Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 if there are such issues with the thermal profiles why doesn't the government fix it??lol, I would vote that all the useless models be scrapped or run 2 a day. Get rid of the 3 dozen climate models save a few, put that computing money into upgrade. Sorry to the tech in Ray's basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The GFS should be getting some big upgrades. I think they're doubling the vertical levels to 128 and increasing the horz res to about 10km. I'm not sure a "hybrid" 4DVAR will cut it, but we'll see I guess. I'm salivating over that Monday system. The 18z GFS would have a really nice ribbon of +SN just north of that H7 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 lol, I would vote that all the useless models be scrapped or run 2 a day. Get rid of the 3 dozen climate models save a few, put that computing money into upgrade. Sorry to the tech in Ray's basement over the past six seasons on here I have seen the struggle with what the outcomes of thermal profiles will actually be for so many events largely due to guidance that you cannot trust which is a case of what is called modeling vs meteorology just seems that in this day and age of superior technology it should not be so frustrating the only thing which seems to be certain is that mid level warmth often comes in quicker than modeled for sne and cne and nyc to mid atlantic this is important in the winter as a fair percentage of winter wx events involve changeovers and mixed precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 We've stated for many years. You can make a better and more accurate forecast by never using any GFS related product. I challenge mets to try it. You will become instant heroes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The GFS should be getting some big upgrades. I think they're doubling the vertical levels to 128 and increasing the horz res to about 10km. I'm not sure a "hybrid" 4DVAR will cut it, but we'll see I guess. I'm salivating over that Monday system. The 18z GFS would have a really nice ribbon of +SN just north of that H7 track. Still catching up to Euro track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 We've stated for many years. You can make a better and more accurate forecast by never using any GFS related product. I challenge mets to try it. You will become instant heroesSomeday NCEP will figure it out. We're getting to the point where the model errors are very small and very close with one another inside of 1-2d. The euro isn't lightyears ahead like it was a decade ago so we've been seeing more random models scoring coups inside of that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The GFS should be getting some big upgrades. I think they're doubling the vertical levels to 128 and increasing the horz res to about 10km. I'm not sure a "hybrid" 4DVAR will cut it, but we'll see I guess. I'm salivating over that Monday system. The 18z GFS would have a really nice ribbon of +SN just north of that H7 track. I know higher ups are pretty excited about it, but in the end it just keeps us a step behind the ECMWF with their upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Para Euro goes live Morch 8th, so the Europeon assassins must feel it's now better than old Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Para Euro goes live Morch 8th, so the Europeon assassins must feel it's now better than old EuroIt is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The GFS should be getting some big upgrades. I think they're doubling the vertical levels to 128 and increasing the horz res to about 10km. I'm not sure a "hybrid" 4DVAR will cut it, but we'll see I guess. I'm salivating over that Monday system. The 18z GFS would have a really nice ribbon of +SN just north of that H7 track. Any chance Monday can gain some strength and sink south a bit? Plow truck broke down and the extra 2 days to fix it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Any chance Monday can gain some strength and sink south a bit? Plow truck broke down and the extra 2 days to fix it would be nice.It goes south of LI on Euro and GGEM. So yes, it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 18z GFS is f awesome with on average 3 1/2" of rain at 32.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It goes south of LI on Euro and GGEM. So yes, it will snow Plowable? 3 inches? And if it's day 4/5 why not start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Plowable? 3 inches? And if it's day 4/5 why not start a threadA narrow stripe will get that much yes. Euro just picked up on it today. So we need another run or 2 to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 A narrow stripe will get that much yes. Euro just picked up on it today. So we need another run or 2 to be sure In your opionon is there anyway this will become more widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS had Mondays iffy event since Tues 18Z, but Euro picks up on it today so default to its solution cause apparently, it's definitely gonna verify, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Fox 25 not buying the midweek storm. 50F and rain for Wednesday. Let's see what the 00z suite shows. Still D6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Always wondered if a GFS thermals are so bad why do Mets post Mos and Mex numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Always wondered if a GFS thermals are so bad why do Mets post Mos and Mex numbers MOS has a "memory" so it "learns" from past setups. Still, it's not very good to use either in CAD setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 In your opionon is there anyway this will become more widespreadLol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Fox 25 not buying the midweek storm. 50F and rain for Wednesday. Let's see what the 00z suite shows. Still D6-7. Rip and read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Lol What is funny about being prepared so I don't lose my customers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What is funny about being prepared so I don't lose my customers...He might have to charge you a fee for his professional opinion. And he already went to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 He might have to charge you a fee for his professional opinion. And he already went to bed. When did I say professional? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 00z GFS has no Monday wave...well it does..it's just sheared and flat to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The whole flow is flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS will probably be better with the mid week system this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Rip and read? geoff fox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS will probably be better with the mid week system this runThere's a low where our high needs to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like a Hudson Valley runner this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.