dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It did in a lot of ways. Not at the surface it didn't, The ukie has one low well inland that phases with a northern stream vort, The euro does this with the second wave but further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yeah the banana high has been gone for a few runs now...the Quebec/Nova Scotia high this run was quite stubborn though, so we saw a ton of CAD. That lead shortwave that gets out ahead and runs into that high before the main trough swings through. If that is consolidated with the main trough then you get the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yeah the banana high has been gone for a few runs now...the Quebec/Nova Scotia high this run was quite stubborn though, so we saw a ton of CAD. Man some of those thermal profiles are fun for the second wave... like RUT in VT with +7C at H85 and -4C at 925. Similar in SNE... ORH at like +8C H85 but 0C at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I would definitely hit that solution up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not at the surface it didn't, The ukie has one low well inland that phases with a northern stream vort, The euro does this with the second wave but further east The ukmet just doesn't have that lead energy, or if it does it quickly consolidates or dampens it out. That's a pretty small change at 96 hours out. Of course, more separation between the lead wave and main trough would improve the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Does the 2nd thrust get plain torching rain I-90 south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That lead shortwave that gets out ahead and runs into that high before the main trough swings through. If that is consolidated with the main trough then you get the ukie. Ukie is much faster with the southern energy as well. That helps prevent any lead wave from taking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The ukmet just doesn't have that lead energy, or if it does it quickly consolidates or dampens it out. That's a pretty small change at 96 hours out. Of course, more separation between the lead wave and main trough would improve the first wave. Well you cant see it if there is as the ukie runs out in 24 hr panels that far out, I would take what the Ukie has with a grain of salt as its on the extreme west side of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Does the 2nd thrust get plain torching rain I-90 south? I wouldn't call it torching. But probably like a 34 rain. Might mix to like 40-42 when FROPA happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Still a lot of time left in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This one is all over the place and nothing is getting resolved over the next few days, Models have struggled all winter with these southern stream systems, This ones no different Hard to be confident when 06z gfs runs LP over PIT and 12z has it at CHH. What's 500 miles among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Hard to be confident when 06z gfs runs LP over PIT and 12z has it at CHH. What's 500 miles among friends? Yeah, And that's why you don't buy into anything at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Still a lot of time left in the period Yeah part 1 is hitting at 120h and part 2 is 144+...so it's really not that important what these verbatim solutions show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well you cant see it if there is as the ukie runs out in 24 hr panels that far out, I would take what the Ukie has with a grain of salt as its on the extreme west side of guidance I'm saying it doesn't create a surface reflection. Like you said, they don't look the same at the surface...even though both are an inland track with the main longwave trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yeah, And that's why you don't buy into the GFS at any pointFYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Despite the better +PNA look to the operational Euro ...it's extended still manages to bring spring pretty boldly across the CONUS - interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Despite the better +PNA look to the operational Euro ...it's extended still manages to bring spring pretty boldly across the CONUS - interesting I'm starting to think that that is the most painless route. Shooting cold season blanks loses its luster pretty quickly as we head into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 well ...continuation on thoughts from earlier ... this UKMET run fits snugly into wave space arguments. That ridge in the west is too far west; the long wave trough amplitude in the east fits quicker, western solutions with that configuration - yet, at the same time, that model has a N-S bias in the flow in that time range so accounting for both leaves one with pretty much limited or no skill using that model. par for the course - in either event, one way to get the long-wave, wave length to be usually long is by stronger than normal wind velocities - we certainly have scene that more often than not this winter. but that's not something one should count on... typically, our trough/storm strikes occur with ridge aspect situated between eastern MT and western MN ...right in that longitude. Presently, most guidance i've seen has the ridge too far west of that rule of thumb, and any model that conserves that by ticking west is unfortunate for those who don't want warm solutions, getting the objective nod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm starting to think that that is the most painless route. Shooting cold season blanks loses its luster pretty quickly as we head into March. Some poster a while ago wrote that march and aprils tend to warm up fast in waning El Ninos; if that's true, well - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Some poster a while ago wrote that march and aprils tend to warm up fast in waning El Ninos; if that's true, well - I think 2003 did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think 2003 did that.1997-1998 was a real warm and early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think 2003 did that. it's probably a topic for the feb/mar thread but yeah, i distinctly remember that epic warmth that spring. one day in april, it was 95 f ...not too deep into the month, either. i was living in Waltham, Ma at the time, just inside 128 there west of bean-town. i remember firing up the 2nd set of tennis with the dudes after work on one of the many warm days that weird spring. suddenly, the wind turned E and i figured in mind that things were going to cool off fast. i mean, april ocean temps and east seabreeze in april, usually whiplashes... but didn't! it went from 95 to 75... 75 of course still way above normal. buuuut, that year/scenario is the huge exception to the rule. i've seen 92 in early May go to 48 inside of 2 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's below zero day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The high on day 10 is 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Awesome. How much snow does it show? Hopefully we can amass an inch of QPF through hr 240 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Awesome. How much snow does it show? Hopefully we can amass an inch of QPF through hr 240 again. bizarro place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 it's probably a topic for the feb/mar thread but yeah, i distinctly remember that epic warmth that spring. one day in april, it was 95 f ...not too deep into the month, either. i was living in Waltham, Ma at the time, just inside 128 there west of bean-town. i remember firing up the 2nd set of tennis with the dudes after work on one of the many warm days that weird spring. suddenly, the wind turned E and i figured in mind that things were going to cool off fast. i mean, april ocean temps and east seabreeze in april, usually whiplashes... but didn't! it went from 95 to 75... 75 of course still way above normal. buuuut, that year/scenario is the huge exception to the rule. i've seen 92 in early May go to 48 inside of 2 hours before. 2003 was the latest leaf-out I can ever recall. No cherry blossoms until the end of April that spring here. We had a near normal March followed by very cold April/May relative to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 2003 was the latest leaf-out I can ever recall. No cherry blossoms until the end of April that spring here. We had a near normal March followed by very cold April/May relative to normal. Well, I was in NC that spring and most of the winter, so I wouldn't know....but I do know that it quieted down relatively early snowfall wise. Early March was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well, I was in NC that spring and most of the winter, so I wouldn't know....but I do know that it quieted down relatively early snowfall wise. Early March was good. Yeah, at least locally, April turned out snowier than March due to that event on the 7th. There was a storm in early March 2003 which produced sleet/snow here and I think mostly snow in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yeah, at least locally, April turned out snowier than March due to that event on the 7th. There was a storm in early March 2003 which produced sleet/snow here and I think mostly snow in SNE. Yea, that early March event produced like 1'. That is the one scooter has always said exhibited the best snow growth that he has ever seen. I was watching TWC down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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