PB GFI Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Still mostly concerned with that 42-50 hour overrunning. The NAM really likes it but thus far no other guidance does. If that shortwave hangs on longer than expected before washing out there could be a wide swath of overrunning snows across Ern PA into NYC early Friday morning The Canadian does. WAA is sometimes under modeled. The GFS at 12z hour 54 has no precip but look at its 700 mb field . That looks like it should be snowing there. Curious to see if more guidance picks up on the front side of this before it all flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 is the coast mostly rain? how much snow if any? before change over Depends on he model... Skim through and read my posts regarding The nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I remember a similar storm up here... With 84 as the battle line, 2013 I believe... I lived in Orange County about 10 miles south of 84.. I was suppose to change to rain.... I snowed heavy with a tailend changeover to sleet... Forecast models said rain was going north of 84.... However everyone north of 84 stayed all snow, cold toungue just kept penetratingWas the synoptic setup similar? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS is a bit faster so far also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18Z GFS much slower then NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Very Euro-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Now we may have issue... Lol.. GFS tourches up past Albany, wayyyy west of nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Eps says this is Buffalo, NNY storm.. It's amazing... Idk the last time I saw a 300+ mile range in model guidance less than 4 days out 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gfs west. Terrible for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Everyone south of Albany is pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Everyone south of Albany is pouring I find it hard to believe that this particular arctic air will just escape without a fight so fast and so far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam GFS The low placement at this point, same time frame.. Is well east and quicker than the nam, yet somehow we still tourch... GFS is a more robust system like the euro, nam Is not... I fully expect them To continue the flip flop... Unfortunately flop may stop on the euro solution lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS tracks the low over NYC AND LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I find it hard to believe that this particular arctic air will just escape without a fight so fast and so far north It won't in areas that wedge down in the carolinas and VA. The RGEM came in insanely cold down in WRN VA NC SC and NERN GA. The Euro and GFS aren't seeing that wedge at all. Up this way the wind goes SE and that is the end of it, the wildcard here is if the NAM idea of early overrunning is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It won't in areas that wedge down in the carolinas and VA. The RGEM came in insanely cold down in WRN VA NC SC and NERN GA. The Euro and GFS aren't seeing that wedge at all. Up this way the wind goes SE and that is the end of it, the wildcard here is if the NAM idea of early overrunning is correct yes and the GFS does not have the early overrunning but Upton and Mt. Holly are going with it - I think the GFS is underestimating the cold air and overestimating the ocean SE flow off it effecting the thermal profiles warming everyone up to quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I find it hard to believe that this particular arctic air will just escape without a fight so fast and so far northAll you need is an amplified shortwave and you'd be amazed how quickly it can scour out even unmodified arctic air at the surface on south winds. The argument that a surface low can't plow into even an unmodified arctic dome with 3 feet of snowcover under it is a fallacy. It is very possible and has happened many times. Snow and arctic air entrenched in the boundary layer means nothing to low track, it doesn't "force" the low track to go around it despite false popular belief, all you need is a strong mid/upper level shortwave driving it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Joe Cioffi believes the nam and raised snow estimates. He indicates it's been the most consistent of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 All you need is an amplified shortwave and you'd be amazed how quickly it can scour out even unmodified arctic air at the surface on south winds. The argument that a surface low can't plow into even an unmodified arctic dome with 3 feet of snowcover under it is a fallacy. It is very possible and has happened many times. Snow and arctic air entrenched in the boundary layer means nothing to low track, it doesn't "force" the low track to go around it despite false popular belief, all you need is a strong mid/upper level shortwave driving it... what I am trying to say is that the 1035 HP is parked right over us Sunday night and is putting up a fight against the approaching storm - that type of strong HP doesn't usually leave without a fight - this was no run of the mill arctic airmass - was near or record breaking around the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 what I am trying to say is that the 1035 HP is parked right over us Sunday night and is putting up a fight against the approaching storm - that type of strong HP doesn't usually leave without a fight - this was no run of the mill arctic airmass - was near or record breaking around the region It really won't matter if the models are correct on the track of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Models love to get rid of low level cold way too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 All you need is an amplified shortwave and you'd be amazed how quickly it can scour out even unmodified arctic air at the surface on south winds. The argument that a surface low can't plow into even an unmodified arctic dome with 3 feet of snowcover under it is a fallacy. It is very possible and has happened many times. Snow and arctic air entrenched in the boundary layer means nothing to low track, it doesn't "force" the low track to go around it despite false popular belief, all you need is a strong mid/upper level shortwave driving it... I believe his point is that the models often underestimate the depth of the arctic air until it's actually established over a given area which ultimately drives the forecast outcome. Both of your points can co-exist. In my opinion, there's still way too many fluctuations from run to run to make any sort of prediction at this point, other than that a mixed bag is likely. How much of each is to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Joe cioffi raised snow amounts because of the nam. He has a few inches for nyc then ice then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It really won't matter if the models are correct on the track of this storm. We need to get good overrunning precip at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Joe Cioffi believes the nam and raised snow estimates. He indicates it's been the most consistent of all the models. Only problem with this is nam only runs to 84hrs.. So the the storms really only been on it for 3 runs, to show track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 All you need is an amplified shortwave and you'd be amazed how quickly it can scour out even unmodified arctic air at the surface on south winds. The argument that a surface low can't plow into even an unmodified arctic dome with 3 feet of snowcover under it is a fallacy. It is very possible and has happened many times. Snow and arctic air entrenched in the boundary layer means nothing to low track, it doesn't "force" the low track to go around it despite false popular belief, all you need is a strong mid/upper level shortwave driving it... Your not going to be happy until it's 70 in February. Water temps are way down its the heart of snow season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 gefs? Lol it's kinda comical, for the most part, the members that were west with little snow, are now east and good interior snow, and the members that had good snows are now west like the op.. Can't make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Comparison of GEFS 12z 18z They don't seem much different to me, other than members flip flopping.. Maybe even a bit snowier.. Less members are complete misses and with the exception of 2 members their mostly all snowier than 12z... So freaking odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Haven't noticed any updates to the NWS snowfall maps from either the Philly or NYC offices, although I know sometimes they update, but I can't see them (haven't figured that out yet). Anyone seen any updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Give me 2.9" to get to normal and call it a storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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