Possible 2/16 storm threat

[winterwarlock]

Besides the blizzard this will be either the biggest or 2nd biggest snow of the season for most (2-4")

Most will not be seeing that much

[jm1220]

This was pegged for a long time to be a well inland hit if at all, the West Atlantic Ridge is hard to beat. This winter you pretty much need for the storm to be a miss a few days out to get heavy snow.

[snowman19]

Most will not be seeing that much

Nope, more like a dusting to an inch then all rain in the area if the 12z guidance is correct, up into the 50's and torrential rain Tuesday, potential for high wind gusts during the day too. The Euro was way west with the low track by the way and really warm

[winterwx21]

Nope, more like a dusting to an inch then all rain in the area if the 12z guidance is correct, up into the 50's and torrential rain Tuesday, potential for high wind gusts during the day too. The Euro was way west with the low track by the way and really warm

 

 

NAM and RGEM look better than a dusting to an inch. It's going to take a little while to get this cold airmass out of the way. It should at least be a 1 to 2 inch snowfall before the changeover. 

[weatherfreeeeak]

This cold air is fierce and is not just going to go away without a bang. I've seen way too many times when all models had the changeover quicker before a rain event and it didn't happen. Go with mesoscale models tonight into tomorrow, globals aren't for this. There's going to be a good front end thump of snow north of I-78 and Atleast 1-3"

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

This cold air is fierce and is not just going to go away without a bang. I've seen way too many times when all models had the changeover quicker before a rain event and it didn't happen. Go with mesoscale models tonight into tomorrow, globals aren't for this. There's going to be a good front end thump of snow north of I-78 and Atleast 1-3"

It's a wayyy different scenario than what you guys are thinking... If the artic high was parked in Canada or even northern NY and retreating to the north, northeast id agree, but the high is parked over Central NY and retreating almost due east, forcing the stom due north/northeast once it hits the APP. runners are terrible here

It's lose lose IMO: if that high was parked overhead, most of us would see hours of Virga followed by an OTS solution, with that kicker trailing so far behind.. This could never have been big storm, only moderate at best, which is what most of us NW guys were atleast hoping for.. 3-6 front end with ice

[snowman19]

It's a wayyy different scenario than what you guys are thinking... If the artic high was parked in Canada or even northern NY and retreating to the north, northeast id agree, but the high is parked over Central NY and retreating almost due east, forcing the stom due north/northeast once it hits the APP. runners are terrible here

It's lose lose IMO: if that high was parked overhead, most of us would see hours of Virga followed by an OTS solution, with that kicker trailing so far behind.. This could never have been big storm, only moderate at best, which is what most of us NW guys were atleast hoping for.. 3-6 front end with ice

Yes. The high is already sliding out east and moving away, it isn't anchored and there in lies the big problem. By tomorrow we are already getting return flow around the backside of the high which is moving east. The mechanism (high) to keep cold in, will be gone by the time the storm starts. That's why this is a rain event

[IsentropicLift]

WAA precip is almost always under estimated. I'm still fairly convinced that the coast receives around an inch with 2-4 inland before a flip to ice and then rain.

[UnionWeatherWx]

The only peeople getting a "dusting" would be on LI , most around the metro will receive 1-3" . Besides its getting into the range where we look at the RGEM , etc . Stop worrying about the global models so much and Nowcast .

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

18z nam is coming in slightly stronger.

 

These were just the 12z 925mb winds...tuesday morning

 

[UnionWeatherWx]

Radar looks healthy .

[IsentropicLift]

986mb over Allentown on the 18z NAM. If you really want the prolific rains we need the low to pass just offshore.

[winterwx21]

Now under a winter weather advisory. 

[IsentropicLift]

Surface winds on 30-50mph should be common to the East of the surface low track. Rapidly deepening SLP.

[IsentropicLift]

Now under a winter weather advisory.

Only Mt Holly CWA from Morris and West.

[IsentropicLift]

WWA here for 2-4" of snow and 0.25" ice. From 9AM-2AM.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

if you look at a NAM loop of 18z , it really just needs to trend slightly more eastward to keep most of inland NJ below freezing during the whole event. 

 

the cold air already entranced could just do that. 0z is likely to trend colder.

[dmillz25]

NYC under WWA for 1-4" of snow and some ice

[PB GFI]

The only peeople getting a "dusting" would be on LI , most around the metro will receive 1-3" . Besides its getting into the range where we look at the RGEM , etc . Stop worrying about the global models so much and Nowcast .

