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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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So you are saying the only 12z runs out today are the NAM..Just want to clarify your statement here

 

Depends on what you mean by first wave, I was assuming Monday as no models are "bringing back" the near-term deal. No globals are out, RGEM is but obviously doesn't show that far out.

 

Obviously GFS is running now but wasn't out at the time of your post.

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Haven't seen the 12z GFS oper. yet, ...but it boggles the mind how utterly absent it is with the 84 hour plausibility in SNE compared to some of the other guidance.   

 

But, the 00z Euro seemed to pull the plug a good deal on that, too - so it's an interesting sort of competition there.  

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Not so privy to the last several pages of this thread ( I think at 50, someone should start the part III anyways...) ...

 

but, from my take, the ridge in the west next week, tho seemingly underdone relative to teleconnector arguments, is still too far west.  That, plus taking into consideration that the GGEM/Euro tend to be SE too far in this sort of D6/7 time lead, ...i hate to say but it smacks of thinking this could very well end up with us on the warm side of affairs with that amplitude next week. 

 

Also, I am noticing a tendency across the pantheon of models to speed up the exit of that polar high that leads the amplification.  That (obviously) is an important factor for keeping the lower tropospheric thickness profiles consistent with what the majority wants to see... 

 

Yet, all of which is correctable... Not dooming any possibility for winter appeals next week, just that there's work to be done - 

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