pointing that out. I think a lot of people will assume that it's over once we dry slot late tonight. Then the rain moves in tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Thanks for pointing that out. I think a lot of people will assume that it's over once we dry slot late tonight. Then the rain moves in tomorrow morning. Tomorrow looks like a miserable day with rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Nam has 2-3 now for NYC. JB is getting worried that 3-6 inches might fall in NYC. JB A winter storm warning has been issued around DC as the snow is coming in thickly with the wave I am counting on to leave a boundary behind that will have a tough time getting into the areas getting what is a snowstorm today, I like 3-6 in DC fading to 1-3 around NYC, but am getting more concerned this just comes up the I-95 corridor and carries the 3-6 into NYC, Amazing that was the first forecast there and what has changing it got me? Its back west of that where the snow is overforecasted, but the battle now becomes is it a big ice storm There are some decent reflectivities but already mixed precip is showing up off SE NJ, I think the RGEM may be too fast changing the 5 boroughs over but an average of 3-6 will require some sort of banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 There's going to be at least a few hour period of freezing rain West of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Tomorrow looks like a miserable day with rain and wind. Hopefully the higher rain totals verify. We need the surface low to track as far East as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 5mm is about 0.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z RGEM looks good West of the city for a solid 2-4" with lollies to 5" before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The 12z RGEM is actually significantly snowier than the 06z run was. Doubled totals in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hopefully the higher rain totals verify. We need the surface low to track as far East as possible. With all due respect, why would we want so much rain? Do we need it? Or do you just like the pouring rain ( and that is fine I guess, albeit a little unusual ) because I'm not a fan of flooding basements and such....do you think we will get that much rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The 12z RGEM is actually significantly snowier than the 06z run was. Doubled totals in places. I really don't know what to think but I am worried about my wife and son driving home from New Brunswick on 287 this evening. I am off today for the holiday, but son is at Rutgers and they don't cancel for this kind of thing. I would be worried about ice, Tomorrow looks ok with high temps and no ice issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 The 12z RGEM is actually significantly snowier than the 06z run was. Doubled totals in places. As was both nams, rgem is still low imo especially for the city... My call right now would be 2-4" immediate metro 2-4" central jersey 3-5" NENJ 3-6" NWNJ 4-6" EPA 3-6" LHV South of 84 4-6" Mid Hudson valley 6-8" extreme north and west burbs (100-200 miles from city) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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