UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I know it's usually the kiss of death, but instead of clogging up the banter or Feb disco with analaysis and model runs, within 5 days it should have its own page... As of now it's GFS and its Ens support of a coastal storm Euro shows an inland runner with rain for most here GGEM flip flops Ukmet agrees with euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z GFS crushes interior, lots of sleet for the rest of the sub forum, and then changing to rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I know it early but what are the chances for any snow out of this. Since temps will be hovering over freezing point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 I know it early but what are the chances for any snow out of this. Since temps will be hovering over freezing point. 100% depends on track, which depends on when the low closes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 My only concern would be the ridging over the Northern Atlantic, forcing this to stay west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 We could of used some blocking in this setup to lock in that high. Been pretty much non existent this winter. Going to need the perfect track to get any meaningful snows out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The trend west/north on storms this year because of the strong Atlantic ridge gives me a bad vibe for anywhere near the coast for this. If it's already a mix at this juncture, it could be an Appalachian special by the time it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm 100% against starting storm threads outside day(s) 4/5 but I'll keep this open. So much can change between now and event time. Keep it clean. Even though this whole thread is banter at this point, post banter in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The trend west/north on storms this year because of the strong Atlantic ridge gives me a bad vibe for anywhere near the coast for this. If it's already a mix at this juncture, it could be an Appalachian special by the time it verifies.That's the exact storm I have been waiting for all winter. Not becaus I want rain but because it's bound to happen with the strong Nino. This is the type of storm where a place like mt pocono could see 2' and the city 2". I think this is a great storm for the mountains and I'm definitely going snow boarding next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS 18z for next Tuesday...I like the setup of this storm. Looks explosive and I think we could end up being a 6-12 inches of snow for our area as long as everything goes as depicted. The ground is getting very cold at this time, I don't think we'll have any problems sticking. We just need to dynamic cooling and we'll have a nice snowstorm in our hands, days after historic Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 So this is for next Tuesdays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That's the exact storm I have been waiting for all winter. Not becaus I want rain but because it's bound to happen with the strong Nino. This is the type of storm where a place like mt pocono could see 2' and the city 2". I think this is a great storm for the mountains and I'm definitely going snow boarding next weekend I really feel for those guys those winter and they deserve some bombs like these this winter. Ski country has been getting killed in the Catskills and Poconos this winter. It sucks that I'll be home when this might be happening and I missed the late January blizzard, but many more people's livelihoods in those areas depend on snow than around NYC. My folks aren't going to like how much I'm going to turn up the heat in the house when I come back Saturday. Near 80 on Friday in Austin and sunny to near 0 Saturday night in NYC. OUCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I really feel for those guys those winter and they deserve some bombs like these this winter. Ski country has been getting killed in the Catskills and Poconos this winter. It sucks that I'll be home when this might be happening and I missed the late January blizzard, but many more people's livelihoods in those areas depend on snow than around NYC. My folks aren't going to like how much I'm going to turn up the heat in the house when I come back Saturday. Near 80 on Friday in Austin and sunny to near 0 Saturday night in NYC. OUCH. All of ski country has been killed this year.. Englishtown had more snow than Svt as of 2/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 What's amazing to me is how awesome the weather has been in Texas during this strong Nino (the Christmas blizzard/tornado outbreak otherwise), given how climo generally treats this area during El Ninos. I'm sure there will be a turnaround soon, and I hope there is to build the water supply for the next La Nina drought, but it's still an eye-opener to many here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I really feel for those guys those winter and they deserve some bombs like these this winter. Ski country has been getting killed in the Catskills and Poconos this winter. It sucks that I'll be home when this might be happening and I missed the late January blizzard, but many more people's livelihoods in those areas depend on snow than around NYC. My folks aren't going to like how much I'm going to turn up the heat in the house when I come back Saturday. Near 80 on Friday in Austin and sunny to near 0 Saturday night in NYC. OUCH. Wow 8 to 0 that's nuts. I think you'll be surprised that we still have a decent amount of snow on the island. There is literally none in Manhattan now. This has really been the coastal winter Watch this clobber the coast and miss inland again. It likes to snow where it likes to snow in a given winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 All of ski country has been killed this year.. Englishtown had more snow than Svt as of 2/5 The idea that State College, PA or Scranton/WB, PA could have fewer decent winters than NYC before 2000 would be preposterous, laughable, and now it's almost routine. I'm really starting to think that climatologically something has changed, and it's more than the ENSO, because it's happened in multiple cycles now. Maybe the warmer Gulf Stream and offshore water temps have favored more benchmark tracks? Remember, both of those places have long term snow averages of 150-200% that of NYC, more than Boston even. They've deserved big snow events for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The idea that State College, PA or Scranton/WB, PA could have fewer decent winters than NYC before 2000 would be preposterous, laughable, and now it's almost routine. I'm really starting to think that climatologically something has changed, and it's more than the ENSO, because it's happened in multiple cycles now. Maybe the warmer Gulf Stream and offshore water temps have favored more benchmark tracks? Remember, both of those places have long term snow averages of 