ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The warmer CONUS the Euro shows around D9-10 seems to be an outlier anyway amongst ensembles and other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 The warmer CONUS the Euro shows around D9-10 seems to be an outlier anyway amongst ensembles and other guidance. It certainly doesn't correlate too well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 it's probably a topic for the feb/mar thread but yeah, i distinctly remember that epic warmth that spring. one day in april, it was 95 f ...not too deep into the month, either. i was living in Waltham, Ma at the time, just inside 128 there west of bean-town. i remember firing up the 2nd set of tennis with the dudes after work on one of the many warm days that weird spring. suddenly, the wind turned E and i figured in mind that things were going to cool off fast. i mean, april ocean temps and east seabreeze in april, usually whiplashes... but didn't! it went from 95 to 75... 75 of course still way above normal. buuuut, that year/scenario is the huge exception to the rule. i've seen 92 in early May go to 48 inside of 2 hours before. Probably thinking of 2002, when BDL had a heat wave April 16-18, topping at 95. Of course, the (non)winter of 01-02 didn't have far to go to get warm. April 2003 had one day (16th) with mid-upper 80s in SNE, but didn't get back up there until late June, and most SNE points had 2 small snowstorms earlier that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Probably thinking of 2002, when BDL had a heat wave April 16-18, topping at 95. Of course, the (non)winter of 01-02 didn't have far to go to get warm. April 2003 had one day (16th) with mid-upper 80s in SNE, but didn't get back up there until late June, and most SNE points had 2 small snowstorms earlier that month. yeah,...i was just about the type that. it was 2002, word - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro ensembles support the 2 wave idea of the OP for next week...the mean is actually pretty similar to the OP run...though round 2 is probably a bit east of the OP. But there's clearly a lot of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro ensembles support the 2 wave idea of the OP for next week...the mean is actually pretty similar to the OP run...though round 2 is probably a bit east of the OP. But there's clearly a lot of spread. So east of 00z mean over NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So east of 00z mean over NYC? the 12z mean is over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So east of 00z mean over NYC? No almost exactly the same...but 12z plays the front runner wave harder than the 00z ensembles did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Less of a spread. Centered over NYC/eastern LI We rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Less of a spread. Centered over NYC/eastern LI We rain Probably plenty of snow and freezing rain with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 No almost exactly the same...but 12z plays the front runner wave harder than the 00z ensembles did. The only thing that can deliver our ice storm then is that high that the op has. Hopefully the ensembles start to pick up on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Probably plenty of snow and freezing rain with that setup.I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm confused. Seems like we have an outbreak of that.............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm confused. If you go back and reread the description of the OP run, the ensembles are very similar. A bunch of snow on the front end changing to ice over the interior...perhaps some rain at the end. Of course, there's plenty of spread in the ensembles too where some of the solutions give your big rainstorm. Others give mostly snow. One thing is for sure, it's gonna change between now and next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ok. Thanks Will. I was just looking at the ens spread on Twitter and didn't see how that gave snow with the mean where it was. But after going back that makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 At least eps mean is se of 0z but still over nyc. But looking back at previous runs, it has jumped around alot. So confidence is pretty low at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Every single snow-loving member of this subforum would take the JMA in a heartbeat no questions asked. Holy heck what a weenie run. Pretty much what the GGEM ensembles would look like in an OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Every single snow-loving member of this subforum would take the JMA in a heartbeat no questions asked. Holy heck what a weenie run. Pretty much what the GGEM ensembles would look like in an OP run. Haha...JMA double fisting.... um, beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Maybe I'm misinterpreting (which isn't shocking) but a lot of the guidance seems to indicate a decent thump for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Haha...JMA double fisting.... um, beer. Without seeing qpf, I'm assuming the Euro is actually a similar synoptic evolution except the second low is faster and 100 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Without seeing qpf, I'm assuming the Euro is actually a similar synoptic evolution except the second low is faster and 100 miles further west. Yea, I just checked. I wonder if the slower solution of the JMA is valid though. You would think a slower 2nd round would mean more time for a phase and thus more inland runner. But maybe I'm wrong I'm me thought process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Still 6 days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Still 6 days to go Comes in Tuesday nigt/Wed am 4.5-5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yea, I just checked. I wonder if the slower solution of the JMA is valid though. You would think a slower 2nd round would mean more time for a phase and thus more inland runner. But maybe I'm wrong I'm me thought process. What do you mean by valid? It is a cleaner phase than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Comes in Tuesday nigt/Wed am 4.5-5 days Agree, and a critical distinction when it pertains to model skill. As big, or bigger, jump tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 What do you mean by valid? It is a cleaner phase than the Euro Right. So im asking in way, wouldn't a cleaner phase pull it inland instead of bm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Without seeing qpf, I'm assuming the Euro is actually a similar synoptic evolution except the second low is faster and 100 miles further west. Yeah it looks fairly similar...its a decent amount wetter than the Euro for wave 1, and as you mentioned, it tracks wave 2 further east than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Right. So im asking in way, wouldn't a cleaner phase pull it inland instead of bm track? No. Because of the separation between the first and second wave, and the cleaner phase with the second wave and the third wave from the north, the first wave is able to deepen enough past our latitude to become a 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 If wave 1 can get through another model cycle or two, then we'll be inside of 100 hours for that part of the storm. That's a crucial part of the storm if we're looking for a snowier solution because 1. It gets precip into a much fresher airmass and 2. It keeps the baroclinic zone further east so that wave 2 doesn't go crazy phased cutter on us....even if it tries to track over SNE, it's a lot different than a phased cutter over BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not saying it's right but it would be great if the 50/50 developed this way, both because of the space it would imply the first wave has and the implications for the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.