JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Should cover up the grassy surfaces down here anyways Rgem ensembles were pretty bullish along with the OP for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Rgem ensembles were pretty bullish along with the OP for SaturdayThe Op did not get out far enough up here as it would have been still snowing past hr 48 at 12 z here, should start to get in range at 0z tonight, Curious to see how bullish it remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Did not get out far enough up here as it would have been still snowing past hr 48 at 12 z here, should start to get in range at 0z tonight, Curious to see how bullish it remains Rgem ensembles go out to 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'll take the GEPS for both storms, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Rgem ensembles go out to 72 Ninja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 ..The best storm I recall happening thus far this season came from a system that was all but completely obliterated into a pancaked nothingness, that came whip-lashed back in like 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 ..The best storm I recall happening thus far this season came from a system that was all but completely obliterated into a pancaked nothingness, that came whip-lashed back in like 18 hours. Well there was that storm that dumped 1-3 feet of snow from DC to Bridgeport. But if you mean Ayer, MA then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro ensemble mean is a nice track just inside the BM, but there must be solutions all over the map just based on mean QPF...it extends measurable back into E Ohio. Though the good news is I don't see any west of that, so I'm guessing it doesn't support the Ukie's Cleveland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro ensemble mean is a nice track just inside the BM, but there must be solutions all over the map just based on mean QPF...it extends measurable back into E Ohio. Though the good news is I don't see any west of that, so I'm guessing it doesn't support the Ukie's Cleveland track. The uncle is on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro ensemble mean is a nice track just inside the BM, but there must be solutions all over the map just based on mean QPF...it extends measurable back into E Ohio. Though the good news is I don't see any west of that, so I'm guessing it doesn't support the Ukie's Cleveland track. That's been the thing we've seen on all modeling..Just a massive areal coverage of precip. Not a tightly wound close to coast solution. So Freak can probably pull the ski poles out of his abdomen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro ensemble mean is a nice track just inside the BM, but there must be solutions all over the map just based on mean QPF...it extends measurable back into E Ohio. Though the good news is I don't see any west of that, so I'm guessing it doesn't support the Ukie's Cleveland track. Sounds kind of close to the GEFS. Selfish question - but would a just inside BM track put western coastal CT into mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro ensemble mean is a nice track just inside the BM, but there must be solutions all over the map just based on mean QPF...it extends measurable back into E Ohio. Though the good news is I don't see any west of that, so I'm guessing it doesn't support the Ukie's Cleveland track. Looking at the individuals there is a ginormous amount of spread for mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Thread for the Saturday NNE clipper: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47907-2202016-clipper/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Are we ignoring the 4-5 day for an 8 day? If you are referring to Monday than yes. That is a C/NNE clippah in my opinion. Mostly rain in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well there was that storm that dumped 1-3 feet of snow from DC to Bridgeport. But if you mean Ayer, MA then yes. yeah, i meant only for Ayer ma you ding dong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 18Z NAM looking robust for NNE on Friday/Saturday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 well... the ukmet may be wrong in general, but that doesn't look unreasonable to me in itself - the ridge in the west is way west ...like oregon... we really want that axis to be either situated over the dekotas or in the least progressing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm seeing the ensembles pulling off some absolute monster storms, and they are doing it blowing up any one of the several s/ws in the flow. This could be a total bust, but it could also be a really nice 10 day stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Think total bust has zero chance..A storm is happening near enough to drop snow/ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 S MENTIONED ABOVE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST NEXT WED/THU. INADDITION 1035 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MARITIMES TO NEWFOUNDLAND WILLSUPPLY INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ON THE FRONT END. STILL A LONG WAYSOFF BUT A HIGH RISK FOR A HEAVY QPF EVENT GIVEN SUBTROPICALCONNECTION. HOWEVER LOW PROB ON THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN UNCERTAINTYON AMPLITUDE AND POSITION OF MEAN TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM MEAN RIDGE.A SLIGHT HEDGE TOWARD A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT FOR THE COAST AND SNOW TOICE INLAND FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:1)AIRMASS ON THE FRONT END IS NOT ANOMALOUSLY COLD...THUS SOMEWHATEASIER TO ERODE COLD AIR ESPECIALLY ALOFT2) GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERNATLC FAVORS A MORE WESTWARD SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TRACK /NOT OUT TOSEA/ OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MID LEVELWARM LAYER TRACKING FARTHER NORTH.SO ONCE AGAIN A VERY PRELIMINARY FIRST CUT WOULD SUGGEST SNOW TORAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW TO ICE INLAND. COULD BE SIGNIFICANTGIVEN POTENTIAL QPF WITH SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Think total bust has zero chance..A storm is happening near enough to drop snow/ice Maybe even rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Maybe even rain too. Glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Glad we don't live there You don't live where it rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Glad we don't live there You don't live where it rains? The irony is that Dan's region (up near Methuen?...unless he moved) has had a huge ice storm more recently than Kevin's area...Dec 2008 was a disaster up there around Essex county while it was mostly rain in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Glad we don't live there para 4-6 Mon 6-8 Wed/Thurs in ur fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You don't live where it rains? I would think the rain probabilities are mostly for the SE coast. May be snow to ice CT coast. Anything possible. They should make weather gambling and have odds for each scenario. At least we know it wouldnt be fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The only thing that might be more worrisome for plain rain is that on today's 12z guidance, the Quebec/Nova Scotia high has become the main source...it isn't bridging up with the Canadian prairies high anymore...there's an extension of the PV that develops a low down into the lakes region around the same time we get our coastal....so this would increase the risk of rain closer to the coast. Obviously that might not hold...but that is an example of what I mentioned yesterday saying "the synoptics could change". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Para is a hugger with a good front end looks right over CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The only thing that might be more worrisome for plain rain is that on today's 12z guidance, the Quebec/Nova Scotia high has become the main source...it isn't bridging up with the Canadian prairies high anymore...there's an extension of the PV that develops a low down into the lakes region around the same time we get our coastal....so this would increase the risk of rain closer to the coast. Obviously that might not hold...but that is an example of what I mentioned yesterday saying "the synoptics could change". I saw the low in the GL and was like heck where did that Biatch come from. Once Monday passes we should have a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Who is Dan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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