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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah the banana high has been gone for a few runs now...the Quebec/Nova Scotia high this run was quite stubborn though, so we saw a ton of CAD.

 

That lead shortwave that gets out ahead and runs into that high before the main trough swings through. If that is consolidated with the main trough then you get the ukie.

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Yeah the banana high has been gone for a few runs now...the Quebec/Nova Scotia high this run was quite stubborn though, so we saw a ton of CAD.

 

Man some of those thermal profiles are fun for the second wave... like RUT in VT with +7C at H85 and -4C at 925. 

 

Similar in SNE... ORH at like +8C H85 but 0C at 925.

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Not at the surface it didn't, The ukie has one low well inland that phases with a northern stream vort, The euro does this with the second wave but further east

 

The ukmet just doesn't have that lead energy, or if it does it quickly consolidates or dampens it out. That's a pretty small change at 96 hours out. Of course, more separation between the lead wave and main trough would improve the first wave.

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That lead shortwave that gets out ahead and runs into that high before the main trough swings through. If that is consolidated with the main trough then you get the ukie.

 

Ukie is much faster with the southern energy as well. That helps prevent any lead wave from taking off.

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The ukmet just doesn't have that lead energy, or if it does it quickly consolidates or dampens it out. That's a pretty small change at 96 hours out. Of course, more separation between the lead wave and main trough would improve the first wave.

 

Well you cant see it if there is as the ukie runs out in 24 hr panels that far out, I would take what the Ukie has with a grain of salt as its on the extreme west side of guidance

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Well you cant see it if there is as the ukie runs out in 24 hr panels that far out, I would take what the Ukie has with a grain of salt as its on the extreme west side of guidance

 

I'm saying it doesn't create a surface reflection. Like you said, they don't look the same at the surface...even though both are an inland track with the main longwave trough.

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Despite the better +PNA look to the operational Euro ...it's extended still manages to bring spring pretty boldly across the CONUS - interesting

I'm starting to think that that is the most painless route.

Shooting cold season blanks loses its luster pretty quickly as we head into March.

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well ...continuation on thoughts from earlier ... this UKMET run fits snugly into wave space arguments.  That ridge in the west is too far west; the long wave trough amplitude in the east fits quicker, western solutions with that configuration -

 

yet, at the same time, that model has a N-S bias in the flow in that time range so accounting for both leaves one with pretty much limited or no skill using that model.

 

par for the course - 

 

in either event, one way to get the long-wave, wave length to be usually long is by stronger than normal wind velocities - we certainly have scene that more often than not this winter.  but that's not something one should count on... typically, our trough/storm strikes occur with ridge aspect situated between eastern MT and western MN ...right in that longitude.  Presently, most guidance i've seen has the ridge too far west of that rule of thumb, and any model that conserves that by ticking west is unfortunate for those who don't want warm solutions, getting the objective nod.  

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I'm starting to think that that is the most painless route.

Shooting cold season blanks loses its luster pretty quickly as we head into March.

 

Some poster a while ago wrote that march and aprils tend to warm up fast in waning El Ninos; if that's true, well -

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I think 2003 did that.

 

it's probably a topic for the feb/mar thread but yeah, i distinctly remember that epic warmth that spring.  one day in april, it was 95 f ...not too deep into the month, either.  i was living in Waltham, Ma at the time, just inside 128 there west of bean-town. 

 

i remember firing up the 2nd set of tennis with the dudes after work on one of the many warm days that weird spring.  suddenly, the wind turned E and i figured in mind that things were going to cool off fast.  i mean, april ocean temps and east seabreeze in april, usually whiplashes... but didn't!  it went from 95 to 75... 75 of course still way above normal.  

 

buuuut, that year/scenario is the huge exception to the rule.  i've seen 92 in early May go to 48 inside of 2 hours before.

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it's probably a topic for the feb/mar thread but yeah, i distinctly remember that epic warmth that spring.  one day in april, it was 95 f ...not too deep into the month, either.  i was living in Waltham, Ma at the time, just inside 128 there west of bean-town. 

 

i remember firing up the 2nd set of tennis with the dudes after work on one of the many warm days that weird spring.  suddenly, the wind turned E and i figured in mind that things were going to cool off fast.  i mean, april ocean temps and east seabreeze in april, usually whiplashes... but didn't!  it went from 95 to 75... 75 of course still way above normal.  

 

buuuut, that year/scenario is the huge exception to the rule.  i've seen 92 in early May go to 48 inside of 2 hours before.

 

 

2003 was the latest leaf-out I can ever recall. No cherry blossoms until the end of April that spring here. We had a near normal March followed by very cold April/May relative to normal.

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2003 was the latest leaf-out I can ever recall. No cherry blossoms until the end of April that spring here. We had a near normal March followed by very cold April/May relative to normal.

Well, I was in NC that spring and most of the winter, so I wouldn't know....but I do know that it quieted down relatively early snowfall wise.

Early March was good.

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Well, I was in NC that spring and most of the winter, so I wouldn't know....but I do know that it quieted down relatively early snowfall wise.

Early March was good.

 

 

Yeah, at least locally, April turned out snowier than March due to that event on the 7th. There was a storm in early March 2003 which produced sleet/snow here and I think mostly snow in SNE.

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Yeah, at least locally, April turned out snowier than March due to that event on the 7th. There was a storm in early March 2003 which produced sleet/snow here and I think mostly snow in SNE.

Yea, that early March event produced like 1'.

That is the one scooter has always said exhibited the best snow growth that he has ever seen.

I was watching TWC down there.

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