Parts of the N/S of Long Island are in line for 2 to 3 with this .

WAA usually over performs and we will be starting out very cold. There are hints before the the feature flips most of the precip that falls is frozen before we dry slot before wave 2.

Keep in mind the ground will be frozen so the 1st flip to rain will freeze everywhere early on .

Ultimately we will climb far enough above to save the coast

Looks like the 2nd piece will rotate so far North we may get off with less rain than originally thought.

I would expect to see an inch of rain, just not the 2 to 3 once thought.

[snowman19]

Parts of the N/S of Long Island are in line for 2 to 3 with this .

WAA usually over performs and we will be starting out very cold. There are hints before the the feature flips most of the precip that falls is frozen before we dry slot before wave 2.

Keep in mind the ground will be frozen so the 1st flip to rain will freeze everywhere early on .

Ultimately we will climb far enough above to save the coast

Looks like the 2nd piece will rotate so far North we may get off with less rain than originally thought.

I would expect to see an inch of rain, just not the 2 to 3 once thought.

Yea looks like initial WAA snow/sleet, then dry slot, then rain and freezing rain after. The mid level low centers pass well west of the surface low on the models. I don't think the freezing rain last all that long, temps will be rising and in those situations the freezing rain "kills" itself and flips it to plain rain. You get latent heat of freezing release once the freezing rain starts and it acts to warm temps even more, which flips it to all rain. My guess is 1-2 inches of rain Tuesday and some high winds

[PB GFI]

Yea looks like initial WAA snow/sleet, then dry slot, then rain and freezing rain after. The mid level low centers pass well west of the surface low on the models. I don't think the freezing rain last all that long, temps will be rising and in those situations the freezing rain "kills" itself and flips it to plain rain. You get latent heat of freezing release once the freezing rain starts and it acts to warm temps even more, which flips it to all rain. My guess is 1-2 inches of rain Tuesday and some high winds

The part I worry about for CNJ and Nassau County is even if you flip at 32 33 the ground is still freezes on contact.

Tommy pointed out away the water right off the coast is 32 33 so you will not rocket 2ms with wave 1 even w an E component.

WAA starts out in the teens so it's going to be a long track to 32.

I think most of wave 1 is frozen for most before light rain takes over on front of the dry slot.

WWA will probably get posted from CNJ onto N County.

Yeh Tues is a warm rainy very windy day.

Before we get cold again. Sorry had to throw the in there.

The next warm up is once again 3 days long before we head into another cold period 25 thru the 15th .

Then it ends.

[mweisenfeld]

Upton has the advisory up, too.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

GFS = a tad slower and eastward.  somewhat of a trend towards NAM.

[SnowGoose69]

The part I worry about for CNJ and Nassau County is even if you flip at 32 33 the ground is still freezes on contact.

Tommy pointed out away the water right off the coast is 32 33 so you will not rocket 2ms with wave 1 even w an E component.

WAA starts out in the teens so it's going to be a long track to 32.

I think most of wave 1 is frozen for most before light rain takes over on front of the dry slot.

WWA will probably get posted from CNJ onto N County.

Yeh Tues is a warm rainy very windy day.

Before we get cold again. Sorry had to throw the in there.

The next warm up is once again 3 days long before we head into another cold period 25 thru the 15th .

Then it ends.

There was a storm in 2011 I think where it was 36 and raining and there were accidents everywhere due to the ground having been so cold beforehand

[IsentropicLift]

18z GFS is 2"+ of rain for most after 1-3" front end dump.

[forkyfork]

There was a storm in 2011 I think where it was 36 and raining and there were accidents everywhere due to the ground having been so cold beforehand

that was last winter

[TwcMan]

There was a storm in 2011 I think where it was 36 and raining and there were accidents everywhere due to the ground having been so cold beforehand

I think I remember that storm..didn't we get snow and freezing rain the night before? It was within the first week of February, right after 60 inches of snow have fallen in a months time. There was also 2 feet of snow on the ground during that storm.

[Doorman]

 

 

Max Potential?

 

 

 

I have a vibe this thing is going to overperform with snow ,for our area....

[IsentropicLift]

Someone in NE PA is going to see a warning criteria ice storm. Check out Mt Holly's ice potential graphic.

[nycwinter]

there was a ice storm many years ago in nyc where we had like 10 hours of just sleet falling....