snowman19 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There never seemed to be much hope for this as a true snow maker and I'm quickly losing interest today for there to be any hope. Front end snow, freezing rain to rain.It's been the identity of this storm all along and it's how it shall be. It is, what it is. This is not a good freezing rain setup at all for the metro area. There will be big warm air advection at the surface. I think it goes quickly from snow, to a brief period of sleet then a quick change to all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is not a good freezing rain setup at all for the metro area. There will be big warm air advection at the surface. I think it goes quickly from snow, to a brief period of sleet then a quick change to all rain Thats always been the case, he lives 50+ miles north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thats always been the case, he lives 50+ miles north lol I don't think anyone is arguing that well north and west of the city will see some snow whether it;s only a couple inches or a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is not a good freezing rain setup at all for the metro area. There will be big warm air advection at the surface. I think it goes quickly from snow, to a brief period of sleet then a quick change to all rain One thing that could be an issue and has not been mentioned but should is ground temps lagging air temps for any extended period of time. In areas where temps are borderline this could present a fairly bad situation with surface icing on solid surfaces and to a certain extant trees and wires. The current ice box will chill ground temps rapidly, especially if it's clear at night with radiation cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don't think anyone is arguing that well north and west of the city will see some snow whether it;s only a couple inches or a bit more. The post wasn't about snow... It was about ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nothing like being too far west and north all season, then being too far south and east lmao... Ahhh good stuff You just can't make it up this year. If it can go wrong in the HV this year it will go wrong. The last indignity for this season will be snow in Washington DC and rain in the HV. I don't think I've ever seen that setup, but this is the year it will happen. That's what will finally drive me to the edge. This storm was modeled that way for a couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam seems fairly unchanged so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Maybe a better WAA snow out in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Def a bit faster this run, already snowing into All of WVA by 03z monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 9z heavy snow into WV and Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Heavy snow into all VA, light snow into south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 9z heavy snow into WV and Va Looks like a better run for snow at the start . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like a better run for snow at the start . Kinda odd tho, quicker with WAA snows and precip, yet the low develops nearly 100 miles west same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Light snow engulfs all of jersey by 15z Monday, almost to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You just can't make it up this year. If it can go wrong in the HV this year it will go wrong. The last indignity for this season will be snow in Washington DC and rain in the HV. I don't think I've ever seen that setup, but this is the year it will happen. That's what will finally drive me to the edge. This storm was modeled that way for a couple of runs. Is there any access to annual snowfall totals for around Orange County going back to 1980? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Is there any access to annual snowfall totals for your region going back to 1980? Ask SNYWX, I've seen him play them before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 The entire forum is light snow by 18z monday Correction: moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nothing like being too far west and north all season, then being too far south and east lmao... Ahhh good stuffWe are the screw zone champion of the winter so far and I don't expect that to change. This is one winter I will happily say goodbye to. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Mod to heavy snow for all by 21z monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 By 00z Tuesday city is under heavy snow as well as NNJ, central jersey has changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Is there any access to annual snowfall totals for around Orange County going back to 1980?There are no official records that I've ever come across, I found the COOP data to be inconsistent but it's all I've found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 New nam is about 0.3-0.4" QPF before changeover. Nice 3-4" region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 O3z Tuesdays, everywhere between 84 and NYC are heavy icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam is a pretty serious ice event between CITY AND 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam is significantly colder and southeast of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam is alot colder than last run and way weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 He city is so close to remaining ALL frozen on nam.. NNJ never goes rain only mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 after the front end of the precip 18Z NAM has a break in the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Snow88, on 13 Feb 2016 - 3:38 PM, said:Nam is alot colder than last run and way weaker Which is interesting as the NAM is almost always overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 after the front end precip which is all snow the NAM has a break in the precip after 0Z Tuesday That's the 32km... It's useless and way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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