SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Max Potential? I have a vibe this thing is going to overperform with snow ,for our area.... Outside of JFK on east including most of LI except maybe NW Nassau the models clearly are seeing the offshore high pressure wedge when you look at wind directions. At some stations the GFS and MOS have shown winds actually backing a bit in the 21-02Z hour from 100 to 060-080. With this air mass in place and just an overrunning wave a light 080-100 wind won't be enough to warm the BL this late in the season, they need to go 120-160 which for places like JFK/FRG/ISP the GFS and to some extent the NAM does too by 23-00Z. These sort of setups here usually see LI changeover much earlier than NYC/LGA/EWR, sometimes 2-3 hours earlier. I could see snow in NYC til as late as 03-04z tomorrow night if everything went right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Has anyone taken a look at some of the short terms? Hrrr24 and rap for example have much weaker systems then what nam and others show at those time frames, dunno of it would matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 there was a ice storm many years ago in nyc where we had like 10 hours of just sleet falling....That's a sleet storm not an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Has anyone taken a look at some of the short terms? Hrrr24 and rap for example have much weaker systems thend what name and others show at those time frames, dunno of it would matterWay, way out of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Overunning events always come in wetter and earlier than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Way, way out of range. I dont mean the end of their runs... they show a weaker system down south over the next 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Outside of JFK on east including most of LI except maybe NW Nassau the models clearly are seeing the offshore high pressure wedge when you look at wind directions. At some stations the GFS and MOS have shown winds actually backing a bit in the 21-02Z hour from 100 to 060-080. With this air mass in place and just an overrunning wave a light 080-100 wind won't be enough to warm the BL this late in the season, they need to go 120-160 which for places like JFK/FRG/ISP the GFS and to some extent the NAM does too by 23-00Z. These sort of setups here usually see LI changeover much earlier than NYC/LGA/EWR, sometimes 2-3 hours earlier. I could see snow in NYC til as late as 03-04z tomorrow night if everything went right. Nice disco SG thanks that meso chart for the 850 fronto just grabs me in ATM sneaky lil thing - imo http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 21z SREF came a bit East with the heavier rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That's a sleet storm not an ice storm. nyc was under a ice storm warning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Upton's point forecast--Newark http://forecast.weather.gov/meteograms/Plotter.php?lat=40.7241&lon=-74.1732&wfo=OKX&zcode=NJZ106&gset=20&gdiff=10&unit=0&tinfo=EY5&ahour=0&pcmd=11011111111110000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000&lg=en&indu=1!1!1!&dd=&bw=&hrspan=48&pqpfhr=6&psnwhr=6 steady slow rise in temps lets see.. just where we stand at midnight tomorrow, within this guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Nams a bit east and south so far, waa snows hold on a bit longer, icing in interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Nam has a decent 2-4 front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Nam has a decent 2-4 front end dump Curious to see what the RGEM shows. Its been steady with a nice 3-4" event for the far interior and good amount of icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Curious to see what the RGEM shows. Its been steady with a nice 3-4" event for the far interior and good amount of icing. 4k looks better for everyone as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Look at that tongue of cold ....dropping south along the Apps things may become a bit more tricky with the changeover times for some of us -imo http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016021500/nam_T2m_neus_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Nmm, arw, rgem, and 4knam, hint that the changeover may not come as easy as the globals are showing.... NYC could see 3 and the interior could see 4-6 in some spots, esp NWNJ and NW hudson valley if it holds a bit longer, and/or the mix line stalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Nam also wants to turn a lot of us back to snow as it pulls NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Look at the difference in that wedge from the high on tonight's 00Z run at 27 hours vs the 12Z run at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 992 goes right over Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Look at that tongue of cold ....dropping south along the Apps things may become a bit more tricky with the changeover times for some of us -imo nam_T2m_neus_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016021500/nam_T2m_neus_10.png What up T, dont under estimate that warm pool of water reaching all the way up to Delmarva. I think it changes faster anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 0z RGEM.. Hr24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 12k and 4k agree general 1-3, a few pockets of 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 No obs thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Anyway,RGEM is about 4-5 hours of snow for city and nw burbs, city changes to rain quick, and burbs mix for another 4 hours then change rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Anyway,RGEM is about 4-5 hours of snow for city and nw burbs, city changes to rain quick, and burbs mix for another 4 hours then change rainhow much falls in that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'll gladly take 6-8 hour frozen event followed by heavy rain and wind, especially this crappy winter up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Rgem looks better for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 how much falls in that time? Not sure yet, maps not done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Air mass is remarkably moist given the strength and proximity of the high pressure center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 What up T, dont under estimate that warm pool of water reaching all the way up to Delmarva. I think it changes faster anticipated. Hey V ...we understand your take thats the fun with this kind of system I like the learning curve it gives everyone and how things sync up with the guidance of choice http://digital.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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