Hoth Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Its so lost. Finally catching on that Monday is snowy and just getting a clue that there's another HP bananaing in for mid week storm. Euro FTW Hope so. Super wet run, but looks like that first wave warms up the midlevels without that HP there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The thing with "Tendencies" is that why should we use them? Last year everything went right before 3 weeks and then it changed in late Feb/Mar....in 2011 we had epic January and early February, then it changed....in 2006-2007 we had a deplorable first half and then it changed. In 2012-2013 we had an awful first half (on the coast anyway, not interior) and then it changed. I kind of liked late Feb and March last year with 19 inches of snow and depth added with deep cold. But yea seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The GFS is such horsesh*t with the thermals. That high nosing in and it's barely cold from 1000-850 even in the Berks. Yeah, ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Hey man you were just as salty back in 2011-2012 with the comments about how much winter has sucked. Link to the 125 comments like you. We get it dude your winter has sucked, move on, pretty sweet period coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That 18z GFS setup is pretty sweet for areas north of the Pike. 200 miles north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 200 miles north? like Scooter explained it makes zero sense thermally. Don't take it literally in matter of fact don't take it at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 If you thought BTV was bad, BOX was worse. No mention of snow Monday and just mentions fronts and low pressure systems around next week. That had to have been one of the most piss poor ones written this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I much prefer dr no in the yes camp while the gfs bounces around from foster home to foster home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 like Scooter explained it makes zero sense thermally. Don't take it literally in matter of fact don't take it at all lol I honestly have no idea how that model can be such an abomination with temps. Lack of vertical levels FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I honestly have no idea how that model can be such an abomination with temps. Lack of vertical levels FTL. I don't know how some think that it has out performed the euro this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I honestly have no idea how that model can be such an abomination with temps. Lack of vertical levels FTL. All global models suck on thermals when a strong high is in place it seems. The Euro just sucks slightly less, but even it tends to be too warm most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The thing with "Tendencies" is that why should we use them? Last year everything went right before 3 weeks and then it changed in late Feb/Mar....in 2011 we had epic January and early February, then it changed....in 2006-2007 we had a deplorable first half and then it changed. In 2012-2013 we had an awful first half (on the coast anyway, not interior) and then it changed. Maybe it's the Inter-Mountain West method of forecasting a la inversion breaking. Go with persistence, that way you're only wrong once, when the tendency fails? Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 All global models suck on thermals when a strong high is in place it seems. The Euro just sucks slightly less, but even it tends to be too warm most of the time They have their weaknesses..but it's amazing how piss poor the GFS is. Way too warm. I understand it's all relative. I'm not saying the GFS has 950mb temps of +10 when it should be 0C, but compared to other guidance...Oye Vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That's a hell of a lot of QPF on that run. 5-6" in eastern NE by 200 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ginxy already beat me to it. I was curious after Tip's post, and subsequently looked up the days of the week where the most extreme winter storm events struck NE. While most have occured on a weekend, some of the most intense have not. As Ginxy noted, the blizzards of 1978 and 2015 being most notable. Here are helpful links for this research: http://www.dayoftheweek.org/?m=January&d=27&y=2015&go=Go#axzz40SisZR3A https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis Looking at the NESIS site, it's pretty obvious why most major storms occur on a weekend...it's because they all affected the broader northeast region over 3 or more days. So you are already starting with odds of at least one weekend day falling within that period just based on the math of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Not much doubt the next 10-15 days is pretty active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 They have their weaknesses..but it's amazing how piss poor the GFS is. Way too warm. I understand it's all relative. I'm not saying the GFS has 950mb temps of +10 when it should be 0C, but compared to other guidance...Oye Vey. The GFS will always miss overrunning snow beyond 96-108 on systems that go snow to rain. I'm sure it's similar in SNE but down here you usually see no sign of overrunning snow til inside day 5, prior to that its always a rain event, even with a strong high in place. The AVN used to do that all the time as well, the difference was the AVN did it til inside 48-60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looking at the NESIS site, it's pretty obvious why most major storms occur on a weekend...it's because they all affected the broader northeast region over 3 or more days. So you are already starting with odds of at least one weekend day falling within that period just based on the math of it. That's a great point.. Thanks for that. Sometimes, the most obvious explanation is the one that's missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That would probably be a horrific icestorm outside of 128 on the GFS (we toss the low level thermals on that model) with good snow on the front and back ends. I doubt it plays out like that but that synoptic setup with the long extended sfc warm front ahead of the main low has been on just about every model today. So it's something to watch if it is still there when we get a couple days closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to the 125 comments like you. We get it dude your winter has sucked, move on, pretty sweet period coming. Haha I'm optimistic. Would enjoy a 4"+ pure snow event. I'll post the link to the 2011-2012 threads in the banter thread. 125 comments on winter sucking is not hard to find that winter. But again move to Banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That would probably be a horrific icestorm outside of 128 on the GFS (we toss the low level thermals on that model) with good snow on the front and back ends. I doubt it plays out like that but that synoptic setup with the long extended sfc warm front ahead of the main low has been on just about every model today. So it's something to watch if it is still there when we get a couple days closer. I enjoy the 56 degree temp at TAN 12z Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I absolutely love when the mets bash the GFS. It's so freaking awesome to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I absolutely love when the mets bash the GFS. It's so freaking awesome to see It's useful if you know where it fails, but you definitely can't rip and read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's useful if you know where it fails, but you definitely can't rip and read it.Yes. It would be nice if it failed less though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I saw the GFS and though toast based on 850's.. Looks like that's up for debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Maybe it's the Inter-Mountain West method of forecasting a la inversion breaking. Go with persistence, that way you're only wrong once, when the tendency fails? HaNot a bad approach. I just think if you know your "base audience" up here (every skier and snowboarder is monitoring every keystroke of the NWS), and yes I think those with outdoor recreation interests are their biggest group, you are going to make damn sure it will snow before getting folks hopes up. It's almost like a Blizz/DIT devil's advocate scenario...if you say it won't snow and it does you still "win" for a huge portion of the population up here. From hotels, lodging, shops, anyone related to tourism, 75% of the public skis/snowboards/snowmobiles, everyone would be much more pleased with a positive snow bust than the opposite. Probably one of the rare areas where a social media poll might actually show that, haha.If you say it's going to snow and it doesn't, I think you're more likely to hear about it. This isn't Boston where if you mess up the evening commute forecast you get castrated, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Yes. It would be nice if it failed less though. It is what it is, an inferior model to the Euro. It's not all of a sudden going to start consistently banging out better verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's useful if you know where it fails, but you definitely can't rip and read it. The low level temps are its major kryptonite. It is so bad with those. They increased the horizontal resolution but it didn't really help...it really probably needs more vertical resolution I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It is what it is, an inferior model to the Euro. It's not all of a sudden going to start consistently banging out better verification.It's not like it is a stagnant object though. Both models are constantly being worked on and upgraded. It's more analogous to a race and we are losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GEFS are pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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