SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 One thing I am noting on guidance today is that HP is trying to build in more rapidly right behind this storm. Granted it doesnt appear as an arctic airmass but maybe just cold enough? There is more of a squeeze play happening with HP trying to rush in from the West, the front itself, and HP to the East with the pig 500mb ridge out in the Atlantic showing stronger each run. The Euro is insanely cold behind the storm vs other models because it pulls down so much cold air due to the stronger low. As a matter of fact, the clipper is in South Carolina on the Euro when it was more over SNJ on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The euro has been pretty consistent with its solution. While in the end it may be a bit more east, I think it has the right idea. Both the Euro and the GFS have a deep low pressure system near 40N. If the surface low tracks overhead, we'll rain heavily then dry slot. If the system tracks just East like the GFS shows then we'll start as a little snow and quickly flip to very heavy rain. If the low tracks far enough West we'll get less rain but the winds will be significant. No matter what solution you choose, rain, and lots of rain is on the table. You don't even have a CCB where you could get some dynamic cooling. You flood the mid-upper levels with the WAA and then you bring the moisture surge North with the surface low. In fact the closer the cold air is to the area, the more lift we will have and the more rain we will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It almost will definitely end up east, only about 1 in 100 lows take a track like that, it's been about 7-8 years since I last remember one doing so A track similar to the GFS (Either over NJ or just offshore) is very likely IMO. Bad for snow lovers and great for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 A track similar to the GFS (Either over NJ or just offshore) is very likely IMO. Bad for snow lovers and great for Yeah that makes sense, I doubt the Apps runner though since usually they are east or west. I still think there may be a couple of inches of snow with this, even at the coast to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Look at how far west the trough goes negative, it has to go inland, it can do nothing but be an inside runner, plus there is no blocking at all in front of it. Anyone who thinks this is going to turn into a snow event is going to be very severely disappointed. It is a rainstorm all the way, we are out of the game folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah that makes sense, I doubt the Apps runner though since usually they are east or west. I still think there may be a couple of inches of snow with this, even at the coast to start Depending on how strong the WAA push is I could definitely see some snows at the start but I think the changever for pretty much everyone is unavoidable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Look at how far west the trough goes negative, it has to go inland, it can do nothing but be an inside runner, plus there is no blocking at all in front of it. Anyone who thinks this is going to turn into a snow event is going to be very severely disappointed. It is a rainstorm all the way, we are out of the game folks No one said a snowstorm on the coast. Snow at the start is quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Depending on how strong the WAA push is I could definitely see some snows at the start but I think the changever for pretty much everyone is unavoidable at this point.Ditto. Expecting maybe an inch or two where I am before a quick transition to heavy rain. Could end as a period of snow but the jury is still out on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is flatter and more east. Looks like good front end thump and then some rain. Low goes over NYC but weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS flatter so far Yeah it's much flatter, but the theme is the same. Surface low develops near the Delmarva, then tracks inland over SNE. Took a few NAM pills before running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah it's much flatter, but the theme is the same. Surface low develops near the Delmarva, then tracks inland over SNE. Took a few NAM pills before running. lol@ these models.. GFS is really ugly for those expecting snow in western NY/PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think the second SW is interesting on this run... look how much more it digs. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Western MA jackpots with 4-6" lmao... This is just good stuff guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Wow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The GFS blows up the trailing shortwave so we get another event Tuesday night into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The GFS can sometimes outperform the euro on Northern stream energy as a matter of fact with this system the GFS outperformed the euro at 168 to 192 hours when it thought this was a gulf coast storm and the GFS never really bought that idea so it would be interesting to see if once again the GFS is going to be right here because it sees northern stream influence the Euro does not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 2nd wave is acting like a kicker on the GFS. I think we would have a better chance with the 2nd one that's if the gfs is right in not phasing that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is a pretty major snow event for interior between the intiall storm and the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 thursday after both waves pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 meanwhile the EPS continues to support the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Western MA jackpots with 4-6" lmao... This is just good stuff guysAnother run, another solution from the flip flopping GFS. The Euro has been the most consistent, unwavering model, operational and ensembles and its solution makes sense given the pattern and setup. I'm sure the GFS will have a totally different solution at 0z. I'm sticking with the Euro for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Snow a the start doesn't count if it all melts before the storm is over. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Another run, another solution from the flip flopping GFS. The Euro has been the most consistent, unwavering model, operational and ensembles and its solution makes sense given the pattern and setup. I'm sure the GFS will have a totally different solution at 0z. I'm sticking with the Euro for this one GFS,GGEM,Nam vs Euro, EPS and Ukie. Any solution is possible. Watch out for the kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS,GGEM,Nam vs Euro, EPS and Ukie. Any solution is possible. Watch out for the kicker.so i guess we shouldn't try to figure out what's the most likely solution because "anything is possible" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 lol@ these models.. GFS is really ugly for those expecting snow in western NY/PA Biggest losers on the 18z GFS include Binghamton. Biggest gainers are any ski area to the east and northeast of there. Still rain on the coast after an initial thump, but I'd vote for this solution for socio-economic reasons. Alas, I cannot offer any scientific reasons to accept or deny the 18z GFS solution. The follow up wave on the 18z is very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS looks flatter compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sref looks like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sref looks like the gfsNearly identical, 2mt 0c line is exactly the sameReally decent front end dump, before changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Another 75 mile shift east and we'd be in business. Won't be easy though with that pig ridge out in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 this would be a colossal fail for the Euro 4 days out. wound up bomb over State college vs the nam and GFS which almost look like a frontal passage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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