Animal Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 early morning call from My Holly NWS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHTSNOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THESNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY DURING THEMORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND SHOULD CAUSETEMPERATURES TO RISE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN ALONGTHE COAST AND INLAND AS FAR AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURINGTHE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ONTHE COASTAL PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT, GENERALLY ANINCH OR LESS.A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME LOCATED OVEROUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO OURREGION. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNINGIN THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA ANDNORTHERN NEW JERSEY BUT NOT BEFORE THE SNOW ACCUMULATES TO ABOUT 2TO 4 INCHES. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION THROUGH FREEZING RAIN INOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT.THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. LIQUIDPRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES MAY BE COMMON FROM THEINTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 0.75TO 1.50 INCHES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BASED ON THE LATEST FORECASTGUIDANCE. WE CONTINUE TO BE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIALFOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND IN AREAS OFPOOR DRAINAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 06z gfs is another interior crush job, very dangerous ice event for counties just N+W of NYC in NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wow, this would be a MAJOR ice storm for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GEFS are much less amped and fairly east... Sullivan county jackpot on many members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This storm may wind up being a real mess, ice, snow, flooding from heavy rains and high winds, everything but the kitchen sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Exactly... Who posted the DGEX from before? Lmao... Imagine if that POS scored a coup and everyone got a big storm, would be hilariousThat was me.On a side note, the crappy CRAS has probably been the most consistent of any model irt to this threat. Still shows a weaker less amped system which is more like a fropa (remember that HP rushing in from the Midwest I posted a map of on the 18z nam?) then stalls the front along or just off the coast with a weak wave or 2 of slp riding along it. All precip mostly frozen DC-NYC. Correct verbatim? Probably not but I know this model's biases rather well and overamplifying and wrapping up slp is one of them. When it doesn't show a low folllwing it's bias in this type of situation it raises a red flag for me and suggests that perhaps these weaker, more strung out scenarios (18z nam, 0z cmc) may in fact hold some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 That was me. On a side note, the crappy CRAS has probably been the most consistent of any model irt to this threat. Still shows a weaker less amped system which is more like a fropa (remember that HP rushing in from the Midwest I posted a map of on the 18z nam?) then stalls the front along or just off the coast with a weak wave or 2 of slp riding along it. All precip mostly frozen DC-NYC. Correct verbatim? Probably not but I know this model's biases rather well and overamplifying and wrapping up slp is one of them. When it doesn't show a low folllwing it's bias in this type of situation it raises a red flag for me and suggests that perhaps these weaker, more strung out scenarios (18z nam, 0z cmc) may in fact hold some merit. Yea it was a good OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gfs and nam way less amped for next weeks storm Euro is also going that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gfs and nam way less amped for next weeks storm Euro is also going that way GGEM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEM too FWIW, SREF doesnt even have a low. Looks like a weak wave riding the front. I think the more flat this is, the better the chance of frozen precip especially at the start will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 FWIW, SREF doesnt even have a low. Looks like a weak wave riding the front. I think the more flat this is, the better the chance of frozen precip especially at the start will be. Doesn't matter how flat or amped the system is for snow when precip starts either way it starts as snow everywhere - their is nothing to keep the cold enough air locked in for an extended period - in fact the flatter weaker scenario might lead to less precip at the start thus less snow - regardless it will change to all rain the closer to the coast you are - maybe in the immediate metro we can squeeze an inch or 2 of snow out of this if we are lucky IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Doesn't matter how flat or amped the system is for snow when precip starts either way it starts as snow everywhere - their is nothing to keep the cold enough air locked in for an extended period - in fact the flatter weaker scenario might lead to less precip at the start thus less snow - regardless it will change to all rain the closer to the coast you are - maybe in the immediate metro we can squeeze an inch or 2 of snow out of this if we are lucky IMO. Well more east and flatter will be more colder air. I will be fine with 1-2 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 As per their overnight model diagnostic discussion, WPC is preferring a faster, less amplified solution and going with a blend of 12z/00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well more east and flatter will be more colder air. I will be fine with 1-2 inches of snow.I just want KNYC to get over 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 As per their overnight model diagnostic discussion, WPC is preferring a faster, less amplified solution and going with a blend of 12z/00z GFS. got a link ? did they mention the follow up LP right behind the first one ? The first wave might drag down cold enough air so that the second one is frozen or partially frozen with the right track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 got a link ? did they mention the follow up LP right behind the first one ? The first wave might drag down cold enough air so that the second one is frozen or partially frozen with the right track... http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd ..DEVELOPING SRN STREAM STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC SUN INTO TUE MRNG... PREFERENCE:12Z/00Z GFS BLEND FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MAIN TREND IN THE NAM AND GFS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IS TO SHOW LESS AMPLIFICATION WITH LEAD S/WV THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN SEWD THRU THE CNTL OR SRN PLAINS AS THESE MODELS SHOW A STGR TRAILING S/WV DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY AS OPPOSED TO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY TUES MRNG. THE END RESULT IS A MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED EJECTION OF LEAD S/WV TOWARD THE MID ATLC REGION TUES MRNG COMPARED TO THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED 12Z EC/UKMET SOLNS. WHILE THE 18Z GFS WAS EVEN QUICKER..ITS SOLN WAS FASTER THAN THE 18Z GEFS ENSEMBLE. WHILE THERE STILL SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS OF SOLNS WITH THE 12Z EC AND 12Z UKMET OFFERING THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLNS..WITH THE TREND OF THE MODELS SLOWING MORE DIGGING OF S/WV ENERGY THRU THE MID MS VALLEY BY TUES MRNG...THIS WOULD SUGGEST A QUICKER EJECTION OF LEAD S/WV. A PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE WOULD BE TO AVERAGE OUT THE 12Z AND 00Z GFS SOLNS WHICH WOULD BE SOMEWHAT FASTER AND FLATTER SOLN TO THE 12Z EC/12Z UKMET. UPDATED LOOK AT BOTH THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z EC...BOTH HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE 12Z AND 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I just want KNYC to get over 30 inches I want us to get over 40 inches. Almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam looks to be faster than 06 yet again, with better WAA snows out ahead so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I just want KNYC to get over 30 inches what is the KNYC total right now? 29? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 what is the KNYC total right now? 29? 29.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 No real changes on the 12z NAM through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam Is still 10-15F when light snow loves into PA and parts of WNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Most of jersey is light snow by 15z Monday, on NYC doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Entire area is light/ moderate snow by hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Mod/heavy snow for parts of central jersey into NYC by 18z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 NYC/Long island, and central jersey northward are ripping snow 21z Monday... Gonna be a really good front end dump for NYC IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 By 00z Tuesday south of Rockland has changed over, heavy snow north and west of Rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 By 06z Tuesday everyone south of 84 is rain, north is mix almost to Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yup, with the initial wave a good 1-3"/2-4" dump before any changeover for all of NJ/NYC Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam was much more amped this run as oppose to 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.