150-200% that of NYC, more than Boston even. They've deserved big snow events for a long time. I posted in the SNE thread today how tracks like 1/22/87 the classic OXB to BTV track has basically become extinct, it either goes up the Gulf Stream or into Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The idea that State College, PA or Scranton/WB, PA could have fewer decent winters than NYC before 2000 would be preposterous, laughable, and now it's almost routine. I'm really starting to think that climatologically something has changed, and it's more than the ENSO, because it's happened in multiple cycles now. Maybe the warmer Gulf Stream and offshore water temps have favored more benchmark tracks? Remember, both of those places have long term snow averages of 150-200% that of NYC, more than Boston even. They've deserved big snow events for a long time. We've been debating this in the snow starved NW burb thread recently. Definitely seems to be something going on. Warmer gulf stream water is one of our leading theories as well. Though I posed the question to the NWS in Albany and they said it was just bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 100% depends on track, which depends on when the low closes The GFS track is south and east of us and its still not good enough for all frozen which tells you the GFS is BS IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 We've been debating this in the snow starved NW burb thread recently. Definitely seems to be something going on. Warmer gulf stream water is one of our leading theories as well. Though I posed the question to the NWS in Albany and they said it was just bad luck. I haven't been alive long enough to really posit that, but something really seemed to switch around 2002-2003 or so, and it really hasn't looked back since. A March 1993 type track that nailed the Appalachians really wasn't that rare a few decades ago, it happened in March 1994, again November 1995, and in the 97-98 Nino. Now it never happens. I think something has changed to favor the coast and I-95 significantly more these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 And obviously this isn't about me at this point, getting rained on while the Poconos get dumped on with snow wouldn't make me happy in the week I'm home from Texas with the one shot I have to see snow this winter, but it's definitely "fair". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 State college had 110" in 93-94. I don't know if NYC could ever see that much unless we had 3 KUs in one winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 State college had 110" in 93-94. I don't know if NYC could ever see that much unless we had 3 KUs in one winter Had a couple of storms realigned themselves by 50-75 miles last winter, NYC would have come close. Same with 09-10. If anyone's really taken this last 10-15 years jackpot, it's been Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 How do we go from the coldest air mass in a decade this weekend to a storm that tracks well SE of NYC in Tue and will be rain? Honestly when is last time we heard "significantly higher amounts N&W of the city", those words were a given growing up SE Passaic County in the 70s, 80s and early 90s. Not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 How do we go from the coldest air mass in a decade this weekend to a storm that tracks well SE of NYC in Tue and will be rain? Honestly when is last time we heard "significantly higher amounts N&W of the city", those words were a given growing up SE Passaic County in the 70s, 80s and early 90s. Not anymore. The Atlantic ridge has consistently been undermodeled this winter-it kept the late Jan blizzard way south until within 48 hours, and the last anafrontal system. It stands to reason this would do the same-especially when at this stage the mix line is already NW of I-95. My odds are well into the Appalachians for good snow amounts, maybe the I-81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 How do we go from the coldest air mass in a decade this weekend to a storm that tracks well SE of NYC in Tue and will be rain? Honestly when is last time we heard "significantly higher amounts N&W of the city", those words were a given growing up SE Passaic County in the 70s, 80s and early 90s. Not anymore.Lot of unknowns in track and timing still, but it will not shock me one bit if us in the interior miss out again either through a shaft job or rain. This one has a different feel to it, however.... Just my gut feeling. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The idea that State College, PA or Scranton/WB, PA could have fewer decent winters than NYC before 2000 would be preposterous, laughable, and now it's almost routine. I'm really starting to think that climatologically something has changed, and it's more than the ENSO, because it's happened in multiple cycles now. Maybe the warmer Gulf Stream and offshore water temps have favored more benchmark tracks? Remember, both of those places have long term snow averages of 150-200% that of NYC, more than Boston even. They've deserved big snow events for a long time. I think psuhoffman offered up that theory last winter. It's just gotten too routine to write it off as "bad luck". Every winter's "big one" the last few years has crushed the metro areas while leaving interior areas with little or nothing. Now in what was supposed to be an interior winter, the metros are near or above average while interior areas are having historically bad winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think psuhoffman offered up that theory last winter. It's just gotten too routine to write it off as "bad luck". Every winter's "big one" the last few years has crushed the metro areas while leaving interior areas with little or nothing. Now in what was supposed to be an interior winter, the metros are near or above average while interior areas are having historically bad winters. Yeah. I'm pulling for you guys-I have been for a long time. Hopefully there's some way we both can benefit when I'm home next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Just based on the setup, I have a tough time seeing a significant snow event for coastal areas. Even if it's snow to rain, such storms are notorious for changing over faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Is it possible we're seeing some actual climate shift, resulting in things like the I-95 cities all seeing 5-7 of their top 10 snowfalls over the past 20 years vs. 125+ years of records (saw an article on this last week, but don't recall where)? Sure it's possible, but it's also possible we're seeing the equivalent of flipping heads 4-5 times in a row - unexpected, sure, but not indicative of any actual change in probability, just a short term statistical blip that looks "relevant" since our record is very short from a statistical perspective. Ask me in 1000 years, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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