codfishsnowman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 i am the last person to bow to the gfs but let us give it a little credit as far as Monday goes...it had the right idea that there was not going to be a big event...yeah perhaps theres some snow in southern sections and perhaps it was too far offshore when a handful of other runs showed good solutions but overall it had the right idea maybe that is how this model should be used...for a broad overview and not specifics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 What's interesting is that the GFS had this as a cutter way back last Friday, jumped around, and now looks similar to then. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The gfs came north though. So, you can't always judge a model based on what happened in your backyard either. Also, we have yet to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I think gynx has a theory going on the gfs that pertains to that. Good find.I have a theory too, it's called blind squirrel. OP runs have only slightly more skill than climo at 312 hours.However, and maybe this is his theory, that at the lower resolution they don't blow up spurious little shortwaves and they tend to stick to the longwave maxes more. That often works out at verification, not always. That's what Rayno was doing, it's not difficult to see which energy was always dominant in this setup...the one associated with the longwave trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Also, we have yet to verify. Scooter promising snow again. Just stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I would say less then average for KTAN Snowfall wise we are running near normal for the season. 30". Temps have been warm, no doubt. You won't see me complaint about this winter. We left 2011/12 in the dust a long time ago. That season had 12" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I remember about 10 15 years ago they had a year that was really bad alot of trails were close in southern quebec I have been ok with the winter in Nashua That Being said, the winter is an utter joke for NNE. It's sad. I'm going to Stowe sat nite/ Sun nite (skiing Sunday) . Gf wanted to do some husky led ride around and about , sorry not enough snow. But uncle's brother in law is a snow riding maniac and conditions are a joke in many parts of FAR NNE. Bottom 5% of all winters there , prob worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Snowfall wise we are running near normal for the season. 30". Temps have been warm, no doubt. You won't see me complaint about this winter. We left 2011/12 in the dust a long time ago. That season had 12" here.Even those with only moderately crappy totals in 11/12 got them from the octobomb. It was an awesome spectacle of nature, but it was fall, not winter...ruined Halloween and that wasn't cool. So that real winter was absolutely terrible, first winter in my current house and I remember exactly one plowable snowfall. There were some others that might have been a few inches but ended as rain and torch and I didn't have to bother clearing the driveway as it was a pile of watery slush by the time the rain stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The mods could just merge the Model thread with the Debra thread. It's all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Even those with only moderately crappy totals in 11/12 got them from the octobomb. It was an awesome spectacle of nature, but it was fall, not winter...ruined Halloween and that wasn't cool. So that real winter was absolutely terrible, first winter in my current house and I remember exactly one plowable snowfall. There were some others that might have been a few inches but ended as rain and torch and I didn't have to bother clearing the driveway as it was a pile of watery slush by the time the rain stopped. Right. Met Winter that year was 100% hopeless in SNE. There was very little to ever look forward to. We had the constant black hole in AK that killed any and all chances. I know NNE has it worse, but in SNE..we have had a decent Pacific lately that allowed for areas..especially S and SE areas to have an ok winter as far as snow goes. We had a couple of nice trends with storms. Unlike 11-12 that was an upslope CJ for VT, any event that looked halfway decent always failed. The only one that did not was that Jan s coast deformation band that dropped 8-12" from BDR to Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The GFS is probably too far west, St. Louis is like the Jacksonvilles and Savannahs of the world to hurricanes when it comes to big time snow events, it always is to their north or south. I guess it doesn't matter though because it's rain this way whether it goes over us or over Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Even those with only moderately crappy totals in 11/12 got them from the octobomb. It was an awesome spectacle of nature, but it was fall, not winter...ruined Halloween and that wasn't cool. So that real winter was absolutely terrible, first winter in my current house and I remember exactly one plowable snowfall. There were some others that might have been a few inches but ended as rain and torch and I didn't have to bother clearing the driveway as it was a pile of watery slush by the time the rain stopped. it was the opposite here. It was all rain ending as a few hours of snow that did not accumulate much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Snowfall wise we are running near normal for the season. 