ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Who is Dan? dan123, the poster you responded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 18z GFS still flat and sheared out for Monday...but that model has to be tossed given the other guidance. We'll see how the big one develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Para is a hugger with a good front end looks right over CC I'm actually surprised at how different the Para is from the Operational but I guess it makes sense as those little differences get magnified out in time. Looks further south (though much wetter in CT, drier north of the Pike) than the OP for Monday, and huge circulation hugger for the mid-week storm (gives Pittsburgh 12-18" where the OP is a sunny day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Monday excites you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 dan123, the poster you responded to. Oh..I didn't mean him per se..Just that wherever rain was a sure thing we were glad we don't live there. On another note..didn't you post a few hours ago, that there's a higher risk of ice with this than usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Oh..I didn't mean him per se..Just that wherever rain was a sure thing we were glad we don't live there. On another note..didn't you post a few hours ago, that there's a higher risk of ice with this than usual? So much twisting of words in a single post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Oh..I didn't mean him per se..Just that wherever rain was a sure thing we were glad we don't live there. On another note..didn't you post a few hours ago, that there's a higher risk of ice with this than usual? Yes...there still is. I'm just noting a trend today. That way you may not be so shocked if it doesn't look as icy 2 or 3 runs from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Monday excites you? maybe I'll bite come Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What a weird gfs evolution. Strung out like a dancer at a run down gentlemen's club in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What a weird gfs evolution. Strung out like a dancer at a run down gentlemen's club in Tolland. I'll buy it when it caves on the first wave or other models cave to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Is this the rossby wave train ventrice was speaking of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'll buy it when it caves on the first wave or other models cave to it.Euro was definitely weaker too, but not like gfs op. Also agree with Will. That high is in a rather lousy spot. Matters more for me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro was definitely weaker too, but not like gfs op. Also agree with Will. That high is in a rather lousy spot. Matters more for me though. I'm just saying, you can't have the kind of swings the GFS is having at 60 hours out and expect a consistent solution at 160 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 So much twisting of words in a single post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 remember when this was progged to have tons of qpf .........yesterday, lol it will probably come back. Monday first then we decide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 And then the PV comes down and says hello. Perfect ending if this does evolve into a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 All ensembles as BOX noted are juiced and loaded up. I wouldn't join the qpf queens on this..Coming out of the gulf and a juicy STJ..it will be loaded for bear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 And then the PV comes down and says hello. Perfect ending if this does evolve into a cutter. Thinking out loud that cutter is a western outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Thinking out loud that cutter is a western outlier I think the cutter is still a distinct possibility but has faded from the center stage a bit over the last couple days. But just saying, from a sensible perspective it would be epically crappy if we got a cutter followed by PV suppression - again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I think the GGEM scenario is the best ob the table for BOTH inland and coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What a weird gfs evolution. Strung out like a dancer at a run down gentlemen's club in Tolland. That is how you do can make meteorology more accessible to the public, create a clear and indelible mental image. I'd like to hear more of this type of description from on-air mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I think the GGEM scenario is the best ob the table for BOTH inland and coastal locations. For our yards it's nice front end but it washes away with tropical like rains. Also, se sne would not hit the ggem at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Way out in lalaland but there is definitely a signal for a moisture bomb around the first week of March. Surprised how wet the GEFS and GEPS both have been over the southeast around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm battle tested...I lived through 1988-1989 to 1991-1992. 4 consecutive winters without a double digit snowfall in ORH. (and of course all those winters well below average snowfall including a top 5 and a top 10) I vaguely remember those winters in SNE. Was a kid. Just remember several seasons without much more than a few inches here or there- it really formed my standard view of winter as a kid. Then 1992-1993 rolled around and that massive storm hit. Then there were several good dumps the following years. Never thought snow could get that deep as a 10 year old. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Way out in lalaland but there is definitely a signal for a moisture bomb around the first week of March. Surprised how wet the GEFS and GEPS both have been over the southeast around that time. If there is a period when this winter won't fail, I think it is early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 S MENTIONED ABOVE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST NEXT WED/THU. IN ADDITION 1035 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MARITIMES TO NEWFOUNDLAND WILL SUPPLY INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ON THE FRONT END. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF BUT A HIGH RISK FOR A HEAVY QPF EVENT GIVEN SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION. HOWEVER LOW PROB ON THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON AMPLITUDE AND POSITION OF MEAN TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM MEAN RIDGE. A SLIGHT HEDGE TOWARD A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT FOR THE COAST AND SNOW TO ICE INLAND FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS: 1)AIRMASS ON THE FRONT END IS NOT ANOMALOUSLY COLD...THUS SOMEWHAT EASIER TO ERODE COLD AIR ESPECIALLY ALOFT 2) GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC FAVORS A MORE WESTWARD SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TRACK /NOT OUT TO SEA/ OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MID LEVEL WARM LAYER TRACKING FARTHER NORTH. 3) OVERALL TENOR OF THE SEASON TO SNOW AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. DROP SONDES OVER THE PACIFIC AND RAOBS OVER THE ARTIC HAVE BOTH DETECTED THE PRESENCE OF A COSMIC DIDLDO OF ABOUT +3 SD IN GIRTH. SO ONCE AGAIN A VERY PRELIMINARY FIRST CUT WOULD SUGGEST SNOW TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW TO ICE INLAND. COULD BE SIGNIFICANT GIVEN POTENTIAL QPF WITH SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION. Found the correct AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 If there is a period when this winter won't fail, I think it is early March.check out the weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 check out the weeklies Yea, at this point, I'm not really blinking until I see a major snowstorm modeled on reliable guidance inside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yea, at this point, I'm not really blinking until I see a major snowstorm modeled on reliable guidance inside of 72 hours. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This I was as hopeful for this winter as anyone, but the time comes when you just need to throw up your arms and admit that "it blows".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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