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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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If wave 1 can get through another model cycle or two, then we'll be inside of 100 hours for that part of the storm. That's a crucial part of the storm if we're looking for a snowier solution because 1. It gets precip into a much fresher airmass and 2. It keeps the baroclinic zone further east so that wave 2 doesn't go crazy phased cutter on us....even if it tries to track over SNE, it's a lot different than a phased cutter over BUF.

 

The bridge jumpers from BTV would agree with you if they hadn't already jumped off a bridge.

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Not saying it's right but it would be great if the 50/50 developed this way, both because of the space it would imply the first wave has and the implications for the second.

74de66eae7938067ed6450e7f9b41107.jpg

let's hope your boy is right. When the Euro came out I thought for sure the Baroclinic/thermal Zone would be farther out and the second storm woukd evolve like the JMA ended up doing. This is the total run QPF and I would venture to say the majority is frozen. Let's hope your boy is on to something

jma_precip_conus_33.png

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writing's on the wall - this should end up west. 

 

i discussed this at length all day about the wave lengths looking too suspiciously long for an ec event...  ridging situated too far west in recent runs. 

 

that's kind of the rub-schit frosting on the dogcrap cake of winter this has been, to have a whopper ending +PNA idiosyncratically be west basing the +PNAP expression like that.   

 

ha - pretty strong argument for the cosmic dildo 

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writing's on the wall - this should end up west. 

 

i discussed this at length all day about the wave lengths looking too suspiciously long for an ec event...  ridging situated too far west in recent runs. 

 

that's kind of the rub-schit frosting on the dogcrap cake of winter this has been, to have a whopper ending +PNA idiosyncratically be west basing the +PNAP expression like that.   

 

ha - pretty strong argument for the cosmic dildo 

The roller coaster is illusory in nature imo.

Pretty obvious where this will end up.

 Hopefully March produces something of note, otherwise it will be a miserable couple of months, as I'm sure the NAO will arrive in sync with the delivery of the first pitch.

"Now to deliver the ceremonial first pitch, Greenland Block"...

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HA, it literally is a Chicago snowstorm. Wow talk about jumping around.

Gets 850mb to +10C up here.

 

it may be more than merely jumping around ...in terms of total wave length arguments, the ec idea was never very good.  

 

anomalies happen though - we'll see. 

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The roller coaster is illusory in nature imo.

Pretty obvious where this will end up.

Hopefully March produces something of note, otherwise it will be a miserable couple of months, as I'm sure the NAO will arrive in sync with the delivery of the first pitch.

"Now to deliver the ceremonial first pitch, Greenland Block"...

Don't forget a few snow outs in Denver and Cleveland to start the season

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The roller coaster is illusory in nature imo.

Pretty obvious where this will end up.

Hopefully March produces something of note, otherwise it will be a miserable couple of months, as I'm sure the NAO will arrive in sync with the delivery of the first pitch.

"Now to deliver the ceremonial first pitch, Greenland Block"...

Is it that obvious where this will end up? Will and Scott must not see the future as easily as you.

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Dood, can't have knee jerk reactions based off this pos model. The writing is not on the wall with this one yet, is all I'm saying.

I wasn't being sarcastic, you're right.

 

But I feel this is going to end up a mundane event in all seriousness.

Anyway, looking throughout the seasonal tallies, I think the best case scenario for March is about 25" more, barring a freak bowling ball, which is always possible.

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I wasn't being sarcastic, you're right.

But I feel this is going to end up a mundane event in all seriousness.

Anyway, looking throughout the seasonal tallies, I think the best case scenario for March is about 25" more, barring a freak bowling ball, which is always possible.

This could certainly end up a waste, I agree. Not denying that with my snow goggles on. But I think the swings and uncertainty of better guidance like ec and eps leads me to think this is far from narrowing the goal posts.

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This could certainly end up a waste, I agree. Not denying that with my snow goggles on. But I think the swings and uncertainty of better guidance like ec and eps leads me to think this is far from narrowing the goal posts.

EURO is the best model, but you need that inside day 4 to feel great.

Say what you want about the UK, as it is wild, but it seems to have been pretty consistent of late.

Maybe I'm wrong....haven't paid much ATTN this week.

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Mundane is a subjective word.

 

At any rate, lets stick to model analysis here and not start debating whether we think this event is "worth" following or whether it will satisfy our own definitions of a good event. We have like 2 or 3 other threads that can be debated in.

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