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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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Yea, at this point, I'm not really blinking until I see a major snowstorm modeled on reliable guidance inside of 72 hours.

lol can't remember a storm where we have locked in prior to 72, the ebb and flow here is hilarious. There is a huge disconnect between what we often discuss about model outputs and what most of us would forecast. Too many years of things changing in 12 hrs. Best to be Euro like and evolve slowly. Especially with snow 50 miles can be huge.
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lol can't remember a storm where we have locked in prior to 72, the ebb and flow here is hilarious. There is a huge disconnect between what we often discuss about model outputs and what most of us would forecast. Too many years of things changing in 12 hrs. Best to be Euro like and evolve slowly. Especially with snow 50 miles can be huge.

Who said that?

Just show me one run of a reliable model within 72 and I'm in.

 

My one last hope is early March, but I have one foot out the door....this season is taking on the appeal of early Feb 2010, when I called the season and everyone flipped, but it ended up being a good call.

 

This season has that stink to it.

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Who said that?

Just show me one run of a reliable model within 72 and I'm in.

My one last hope is early March, but I have one foot out the door....this season is taking on the appeal of early Feb 2010, when I called the season and everyone flipped, but it ended up being a good call.

This season has that stink to it.

:weenie:
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I was as hopeful for this winter as anyone, but the time comes when you just need to throw up your arms and admit that "it blows"....

Just some bad luck and the absents of a -nao. Still enjoy reading your seasonal thoughts. I agree it's time to just move on to other things as the clock is ticking and week 3-4 looking great on the weeklies is not very inspiring.

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Just some bad luck and the absents of a -nao. Still enjoy reading your seasonal thoughts. I agree it's time to just move on to other things as the clock is ticking and week 3-4 looking great on the weeklies is not very inspiring.

I'm happy with the outlook.

I missed the NAO, and missed the 3rd largest blizzard in history by an eskimo queef, but aside from that, it worked out well.

Don't get me wrong....my grade will reflect the short comings....no excuses.

 

It all evens out.....my outlook last year looked amazing, but I got lucky.

 

This year looks bad, but I got porked.

 

The aggregate effort is good, not bad, not great.

It is what it is.

 

I'll try to do better next year, and in the mean time, hope to salvage something more in the home stretch of this year.

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I actually feel somewhat fortunate around here. The winter has not been great, but we again mounted a 10"+ storm in a sea of meh. Closing in on 30".

best most damaging paste storm since 97 here, still seeing lots of damage around. Then the coldest wind chill since 94. Let's see what the next 3 weeks bring This is my land right next to my driveway. It's like this everywhere up here. Crazy week

20160218_063345.jpg

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best most damaging paste storm since 97 here, still seeing lots of damage around. Then the coldest wind chill since 94. Let's see what the next 3 weeks bring This is my land right next to my driveway. It's like this everywhere up here. Crazy week

20160218_063345.jpg

Definitely some decent damage. Still looks like a sea breeze compared to Feb 2013.

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I like the look on the weeklies. Climo starts to hurt us a bit with temps in March but 500 mb looks really nice. Adding a negative NAO to a +PNA can only help, and the EPO tanks pretty good towards the middle of the month. Sitting at 18 inches of snow now and looking at the weeklies, I'm starting to feel like I may come close to escaping ratter material here which in my mind is under 35. Dead ratter for me is under 28.

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Definitely some decent damage. Still looks like a sea breeze compared to Feb 2013.

yea Marshfield FTW with that but this is just my yard. Heard crazy stories from our on call Electrician today of power on for hours to houses with dancing wires down arcing all around and Eversource not showing up for hours.
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