UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 after the front end of the precip 18Z NAM has a break in the precip 12k same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That's the 32km... It's useless and way off time will tell if its useless...so many different solutions with all the models - don't know which ones to trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam wants to turn everyone back over to snow, interior crusher on nam... VERY good run for city and NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 time will tell if its useless... Most sites don't even offer 32k nam... The point is that it doesn't pick up on all the precip EVER... This not my opinion but a fact, the composite reflectivity is not depicted well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Very interesting to see the nam so much colder and east.... how well did it do the past,3 storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam is HEAVY snow for NWNJ as this pulls out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What the NAM had over the 81 corridor in PA on 12z is now near the 95 corridor at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam wants to turn everyone back over to snow, interior crusher on nam... VERY good run for city and NNJ like I mentioned earlier in the day - a near record arctic outbreak does not just go away quietly so fast....and you are not going to get much help in warming the atmosphere with 34 - 35 degree water temps in mid Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam has a jackpot zone NWNJ now too lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam flips some to rain as it pulls out.. This would not be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at 2mt, 500-850... This is incorrect depiction, everyone west of that cold toungue is back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam flips some to rain as it pulls out.. This would not be the caseThe NAM is giving no respect to the WAR. It is too far east IMO. It is now the furthest east of any model run since last night. Not surprising since its out of it's range still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here's how close the city came Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at 2mt, 500-850... This is incorrect depiction, everyone west of that cold toungue is back to snow Hey where you get that WxBell Map ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 The NAM is giving no respect to the WAR. It is too far east IMO. It is now the furthest east of any model run since last night. Not surprising since its out of it's range still Nam isn't that east with the low, tracks over NYC, it's just much weaker... Nam and GFS are only off by about 25 miles with the low placement.. GFS has low over jersey shore, nam has it 25 miles offshore... The key is weaker system, that deepens well after its moved east and heads up coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hey where you get that WxBell Map ? It's weather bell, a paid site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 4K nam towards its end is same as 12k... Maybe a bit better, it's got the Lowe nearly 75 miles east same time frame aka a quicker solution, looks to keep NYC heavy snow for several hours longer than even the 12k... Then maybe flip back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam isn't that east with the low, tracks over NYC, it's just much weaker... Nam and GFS are only off by about 25 miles with the low placement.. GFS has low over jersey shore, nam has it 25 miles offshore... The key is weaker system, that deepens well after its moved east and heads up coast bust potential is above average with this storm IMO - probably greater then any storm so far this winter - I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast and snow amounts and ice amounts change for certain areas of the metro as the storm is in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 bust potential is above average with this storm IMO - probably greater then any storm so far this winter - I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast and snow amounts change for certain areas of the metro as the storm is in progress I'd be very concerned if I was in central Pa, and central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 4K nam says NYC and NNJ sees 4-6" front dump and heavy sleet after that.. Doesn't run further after that yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 I swear upon everything... If this storm trends Far East... And south of 84 through NYC jackpots... I may need counceling #betternothappen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Still mostly concerned with that 42-50 hour overrunning. The NAM really likes it but thus far no other guidance does. If that shortwave hangs on longer than expected before washing out there could be a wide swath of overrunning snows across Ern PA into NYC early Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This storm reminds me of many systems from last Winter. The models indicated a strong cutter days in advance only to have the storm get shredded by the polar vortex, resulting in a much colder scenario for the metro with moderate snow and freezing rain. I'd gladly take a solution like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Still mostly concerned with that 42-50 hour overrunning. The NAM really likes it but thus far no other guidance does. If that shortwave hangs on longer than expected before washing out there could be a wide swath of overrunning snows across Ern PA into NYC early Friday morningfriday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks to me like a waste of 2" of liquid equivalent! It also self-cleans anything it puts down early. NAM could get us a frontal 3". If this had a chance to go back to snow then an all snow or all rain event would have been more likely, since switching precip. types is probably rare. Jan. 1978 good example of a predicted snow-rain-snow event that went all snow, with the r/s line doing battle with itself just some 30 miles from NYC all night. Freezing drizzle at the end put a glaze on 14", when just 3"-5" and a changeover were called for. I remember a similar storm up here... With 84 as the battle line, 2013 I believe... I lived in Orange County about 10 miles south of 84.. I was suppose to change to rain.... I snowed heavy with a tailend changeover to sleet... Forecast models said rain was going north of 84.... However everyone north of 84 stayed all snow, cold toungue just kept penetrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 anybody have an analog event for this setup ? An analog where a near record arctic outbreak here was followed within 24 - 48 hours by a storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 EPS is still crazy warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Eps says this is Buffalo, NNY storm.. It's amazing... Idk the last time I saw a 300+ mile range in model guidance less than 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Eps says this is Buffalo, NNY storm.. It's amazing... Idk the last time I saw a 300+ mile range in model guidance less than 4 days out Story of this winter. Every model has been struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 is the coast mostly rain? how much snow if any? before change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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