WhiteLawns Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So you are saying the only 12z runs out today are the NAM..Just want to clarify your statement here What other runs are out im not trying to be a dick im just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So you are saying the only 12z runs out today are the NAM..Just want to clarify your statement here Depends on what you mean by first wave, I was assuming Monday as no models are "bringing back" the near-term deal. No globals are out, RGEM is but obviously doesn't show that far out. Obviously GFS is running now but wasn't out at the time of your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Depends on what you mean by first wave, I was assuming Monday as no models are "bringing back" the near-term deal. No globals are out, RGEM is but obviously doesn't show that far out. Obviously GFS is running now but wasn't out at the time of your post. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 What other runs are out im not trying to be a dick im just curious. At the time was just the NAM and Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think most can climb back down off the ledge now, 12z GFS is going to be east of the 06z run, Surface low is at 39/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think most can climb back down off the ledge now, 12z GFS is going to be east of the 06z run, Surface low is at 39/73 There was only 1 person on the ledge...I think the rest of us knew the earlier run was nbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think most in NNE can climb back down off the ledge now, 12z GFS is going to be east of the 06z run, Surface low is at 39/73 fyp But yeah, it is separating the waves this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 fyp But yeah, it is separating the waves this time. I don't think anyone except eyewall who plummeted 52,000' 6 weeks back jumped up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs is a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I don't think anyone except eyewall who plummeted 52,000' 6 weeks back jumped up here.I meant it is still too warm for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Considering gfs thermals suck. That's not a bad look for I84 and points nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The uk met may be the crazy uncle but the GFS is the senile Grandpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Considering gfs thermals suck. That's not a bad look for I84 and points nw. The thermals suck at the surface. I don't think the mid levels are as bad, somebody can correct me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I meant it is still too warm for sne It is, But not to Cleveland like 06z was, Looked like there was some front end frozen down your way though and looks like we are going to have the 2 low look again at least on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Haven't seen the 12z GFS oper. yet, ...but it boggles the mind how utterly absent it is with the 84 hour plausibility in SNE compared to some of the other guidance. But, the 00z Euro seemed to pull the plug a good deal on that, too - so it's an interesting sort of competition there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS is going to show a second punch which has been showing up as a possibility on some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Its another solution that's more favorable at least but still plenty of time to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Certainly is lacking in the continuity department. As expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's def a good thump of snow over to ice in the interior on 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Could be wrong but that seems like it's back to the idea of some snow to a lot of ice in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's def a good thump of snow over to ice in the interior on 12z GFS. I get the caveats, but chance for sig ice verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It was a much better look as we didn't get this to phase over tennesee this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not so privy to the last several pages of this thread ( I think at 50, someone should start the part III anyways...) ... but, from my take, the ridge in the west next week, tho seemingly underdone relative to teleconnector arguments, is still too far west. That, plus taking into consideration that the GGEM/Euro tend to be SE too far in this sort of D6/7 time lead, ...i hate to say but it smacks of thinking this could very well end up with us on the warm side of affairs with that amplitude next week. Also, I am noticing a tendency across the pantheon of models to speed up the exit of that polar high that leads the amplification. That (obviously) is an important factor for keeping the lower tropospheric thickness profiles consistent with what the majority wants to see... Yet, all of which is correctable... Not dooming any possibility for winter appeals next week, just that there's work to be done - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Also, I want to add that the last two runs of the GFS suite highlight my dissatisfaction with the GEFS. The 12z OP is essentially outside the spread of the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Certainly is lacking in the continuity department. As expected. Lack of blocking makes GFS confuzzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Hmmm..that follow up, if right, could be good if the northern sw doesn't zip across as much and digs instead. Don't trust gfs has a clue though so fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lack of blocking makes GFS confuzzled Hence the reasons to not get attached to any one run, We are still a few days away to sort this one out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yea, and it's active flow. Anyone writing the season off is simply lacking bandwidth comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yea, and it's active flow. Anyone writing the season off is simply lacking bandwidth comprehension. Well at some point, you start to realize you are playing in the summer league. But not to get off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yeah 12 Z uncancels winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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