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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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Agree. This winter has sucked even though I am close to 40 and I went below 0. Give me multiple snowstorms instead of 1 big one.

We'll see what happens, but I have a 2010/2012 vibe.....like, "pack it up, go home because it will do everything and anything but snow" vibe.

Anecdotal and crap logic, and I hope I'm wrong, but have that feeling.

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We'll see what happens, but I have a 2010/2012 vibe.....like, "pack it up, go home because it will do everything and anything but snow" vibe.

Anecdotal and crap logic, and I hope I'm wrong, but have that feeling.

Watch March produce since the AO is falling and MJO going into 8. March 1958?

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Now that models are honing in on the second stronger wave we really should all know how this will play out...like 40/70 said maybe early March

 

Perhaps this thing will wind up far enough east to save upstate ny and western and central areas of nne but even up there it doesn't look that great but down here I think we can safely say we are toast.

 

The biggest red flag to me all along has been the lack on ensemble members off the coast compared to inland solutions which of course is a direct result of no blocking.

 

I think DIT was correct with loosing Monday stronger def hurts us with the mid week set up.

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We'll see what happens, but I have a 2010/2012 vibe.....like, "pack it up, go home because it will do everything and anything but snow" vibe.

Anecdotal and crap logic, and I hope I'm wrong, but have that feeling.

It is crap logic, but sometimes in the weather, crap logic works better than scientific logic it seems, and this is one of them. I have to agree, this winter just does not want to snow in New England.

And especially NNE..my god what a disaster. I was hoping to do some snowmobiling in Northern Maine, and they got completely wiped out with this last cutter on Tuesday/Wednesday. This winter BLOWS everywhere in New England. What looked like a wintry week next week has again trended into nothing more than a rain storm. I too hope it just ends soon. Very disappointing all around.

This will most likely be the first year ever, in 26 years (since I've been old enough to go away sledding) that I won't be able to snowmobile due to no areas not having any snow!! Even in the worst years northern areas have managed to have enough snow to make it rideable at least in January and February. It was pretty good in northern Maine up until Wednesday last week, and then the small amount of snow just got completely obliterated by heavy rain and wind, and 50 degree temps!!! A disaster!!

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And Monday's system..which would have been snow for us, that misses also!! Lol, can't make this sh*t up!

And like you said Ray, as soon as baseball season starts, the -NAO and -AO will kick into full gear, and the cold miserable 39-43 degree rain storms will kick in. I think we can just about guarantee that happening.

Again crap logic and voodoo, but I bet that happens. What an abortion of a winter. I have more snow than 2011-2012, but for some reason this year seems worse at this point. Perhaps it's because at least that year I was able to get away sledding twice, and the riding was great. This year it's virtually shut down!!

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Well when it's 8 days out and it looks snowy....step 1 in getting Juked. You guys still fall for that. Gulf low and no blocking should be yellow flag number 1. Today should give us more clarity as the risk of ice is there in the interior anyways. I'd wait before holding hands with Eyewall as you jump off into an abyss.

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And Monday's system..which would have been snow for us, that misses also!! Lol, can't make this sh*t up!

And like you said Ray, as soon as baseball season starts, the -NAO and -AO will kick into full gear, and the cold miserable 39-43 degree rain storms will kick in. I think we can just about guarantee that happening.

Again crap logic and voodoo, but I bet that happens. What an abortion of a winter. I have more snow than 2011-2012, but for some reason this year seems worse at this point. Perhaps it's because at least that year I was able to get away sledding twice, and the riding was great. This year it's virtually shut down!!

Monday was always low confidence. Now you are reaching to find any excuse to call it a crap winter.
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Monday was always low confidence. Now you are reaching to find any excuse to call it a crap winter.

Gimme a break SCOTT!! It has been a crap winter... Here and everywhere in NEW ENGLAND!! If you can't see that, you need to take off the beer goggles!! And that's not making excuses, that's a fact. I think most would disagree with you on that one.

FACT: When snowmobilers can't go anywhere in New England to ride their sleds, the winter SUCKS, and BIG TIME. I have never in 26 years, have had a problem finding some place to ride my sled in the 6 state region. This year, at this point( the peak of the winter season) there is no where to do any snowmobiling in New England!! So stuff that in your pipe and smoke it!!

My Melt is complete. Feels good to get that out.

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Gimme a break SCOTT!! It has been a crap winter... Here and everywhere in NEW ENGLAND!! If you can't see that, you need to take off the beer goggles!! And that's not making excuses, that's a fact. I think most would disagree with you on that one.

FACT: When snowmobilers can't go anywhere in New England to ride their sleds, the winter SUCKS, and BIG TIME. I have never in 26 years, have had a problem finding some place to ride my sled in the 6 state region. This year, at this point( the peak of the winter season) there is no where to do any snowmobiling in New England!! So stuff that in your pipe and smoke it!!

My Melt is complete. Feels good to get that out.

I'm glad your melt is complete. However, you missed my point about Monday. That's your fault you got caught up in it a week out. That was a narrow system that looked good on one or two runs from one or two models. There was a lot of spread on that and it did not scream high confidence. I'm well aware of how bad winter is for many areas. It's definitely not as bad as some recent stinkers for me.

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Monday was always low confidence. Now you are reaching to find any excuse to call it a crap winter.

 

Is it not a crap winter? As for the storm, I have been consistent in saying it will cut. It looks like that scenario is very much on the table.

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I'm glad your melt is complete. However, you missed my point about Monday. That's your fault you got caught up in it a week out. That was a narrow system that looked good on one or two runs from one or two models. There was a lot of spread on that and it did not scream high confidence. I'm well aware of how bad winter is for many areas. It's definitely not as bad as some recent stinkers for me.

I apologize for missing your point. With regard to your point, in all honesty, I did not get wrapped up in any system( especially any next week), I was aware of all the caveats that come along with the lead times, and lack of any type of blocking as well.

I am just amazed at the lack of any type of snow in all of NEW ENGLAND, and it just keeps happening storm after storm. Either they miss OTS, it they cut. Yes, this season for me so far is better than 11-12 as far as snowfall here at home. But that's little consolation when speaking of the whole area of New England together. It's a bad one as a Whole. May go down as the worst ever if one takes into consideration the entire area, and not just SNE.

And I apologize, not taking it out on anybody at all, just very disappointing for us avid winter sports enthusiasts.

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