UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEM bring LP right over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS/nam/GGEM are almost identical... Hard to hug the euro still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is storm is 1-3 inches to start for the coast/ 2-4 for inland areas then rain except for well inland. Nothing new here. 1 to 3 is good. Selfishly only 4.5 needed to reach season average of 30 for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEM bring LP right over nyc Ugly for most people. Little snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Bottom line is it is going to be a mess with more frozen the further north and west. Models will continue to waffle on details, but the general idea of a frozen to liquid event is pretty set. The kicker is a sort of wild card, but I am not expecting much substantial. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Bottom line is it is going to be a mess with more frozen the further north and west. Models will continue to waffle on details, but the general idea of a frozen to liquid event is pretty set. The kicker is a sort of wild card, but I am not expecting much substantial. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk We've seen this set up ALOT with ptype issues, 84 is usually ALWAYS the battle ground...I expect some of the colder air is a bit underestimated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Still very close call for a lot of interior sections.. Next 2 days should be fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Early call would be 1-3" front end dump city, 3-5 NW burbs, 4-7 extreme NW burbs, and 8+" beyond that as you get up north and west of ulster and Sullivan, specifically westwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 State college might finally be in the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Still very close call for a lot of interior sections.. Next 2 days should be fun to track Upton is saying the same in their AFD this morning. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 930 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING DURING THE DAY. ALOFT...AMPLIFYING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SENDS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY INTO A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT STILL SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PHASING OF ENERGIES REMAINS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING AS THIS ENERGY IS EMANATING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND IS COMING ASHORE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS ENERGY AMPLIFIES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW. IT IS AFTER THIS TIME THAT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS STILL SHOW SPREAD WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE EXACT THERMAL PROFILES AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE END UP SEEING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW TO MOVE FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SE CANADA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FORECAST DUE TO THE REMAINING MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING/TRACK/INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NIGHT INTO TUE BASED ON SOME CONVERGENCE IN TIMING OF SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN .05 INCHES QPF DURING THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 State college might finally be in the sweet spot Congrats Henry Marquistity and JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Early call would be 1-3" front end dump city, 3-5 NW burbs, 4-7 extreme NW burbs, and 8+" beyond that as you get up north and west of ulster and Sullivan, specifically westwards Anyone N of 84 should watch this.. Its too close to call. Im loving the MSV area to get smoked though. Sullivan county is long over due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 2-3" liquid for many of us on both the GFS and GGEM with not much snow at all except for NW areas. NAM is 2-4" snow before the changeover with 1.5-2" liquid for most. So, either way it looks like it will be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 State college might finally be in the sweet spot Going to depend how much precip gets into the cold sector. Some runs have been less than generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Albany's take this far- SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...ALTHOUGH WARMER AIR COULD CHANGE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 WAR is stronger on the UKMET than the GFS so it has a warmer further west LP track. UK.gif GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif War? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 War? Western Atlantic Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Western Atlantic RidgeIn February no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ah! Thanks haven't heard that used before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In February no less. LOL-I was thinking that too-usually don't hear the term outside of May-Sept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euros east What? It's warmer than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Man that euro is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Man that euro is ugly Explain Please?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The Euro is warm as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yep..story of the season so far. 12z Euro comes west from 0z. It worked out for us with the 2 big snows which came NW right until model time. All winter it comes to the party late and follows the other models. It will probaly be the same on Sunday and come east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Trend is northwest but euro is an outlier. I know this isnt a storm for the coast but I want some front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Upton is saying the same in their AFD this morning. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 930 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING DURING THE DAY. ALOFT...AMPLIFYING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SENDS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY INTO A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT STILL SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PHASING OF ENERGIES REMAINS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING AS THIS ENERGY IS EMANATING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND IS COMING ASHORE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS ENERGY AMPLIFIES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW. IT IS AFTER THIS TIME THAT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS STILL SHOW SPREAD WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE EXACT THERMAL PROFILES AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE END UP SEEING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW TO MOVE FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SE CANADA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FORECAST DUE TO THE REMAINING MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING/TRACK/INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NIGHT INTO TUE BASED ON SOME CONVERGENCE IN TIMING OF SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN .05 INCHES QPF DURING THIS TIME. The long range part of the AFD was not updated at 9:30 am - that part was written at 4:30 am and has not changed. Need to click on "highlight changed discussion" to see what part is new (usually just the short term/near term get updated). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The Euro's east, it's west...always best when one person does the pbp. Anyway, people have been down on the Euro because it "missed" the blizzard. Remember, it was the model that very consistently had the storm/blizzard for days before, but just failed to catch on to the northward shift at the end (but did catch it the night before), so it wasn't a complete miss - NAM schooled all the models at the end on that one. Plus, iirc, the Euro nailed these last two "events" pretty well that had advisories for NYC and eastern NJ, with neither verifying. So, maybe it's right despite being the furthest west (won't be the first time and it's still the best model). System won't be on shore until tonight, so tonight's runs will be really important, as we all know how critical initial condition accuracy is with chaotic systems like the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There never seemed to be much hope for this as a true snow maker and I'm quickly losing interest today for there to be any hope. Front end snow, freezing rain to rain.It's been the identity of this storm all along and it's how it shall be. It is, what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 There never seemed to be much hope for this as a true snow maker and I'm quickly losing interest today for there to be any hope. Front end snow, freezing rain to rain.It's been the identity of this storm all along and it's how it shall be. It is, what it is. Nothing like being too far west and north all season, then being too far south and east lmao... Ahhh good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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