Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Agreed. But....does past performance have any bearing on future events? I'd wager quite a bit, but not lockstep. Each of this winter's events has been surrounded by some other bizarre way to deny many in NE the goods. The curiosity is more in determining which type of poison we will be injected with next Awful AFD , agree things can change on a dime, tenor is a weenie term not a predictor of the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I don't see the big deal with displaying some skepticism at extended leads out of deference to the seasonal tenor. I mean, this is the time of the year you do that......its been months, so we have an idea of what to expect. Oh I agree, you should always be skeptical at that range, but I was meaning more the depressing tone rather than framing the skepticism in something like ensemble guidance or what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Some sage words from BTV: LOOKING OUT TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT ONCE AGAIN MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SORT OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT SEEMS EVERY WEEK GUIDANCE HAS A COASTAL OUT ON DAY 6- 7, SOME OF WHICH HAS PANNED OUT, MOST HAVE NOT. IN FACT, THE ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T EVEN COME ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST UNTIL MONDAY, SO WE LIKELY WON`T HAVE AN IDEA OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS UNTIL MAYBE LATE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED. BTV like everyone else up this way, going to be real gun-shy on anything happening, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 December 2008 was really sloped, the primary low stayed well to our southwest, but the H8 low went over ALY. Dec '73 had a pretty good coastal primary as well. Another really sloped system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Awful AFD , agree things can change on a dime, tenor is a weenie term not a predictor of the future Absolutely.....but denying that seasons develop themes is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I mean I get it, but that's a little Cartman-esque "screw you guys, I'm going home" Whether they like it or not our job is to forecast the weather, good and bad, we can't just throw our hands up and say "we won't know anything until the system is sampled again on the West Coast." What else would you add to that? Its a Day 6-7 threat, we've had numerous up here in the Day 6-9 range that haven't panned out. There was nothing wrong with that statement in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Sorry they didn't stroke your snow-shaft......but at 6 days out in a season which has found reason to fail at least excuse imaginable, I have no problem with that. They basically said "check back later"...what is the big deal? They didn't rule it out.... Not my coverage area for my snowshaft to be stroked. No foreskin in their game. But to not provide a sound professional discussion regarding potential impact because they are clouded by past letdowns is how weenies do it...not govnt agency pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 You could just as easily say the EPS has lows from Quebec to Bermuda at that range, so the forecast is far from locked in. I just think it's funny, because I know deep down Connor is edging towards that cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 There are also usually elements within the overall canvass of a season that dictate said "tendencies"....ie, the relentless +NAO this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Absolutely.....but denying that seasons develop themes is silly. Has zero to do with an AFD, don't try to bring that into our realm. They are supposed to sort out future events not whine about the past. Hope he doesn't join Eyewall on the bridge of tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Not my coverage area for my snowshaft to be stroked. No foreskin in their game. But to not provide a sound professional discussion regarding potential impact because they are clouded by past letdowns is how weenies do it...not govnt agency pros. I hear that. I guess I would consider it more egregious if it were at a closer lead time. I get where you and others are coming from......I found it funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Awful AFD , agree things can change on a dime, tenor is a weenie term not a predictor of the future lol Ginxy never saw a skeptical AFD regarding snow and cold he didn't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Has zero to do with an AFD, don't try to bring that into our realm. They are supposed to sort out future events not whine about the past. Hope he doesn't join Eyewall on the bridge of tears. Hedging in the long range absolutely does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 lol Ginxy never saw a skeptical AFD regarding snow and cold he didn't like. GGW JK, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 lol Ginxy never saw a skeptical AFD regarding snow and cold he didn't like. Lol yea ok bro, enjoy the groomers they are the only groomers ya got, better luck next year. O me o my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 You could just as easily say the EPS has lows from Quebec to Bermuda at that range, so the forecast is far from locked in. I just think it's funny, because I know deep down Connor is edging towards that cliff. You are absolutely right. Venting some frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I hear that. I guess I would consider it more egregious if it were at a closer lead time. I get where you and others are coming from......I found it funny. Yea. All good. Just thought they could be less like MPM and more professiinal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I am the most frustrated I have been since 2010....hands down. 2012 never had a prayer, aside from the Halloween freak that porked me......but this has set some records for pi$$sed away potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 You could just as easily say the EPS has lows from Quebec to Bermuda at that range, so the forecast is far from locked in. I just think it's funny, because I know deep down Connor is edging towards that cliff. Haha he's a great guy, I'll have to show him this thread. Heck I think he lurks here anyway. He was at Stowe a couple weeks back with his son for an event, usually get to ski/ride with him once or twice a season. It does seem sometimes like anytime someone says something that sounds depressing or about this winter sucking, people sort of freak out for whatever reason on here. This area is so filled with folks very close to outdoor winter recreation (that is a huge part of their lives), that it doesn't matter what level weenie you are, it gets painful after a while. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GGW JK, Steve. PF has enough whine to fill up a keg, he needs some cheese, sucks to look at this all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Yea. All good. Just thought they could be less like MPM and more professiinal. lol all it said was we had some day 6-7 threats that didn't work out. You guys are a riot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I am the most frustrated I have been since 2010....hands down. 2012 never had a prayer, aside from the Halloween freak that porked me......but this has set some records for pi$$sed away potential. with todays runs and Ens and this is the day to choose to mentally deteriorate into Iceberg status, geezus get a grip man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 PF has enough whine to fill up a keg, he needs some cheese, sucks to look at this all day How often do I b*tch about the view? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nobody was expecting blizz watches from BTV but damn dood, talk about the system from a met perspectice and man up a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Haha he's a great guy, I'll have to show him this thread. Heck I think he lurks here anyway. He was at Stowe a couple weeks back with his son for an event, usually get to ski/ride with him once or twice a season. It does seem sometimes like anytime someone says something that sounds depressing or about this winter sucking, people sort of freak out for whatever reason on here. This area is so filled with folks very close to outdoor winter recreation (that is a huge part of their lives), that it doesn't matter what level weenie you are, it gets painful after a while. It is what it is. I mean that office is loaded with winter weenies. So you definitely get more of a skew towards wanting snow any time, all the time. Connor is a good guy, I've gotten to collaborate on a few projects with him in the past couple of years. I just got a chuckle out of the AFD sounding like BTV was lining up to take turns swan diving off Whiteface. Maybe Cartman-esque was too strong a statement, more like pure disgust with this winter so far was the tenor of that AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Thats a crushing monday for CNE/NNE on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nobody was expecting blizz watches from BTV but damn dood, talk about the system from a met perspectice and man up a tad. The meltdowns from the NVT crew have bested any I have seen other than the other Iceberg. It will probably be snowy up there for the next week. Tenor may soon be soprano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 gfs with something popping up on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Thats a crushing monday for CNE/NNE on the 18z GFS Can't happen, tenor of the season, just draw the shades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 with todays runs and Ens and this is the day to choose to mentally deteriorate into Iceberg status, geezus get a grip man I just said, I have been out of the loop. i am getting crushed in school, and had a move at work. All I saw was it may be an ice event....that blows big ones of me. If that is wrong, then fine. So far, this winter has been immensely frustrating...one of the most frustrating of my life....neck-and-neck with 2010...only this has been a much $hittier winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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