Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Good stuff. Spring will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 there's extensive wave contention issues out over the open Pacific. looking over the last couple cycle's worth of GFS operational runs re the full latitude synoptic evolution at 500mb shows a cornucopia of waves the model's are charged with handling, and their interactions (correctly modeling) is paramount to determinism down stream post relay over N/A. Firstly, timing and variance therein are going to be more prone to error given to the "flatness" of the flow over all. There is a tendency to "buckle" the flow, but it is still doing it in a narrow enough corridor (everywhere) to fit squarely inside the latitudes above HA and below Alaska. The wave dynamics that would (presumably) go on to produce the mid-week most important trough amplitude in the east, was as of 00z's initialization...just leaving Japan's sector. It's flat and wide open, with a lot of normalized jet velocity arcing its underbelly... As this massive impulse translates quickly across the Basin, another trough ...having smaller spatial dimensions but a bit more actual streak energy, plays catch-up. This latter feature really amplifies by the time it gets near the longitudes of HA, at the expense of the beloved lead ..which per course -work has been getting negatively influenced (destructive wave interference) do to wave physics. Par for the tenor of this winter, that destructive interference be seen in model guidance that's preceding an event by 4 to 10 days between Coasts... But, that 'damping' of the lead mechanics then means that what finally squirts through the western building ridge has had some power stolen from it. I am noticing the static heights over the SE in between successive waves is not appreciably high; nor are the intramural wind velocities very far above 35 knts. That means (for me) that as waves propagate E of the MV through the TV and Gulf interface regions .. .they are not getting absorbed by howling winds (shear) and thus dimming their cyclogen capacities... So that is good for storm seeking. That leaves it up to the maelstrom over the Pacific to deliver the goods... The last couple of runs of most guidance I have seen show that delivery to be shredding ... most likely do to the wave-spacing issues about between HA and Alaska as discussed above. The implicit argument here is that the Pacific flow isn't necessarily being correctly handled, and could correct either way(s). Should the second impulse become dominant, than the lead washes out more entirely, and that opens even more uncertainty downstream over mid latitudes/N/A. If it trends weaker...the leads then comes through the ridge stronger and has more to conserve as it tanks in latitude over eastern America and there you go... One thing: the general canvas is still supporting more amplitude...I am not sure how that helps (or not) all these affairs, but that is a monster +PNA era at this point, so waves of any strength coming through the west would get a huge steroid injection off of large-scale amplification-feedbacks. You're late Cue the next five paragraph soliloquy from Tip about the tenor of this season. At 168 even though it looks good at the surface, it looks like at least three different shortwaves embedded in the longwave trough. Am I seeing that right? (looking at freebie maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 12z GFS not interested for Monday, Sheared and well south OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 12z GFS not interested for Monday, Sheared and well south OTS In 24 hours, it has taken that thing from central NH to southern VA. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 12z GFS not interested for Monday, Sheared and well south OTS Yeah that shortwave just can't get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 In 24 hours, it has taken that thing from central NH to southern VA. Just wow. It's been very nam like this winter. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That animation is awesomefollow @Recretos, dude is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Ride the Euro / Ukie on the Monday deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 12z GFS not interested for Monday, Sheared and well south OTS Really just presses the boundary and throws up a couple possibly spurious mesolows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Really just presses the boundary and throws up a couple possibly spurious mesolows. Its a weak vort at H5 with wave interference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Seems like the next low after Monday will be a solution in between the 00z and 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The thurs system should be better on the 12z GFS then 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Now it's got it on Thursday? Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 12z should be better based off h5 and kinks in the isobars along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 12z should be better based off h5 and kinks in the isobars along the EC. That surface low looks...slippery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Now it's got it on Thursday? Wtf That's the main event. Not the Monday meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Still kind of a mess at 500 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Now it's got it on Thursday? Wtf It still weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That's the main event. Not the Monday meh.Well originally it was Tues nite into Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Now it's got it on Thursday? Wtf no it's Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Still kind of a mess at 500 on the GFS. Looks like a late save Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Now it's got it on Thursday? Wtf no still wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like ice down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like a late save It's pretty messy. Kind of gets strung out verbatim. A lot of energy digging behind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like ice down here The ice threat in this system is definitely higher than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Snow and/or mix back to snow in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It's pretty messy. Kind of gets strung out verbatim. A lot of energy digging behind though. Yes, There was a lot on the backside that helped it out late this run digging the trough further south where 06z did not dig as it was weak and just ran it out to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I think the ice threat is going to be real for some as it seems to remain a cold system at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GEM a really nice hit for Monday...solid advisory event for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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