MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yup, with the initial wave a good 1-3"/2-4" dump before any changeover for all of NJ/NYC Metro Yep Nam was much more amped this run as oppose to 06 Still a messy look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 2-4" snow on the 12z NAM followed by very heavy rain Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 A change to rain seems inevitable for all here. Just a question of how much rain and warmth. Whatever snow or ice falls, I would like to keep most of it. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Interesting set-up and three things to watch for IMO for this: 1) Initial wave with 1-3"/2-4" on the front end before a changeover 2) Possible change on the back-end of follow up frontal feature, precip is slow to move out and not impossible to get 1-2" on the back-end if timing works out right 3) Follow up clipper/low, depending on track this could be the biggest threat for more than 3" Either way interesting set-up and most on the forum should see accumulating snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam What are the current water temps along the NY and NJ coastline ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The disturbance or weak low behind this storm looks much more interesting for something. Getting ahead of things sure with needing to see how this first system behaves and scoots out but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The disturbance or weak low behind this storm looks much more interesting for something. Getting ahead of things sure with needing to see how this first system behaves and scoots out but something to watch. That looks like a lose lose for us IMO. If this first system ends up very strong that trailing system takes a more favorable track for snow here but it probably washes out. If the first system is flat, the second system stays more potent but it may track so far north we are into south winds and see more of a mix or a dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What are the current water temps along the NY and NJ coastline ? Nam With water temps in the mid 30's I don't think that NAM snow map will verify - only within a couple miles of the coast will the just enough warmer air penetrate ( especially with a weaker system ) to cause a mix or changeover. So frozen should last longer then advertized more then a mile or 2 inland IMO - I have seen this happen numerous times in Ocean County NJ - would change to rain up to about Silverton in Toms River and Lakewood about 7 miles away inland would remain frozen https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 With water temps in the mid 30's I don't think that NAM snow map will verify - only within a couple miles of the coast will the just enough warmer air penetrate ( especially with a weaker system ) to cause a mix or changeover. So frozen should last longer then advertized more then a mile or 2 inland IMO https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html Weaker system would allow more front end but eventually will change people over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 With water temps in the mid 30's I don't think that NAM snow map will verify - only within a couple miles of the coast will the just enough warmer air penetrate ( especially with a weaker system ) to cause a mix or changeover. So frozen should last longer then advertised more then a mile or 2 inland IMO https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html I've been pushing the water temps aspect for a few days now and nobody wanted to listen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 I've been pushing the water temps aspect for a few days now and nobody wanted to listen That's because an eastern solution is just not possible... IMPOSSIBLE, and you should stop wishcasting... Jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I've been pushing the water temps aspect for a few days now and nobody wanted to listen Well I am listening - the thing that caught my eye was that snow map and the changeover was being caused by the model using the water temps to change it over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That's because an eastern solution is just not possible... IMPOSSIBLE, and you should stop wishcasting... Jk he is not wishcasting IMO this has nothing to do with an eastern solution it has to do with the water temps being so close to freezing and a weak flow off the water - this time of year water temps need a stronger flow to penetrate inland away from the coast .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 he is not wishcasting IMO this has nothing to do with an eastern solution it has to do with the water temps being so close to freezing and a weak flow off the water - this time of year water temps need a stronger flow to penetrate inland away from the coast ..He did add jk at the end.... Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 he is not wishcasting IMO this has nothing to do with an eastern solution it has to do with the water temps being so close to freezing and a weak flow off the water - this time of year water temps need a stronger flow to penetrate inland away from the coast .. It was heavy sarcasm, i thought it was obvious lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS has a little better organized low but warm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It was, all good. I have been saying that the water temps have a significant effect on the sensible weather along and inland on the east coast though. Earlier this season storms were following a baroclinic ribbon influenced (in part) by some really warm water offshore. As that water cools (imho) there is a better chance for storms to take, what has been called, a more traditional track with the coast changing to rain while inland areas receive more frozen precip as storms are able to stay closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS is snow, to a major interior ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 the 12Z GFS is slower with the onset of precip which gives more time for the cold enough air for snow to escape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS is snow, to a major interior ice storm Better organized but nothing like Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 the 12Z GFS is slower with the onset of precip which gives more time for the cold enough air for snow to escape Yep. We will see who is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS looks like another good front end with 2-4" then a changeover to rain, but kicker looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS before rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS looks like another good front end with 2-4" then a changeover to rain, but kicker looks interesting. The kicker is no big deal on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 prob a 1-3 inches for the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The kicker is no big deal on the GFS -5 AT 850 DP close to 30 around KNYC It is reading 33 as rain , it`s not . SI N and W are S here . Does not look like a robust system , but something to keep an eye on as it has trended to a colder solution over the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEM is a bit slower and more amped... Gonna be west of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 the 12Z GFS is slower with the onset of precip which gives more time for the cold enough air for snow to escape Please clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is storm is 1-3 inches to start for the coast/ 2-4 for inland areas then rain except for well inland. Nothing new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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