Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Remember when there was excitement that this would be a wintry week next week. and there was indication of days of snow..and that there were thoughts that ice had higher than usual chance of happening? Now we're left wondering if even Stowe, Vt can eek out a few sloppy inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 6z GEFS plots All I have to say is WOW. What an enormous shift west. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Kevin--do you want to do the honors of sticking a fork in it and firing up this year's lawn thread? No lawn thread as it will snow again in early March, but yes this event is wire to wire rain for all of SNE..possibly as far north as Maine At least we can get another screamer out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie lol. Maybe naso crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I really just don't know what the hell happened. Certainly this was not something mets thought could happen High goes bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 6z 12 K NAM looks nice for South of the Pike on Monday away from the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Weaker confluence over the top , banana to the north splits like a peel, earlier phase and negative tilt to the trough, stronger WAR. Hopefully something changes. Doesn't look like a really good injection of arctic air prior to the storm so even those with the cad fetish may be dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There was some early signs when some of the nice looking Ensemble means were the result of a compromise between amped cutters and suppression. There's still some time for the modeling to change but it doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol, All the doom and gloom on a storm 5+ days outThere's always the navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Congrats Ottawa.....again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There was always a chance this could be a cutter. And that was always a caveat. It's looks to be trending to that idea. Will said a day or two ago, that the synoptic set up could easily change with a storm 7 days out. And that's what's happening now on the modeling. It was talked about a lot, we've were warned not to get to attached to any one solution (good or bad). Bring on the warm rains!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There's always the navgem I would not be getting to worried on five day progs, I laugh because when it' looks favorable everyone says not to take and run with it but when it looks bad everyone wants to go off the end of the Tobin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I would not be getting to worried on five day progs, I laugh because when it' looks favorable everyone says not to take and run with it but when it looks bad everyone wants to go off the end of the TobinI know I was joking. It's the 6z gfs.That said, I think I've pretty steadily been reminding about the plethora of cutters that have been showing up on the ensembles since this first came onto the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Dude..look at the massive move on both ensembles. This won't shock me if it ends up starting as rain for a lot of us that post hereAnd there was/is a chance that could happen, But I'm giving this another couple days before passing judgement on it, Nothing says it can't go the other way as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 TossedYeah it's an outlier now. But...wagons west all year.I don't know. Ukie doesnt look to be a miss, but it is weak and warm at 850 at least at 72. And it appears to have a very hot hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 And there was/is a chance that could happen, But I'm giving this another couple days before passing judgement on it, Nothing says it can't go the other way as well What do you see "synoptically" that offers that opportunity? What i see is no banana high no cold air in place(or marginal at best) no blocking +AO All that says probably a OV cut..or a HV cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I know I was joking. It's the 6z gfs. That said, I think I've pretty steadily been reminding about the plethora of cutters that have been showing up on the ensembles since this first came onto the radar. Your joking was well surrounded by a bunch of gloom post and seem to fit right in....... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 What do you see "synoptically" that offers that opportunity? What i see is no banana high no cold air in place(or marginal at best) no blocking +AO All that says probably a OV cut..or a HV cut You see that all modeled.But yeah, not good trends and not a good time for them. It looks like the 6z GEFS are the only ensembles that really cut the chord. Maybe let that happen on the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I prefer the tropical threat thread I'm determined to be in a good one this year lol The spread is still pretty significant so I don't know why anyone is saying its over plus it 5 days out we still don't know what Monday will bring Local Mets already talking snow to rain. Don't care anymore. It's over. Never got started. We're done. Bring on the lawn thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 What do you see "synoptically" that offers that opportunity? What i see is no banana high no cold air in place(or marginal at best) no blocking +AO All that says probably a OV cut..or a HV cut I'm not sold on the high just getting vaporized and moves out as fast as what's being modeled just yet, We all know how the models sometimes handle these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 You yesterday. All snow said he thought it would end up cutting..you posted "I don't" Right. I didn't think it would go into Cleveland. But there wasn't a reason why it couldn't go into SNE and still be a wet system. It's early still. I think it's curtains for me, but interior is still in the game for some sort of snow or mix. We'll see what 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Just went on Wxbell and looked at last nights 0z Euro run and it was 6-12" for most on this board on weds away from the immediate coast, Im sure there is some ice in there as well for some but that still looked very wintry to me...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I really just don't know what the hell happened. Certainly this was not something mets thought could happen i'm guessing you haven't been reading very well....remember when I said yesterday don't be surprised if synoptics change? That's what happens when you start following a threat at day 8-9....synoptics can change...it's not like following a threat starting at 4-5 days out when synoptics don't change as drastically...usually it's the details. That said, this is still a long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 i'm guessing you haven't been reading very well....remember when I said yesterday don't be surprised if synoptics change? That's what happens when you start following a threat at day 8-9....synoptics can change...it's not like following a threat starting at 4-5 days out when synoptics don't change as drastically...usually it's the details. That said, this is still a long ways out. I cant believe i had to try to play your roll..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This is why we have a model thread at least. To keep the emotionally attached from 174 hours out in one place. Kevin, repeat after me before sleep every night and you'll have a more peaceful experience: "Synoptics can change 7 days out" "Synoptics can change 7 days out" "Synoptics can change 7 day out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not implying what I think outcome will be. "Wed" is estimate because I couldn't fit "mid week". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 lol how often do rainers at this time frame trend to snowstorms? maybe 10% of the time at best ? Maybe ORH has some statistics And unless you actually looked at the models it's not rain for everyone, Some are going to have frozen precip issues with this one, Models have had this look almost every run, But it's not rain to Canada like some may lead you to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I didn't mean to call anyone out or say no-one thought warmer solutions..but let's be fair here..the tenor and gist of 98% of the posts from mets and weenies the last few days was that this was likely to be a wintry system even for SNE. I understand synoptics can change. They always do. But this really happened quickly. This wasn't a gradual thing where it went from looking like snow to an icy mix trending as rain or something like that. This went from snow/ice/winter storm almost likely to predominately rain in basically 1 fell swoop. Shame on me I guess for not thinking the UKMET solution had any merit That's what happens at >5 days out, 4 days really. Models can jump 500 miles from run to run. So we are calling it verified? Let it play out, and melt when it is inside 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I didn't mean to call anyone out or say no-one thought warmer solutions..but let's be fair here..the tenor and gist of 98% of the posts from mets and weenies the last few days was that this was likely to be a wintry system even for SNE. I understand synoptics can change. They always do. But this really happened quickly. This wasn't a gradual thing where it went from looking like snow to an icy mix trending as rain or something like that. This went from snow/ice/winter storm almost likely to predominately rain in basically 1 fell swoop. Shame on me I guess for not thinking the UKMET solution had any merit I think you need to hold tight. What if the euro ensemble is right? That's a lot of wintry precip for the interior. Hold off on saying all rain to Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think you need to hold tight. What if the euro ensemble is right? That's a lot of wintry precip for the interior. Hold off on saying all rain to Stowe.6z GFS just jumped west 500 miles at hour 120. Adjustments of 10-15 miles from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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