Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think you need to hold tight. What if the euro ensemble is right? That's a lot of wintry precip for the interior. Hold off on saying all rain to Stowe. I think you need to hold tight. What if the euro ensemble is right? That's a lot of wintry precip for the interior. Hold off on saying all rain to Stowe. The euro ens mean over NYC is a bad place for 90% of New England. Unless I'm totally mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The euro ens mean over NYC is a bad place for 90% of New England. Unless I'm totally mistaken More like SNE. Probably an ice scenario further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The euro ens mean over NYC is a bad place for 90% of New England. Unless I'm totally mistakenWell that's why I said a lot of wintry precip for interior. I didn't say all precip. It also depends where in the interior....details that cannot be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Need that western ridge further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well that's why I said a lot of wintry precip for interior. I didn't say all precip. It also depends where in the interior....details that cannot be determined. There's also massive spread. It could easily be a system where it's like 7" of snow to hours of ice at ORH and the storm tracks almost over NYC. This could go through CLE or still go over the BM. Hard to convey that message when te OP runs were mostly west but we said the same thing yesterday when most OP runs were strung out and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There's also massive spread. It could easily be a system where it's like 7" of snow to hours of ice at ORH and the storm tracks almost over NYC. This could go through CLE or still go over the BM. Hard to convey that message when te OP runs were mostly west but we said the same thing yesterday when most OP runs were strung out and east. Yeah spaghetti plots have a ton of spread. It will be interesting to see how the 12z guidance goes. My gut says this area is probably in a low chance of a good event, but it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Seriously...let's get back on track. We have at least 2 or 3 banter/bitching threads. Keep it in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Does it seem realistic that the high to the north goes away completely as a previous post has shown? Maybe it was over done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Models have mid upper 50's this weekend in usual torch spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ggem ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Dual low, not two camps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ggem typically has a warm bias too right? I know it used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ggem typically has a warm bias too right? I know it used to.I have found limited use for those ensembles. They are erratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I have found limited use for those ensembles. They are erratic.I find them to sometimes have a more appropriate level of spread than the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I find them to sometimes have a more appropriate level of spread than the gefs. I honestly just casually look at the mean. They can change quite a bit. I definitely don't weigh the Canadian ensembles very much this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Para Euro shifted well west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Para euro having typical op seizures too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think some expect jan MA blizzard like accuracy by the models and that just won't be the case here. Even the steady as she's goes euro has bounced around from hugger to strung out se back to hugger. Tons of energy rounding the base so I think guidance will continue to misfire until we are within d4 or so. Not saying we should wait for perfect bm track either. Certainly the less than ideal north is a concern. Just a wait and see approach is best...how's that for a BTV like AFD of "check back this weekend". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think some expect jan MA blizzard like accuracy by the models and that just won't be the case here. Even the steady as she's goes euro has bounced around from hugger to strung out se back to hugger. Tons of energy rounding the base so I think guidance will continue to misfire until we are within d4 or so. Not saying we should wait for perfect bm track either. Certainly the less than ideal north is a concern. Just a wait and see approach is best...how's that for a BTV like AFD of "check back this weekend". The Jan blizzard basically had a big 50/50 low so the model adjustments were not going to be large...this is why having a block is nice, because it really narrows the path of where a low can go. Without one, you are all over the map with just minor changes upstream a few days out. So it is no surprise that this one is especially tough on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The Jan blizzard basically had a big 50/50 low so the model adjustments were not going to be large...this is why having a block is nice, because it really narrows the path of where a low can go. Without one, you are all over the map with just minor changes upstream a few days out. So it is no surprise that this one is especially tough on the models. I don't think this can be over emphasized, Really it has been this way for most storm systems this year, Why would it change now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So the 6z GFS shows a good amount of snow getting pulled back into the midwest. As I understand it, systems that slam the midwest (that far west from the coast) are not terribly common, so my question is: in a storm like that, where is all of the moisture coming from? Is it all coming from the Atlantic (as with a more traditional coastal storm)? You mean the Ohio Valley? The moisture is coming from the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. And some travels down the rockies from the Pacific off the NW coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 You mean the Ohio Valley? The moisture is coming from the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. And some travels down the rockies from the Pacific off the NW coast. I'd say the vast majority is coming from the GOM this season, but its different in other regimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The Jan blizzard basically had a big 50/50 low so the model adjustments were not going to be large...this is why having a block is nice, because it really narrows the path of where a low can go. Without one, you are all over the map with just minor changes upstream a few days out. So it is no surprise that this one is especially tough on the models. Yea, it's too bad mondays system can't form a transient 50/50, just enough to keep wed/thur from going up over nyc. Unless I'm reading it wrong and it still can? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The one thing I noted yesterday..As the models ramped up the Sunday night/Monday storm..it helped confluence a bit. The overnight runs weakend it and dropped it farther south..and I wonder out loud if that didn't have a direct effect on these massive west shifts we saw last night? Seems so far the 12z runs are bringing back the first wave..so perhaps things might stabilize or even shift back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The one thing I noted yesterday..As the models ramped up the Sunday night/Monday storm..it helped confluence a bit. The overnight runs weakend it and dropped it farther south..and I wonder out loud if that didn't have a direct effect on these massive west shifts we saw last night? Seems so far the 12z runs are bringing back the first wave..so perhaps things might stabilize or even shift back a bit. Didn't think any 12z runs came out yet other than the nam before 10:45 Or are we referring to sunday/monday as the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 NAM still likes Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Didn't think any 12z runs came out yet other than the nam before 10:45 Starting to understand the Lol I gave you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Starting to understand the Lol I gave you? I guess so haha. But the plow truck is fixed so BRING ON THE SNOW! I guess the 12z runs are coming out of his basement today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The one thing I noted yesterday..As the models ramped up the Sunday night/Monday storm..it helped confluence a bit. The overnight runs weakend it and dropped it farther south..and I wonder out loud if that didn't have a direct effect on these massive west shifts we saw last night? Seems so far the 12z runs are bringing back the first wave..so perhaps things might stabilize or even shift back a bit. I would think it's because the high and confluence is now more on Monday, and then moves out allowing the mid-week to go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Starting to understand the Lol I gave you? So you are saying the only 12z runs out today are the NAM..Just want to clarify your statement here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.