30". Temps have been warm, no doubt. You won't see me complaint about this winter. We left 2011/12 in the dust a long time ago. That season had 12" here. I'm hoping for 12 here. Might have reached it Monday night....I wasn't around to see what we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Seems like the majority in here have. It's unreal. Some good laughs this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Unlike 11-12 that was an upslope CJ for VT, any event that looked halfway decent always failed. The only one that did not was that Jan s coast deformation band that dropped 8-12" from BDR to Cape Cod. The bold is this year for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 New thread opened. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47919-model-mezzanine-3rd-times-a-charm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Even those with only moderately crappy totals in 11/12 got them from the octobomb. It was an awesome spectacle of nature, but it was fall, not winter...ruined Halloween and that wasn't cool. So that real winter was absolutely terrible, first winter in my current house and I remember exactly one plowable snowfall. There were some others that might have been a few inches but ended as rain and torch and I didn't have to bother clearing the driveway as it was a pile of watery slush by the time the rain stopped. agree 100 pct...i personally hated the october storm...no power or cable for 9 days...not safe to walk around outside during the thick of it and the stupid leaves on all the trees didn't allow one to take in the wonder of a 12 plus inch snowstorm... that was fall and the rest of the winter was right on par with 97-98 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 At least my Leap Day threat is still on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 WW is right, when was the last time we had a winter that snowmobiling in NNE basically wasn't possible? I bought one last year at the end of the season and have only been able to take a few laps around my yard!!! Old timers around here say this is the worst it has ever been by a long shot. No snow to 2500ft for just about the entire winter. It's not that unusual not to be able to ride the sleds for a month or two, but for the entire winter even in the high terrain has not happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Right. Met Winter that year was 100% hopeless in SNE. There was very little to ever look forward to. We had the constant black hole in AK that killed any and all chances. I know NNE has it worse, but in SNE..we have had a decent Pacific lately that allowed for areas..especially S and SE areas to have an ok winter as far as snow goes. We had a couple of nice trends with storms. Unlike 11-12 that was an upslope CJ for VT, any event that looked halfway decent always failed. The only one that did not was that Jan s coast deformation band that dropped 8-12" from BDR to Cape Cod. I still did better in 2011-2012 even without the Octobomb. 22-24" thereafter vs 21" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Well when it's 8 days out and it looks snowy....step 1 in getting Juked. You guys still fall for that. Gulf low and no blocking should be yellow flag number 1. Today should give us more clarity as the risk of ice is there in the interior anyways. I'd wait before holding hands with Eyewall as you jump off into an abyss. I didn't fall for $hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Right. Met Winter that year was 100% hopeless in SNE. There was very little to ever look forward to. We had the constant black hole in AK that killed any and all chances. I know NNE has it worse, but in SNE..we have had a decent Pacific lately that allowed for areas..especially S and SE areas to have an ok winter as far as snow goes. We had a couple of nice trends with storms. Unlike 11-12 that was an upslope CJ for VT, any event that looked halfway decent always failed. The only one that did not was that Jan s coast deformation band that dropped 8-12" from BDR to Cape Cod. This is very comparable to 2012 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The problem with comparing this season to 2011-12 is that one of them is a complete season and the other is February 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The problem with comparing this season to 2011-12 is that one of them is a complete season and the other is February 20th. That is tacit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That is tacit. That wasn't just at you, Hubbdave is declaring this season worse than 2011-12 because he got 23" in 11-12 and he has 21" this season. That's a little ridiculous, given that March 2012 isn't walking through the door on February 21st, or March 1st, 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That wasn't just at you, Hubbdave is declaring this season worse than 2011-12 because he got 23" in 11-12 and he has 21" this season. That's a little ridiculous, given that March 2012 isn't walking through the door on February 21st, or March 1st, 2016. March has potential, but I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 March has potential, but I'll leave it at that. Right, there are no guarantees. But at his/your latitude, 2" is not hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This is very comparable to 2012 here.If you and I and ORH end up under 35".. I don't think any of us would call that an ok winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 If you and I and ORH end up under 35".. I don't think any of us would call that an ok winter Nobody would...but it will take a really awful finish to finish under 35" in ORH considering they are at 31.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 December through March that year was abysmal. That black Hole gave no hope. It was easy to see. This time around we don't have that so we have the potential to try and grab some events. We did that over the last month. I know we have had just awful luck, but the 2011-2012 pattern gave zero hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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