UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEM is probably absolute best case scenario for interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Haven't looked closely but I'd say anyone North of 84, or West of 87 in NW burbs is a crush job on GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Parts of NE PA and NW jersey get hit good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is looking like a snow to rain event for the city and more N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is looking like a snow to rain event for the city and more N&W This is looking like a snow to rain event for the city and more N&W If GGEM were correct I'm not 100% the city can't stay snow, or atleast heavy mix, especially this far out, if this storm trends east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEM is probably absolute best case scenario for interior 2 inches for NYC. Inland gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is looking like a snow to rain event for the city and more N&W Use to be the norm around here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Parts of jersey get crushed too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Use to be the norm around here lolOh trust me I remember lol. This storm will humble us coast people a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 In reality GGEM is let far off from GFS, slightly less amped, and ever so slightly east, and a tad colder as a result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wow that UKMET hasn't budged one bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ukie is west of the 12z run and ugly for most people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm still staying level though.... Slightly excited by the possibility, but level... We've been burnt too much, I'd rather worry about ptype issues than precip not getting here... euro worries meI think you'll do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 I dont expect the ukie or euro to waver.. Just as in the blizzard, my opinion is that those 2 are usually set in their ways, the ukie and euro will either be 100% correct and score big, or whiff like they did with the blizzard.... I doubt they waver tho from what they're showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The UK is much slower than the GFS and CMC as well. By 96 on both those models, the storm has already gone well into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 hour 84 on cmc, north west CT is 30℉ while north east CT is 50℉ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 The UK is much slower than the GFS and CMC as well. By 96 on both those models, the storm has already gone well into New England. The good, the bad, and the ugly The good- NAM/GGEM/GFS are all fairly similar with slight variances 3 days out... The bad- All have 3 have repeatedly flip flopped however in solutions run to run The ugly- ukmet/Euro are hell bent on an inland runner and won't budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The good, the bad, and the ugly The good- NAM/GGEM/GFS are all fairly similar with slight variances 3 days out... The bad- All have 3 have repeatedly flip flopped however in solutions run to run The ugly- ukmet/Euro are hell bent on an inland runner and won't budge It's all going to come down to timing, as discussed. Storm gets in faster, the high is still in place enough that it forces the storm to slide more south and east and keep the cold locked in. Slow it down, and you got the storm allowed to move inland and temps surging with the high having retreated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's all going to come down to timing, as discussed. Storm gets in faster, the high is still in place enough that it forces the storm to slide more south and east and keep the cold locked in. Slow it down, and you got the storm allowed to move inland and temps surging with the high having retreated. Exactly... Who posted the DGEX from before? Lmao... Imagine if that POS scored a coup and everyone got a big storm, would be hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GEFS moved west. Snow to rain for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Also GGEM is a pretty heavy ice event for several hours for interior areas like Rockland, Orange, ulster, dutchess, putnum into CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GEFS moved west. Snow to rain for the majority. The flip flop continues.. They came east with the GFS and back west with it again.. Expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Also the GEFS members, I just took a peak.. Are ALL over the place with that low placement AND timing.. It's a model mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Also the GEFS members, I just took a peak.. Are ALL over the place with that low placement AND timing.. It's a model mess None of them look like the Ukie or Euro, maybe 1 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 None of them look like the Ukie or Euro, maybe 1 or 2. How many look like the ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEM ensembles are similiar to the op, maybe slightly west. Looks like a good front end thump. How many look like the ggem? Looks like the low goes just inland and then north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Still wont draw any conclusions...we've seen big shifts 3 days out, night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If you're looking for snow the other thing to watch is if the lead shortwave at 48-60 hours can either hold on longer before washing out and drying over OH. That could produce more overrunning snow as it bumps into the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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