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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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Mundane is a subjective word.

 

At any rate, lets stick to model analysis here and not start debating whether we think this event is "worth" following or whether it will satisfy our own definitions of a good event. We have like 2 or 3 other threads that can be debated in.

Under warning criteria.

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40/70:  You're getting distracted by your disappointment and sense of failure.  There is plenty of time for evolution within the models.  Many storm tracks have not been resolving this winter until the 48 hr timeframe thanks to our lack of blocking up north.  I find that many on this board are now assuming things will break ****ty, but the truth is that we've had some late breaks.  I would just recommend that you remember that your snow forecast had many things right about it... had it not been for that ****-ass dome of high pressure for the MA blizzard, we would all be closer to verification.  This isn't a dead ratter yet... I think we have another 3 weeks of snow events although without a doubt... we will taint on some of them and those with pack fetishes are going to have to call this season a loss.

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Under warning criteria.

 

Not true, because, we have had two high impact advisory events this season despite swimming in a sea of suck.

 

The January sleet fest and Monday night's cutter both had high impact on day to day activities for a chunk of people.

 

Looks like mid-week could be another incarnation of this season's futility while still being a bit more than mundane.

Seems like a good thump to ice to wet for the interior.

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40/70:  You're getting distracted by your disappointment and sense of failure.  There is plenty of time for evolution within the models.  Many storm tracks have not been resolving this winter until the 48 hr timeframe thanks to our lack of blocking up north.  I find that many on this board are now assuming things will break ****ty, but the truth is that we've had some late breaks.  I would just recommend that you remember that your snow forecast had many things right about it... had it not been for that ****-ass dome of high pressure for the MA blizzard, we would all be closer to verification.  This isn't a dead ratter yet... I think we have another 3 weeks of snow events although without a doubt... we will taint on some of them and those with pack fetishes are going to have to call this season a loss.

Yea, I'm jaded and disappointed.

No doubt.....gonna take a breather.

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18Z GFS only with a front end burst into SNE of 3 to 4, major snow axis SW Illinois over CHICAGO to Michigan

Sounds like some of the western members of euro ensembles.

Totally within the realm of possibilities. We are actually hoping on bad phasing for this event. Bad phasing has hurt us in some other events (most notably feb 8th) so this time it would help us.

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Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event?

Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east.

Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about.

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Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event?

Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east.

Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about.

It's odd EPS mean is .5 snow for Chi but Para drops a foot.
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Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event?

Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east.

Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about.

that's a JC-CT JMA solution
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Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event?

Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east.

Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about.

Great point.

Touche.

Wait and see...but we could still have a strung out meager solution, no?

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Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event?

Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east.

Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about.

The big Ottawa and Rochester event this week too screwed up that following clipper from being a monster redeveloper. That thing was on roids crossing KY and VA, would have had Manitoba mauler potential.

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