powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I can't believe that storm is still 8 days away. We will have a good idea in about 14 more EURO runs haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I can't believe that storm is still 8 days away. Euro does have it starting around 162...a little earlier. GFS around 156. That doesn't undermine your point though. This is an eternity and there will definitely be a few who get sucked into thinking it's more of a certainty to track a specific way than it actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 There remains a chance the Monday system impacts the next one, odds are it would be a favorable impact because if it bombed out over eastern Canada it could result in a 50/50 feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Haha oh is 192 as far as TropicalTidbits goes? Gotta start following that model as you've been pretty adamant this winter about its usefulness. I exaggerate a bit because of all the "garbage model" comments when it's really not a garbage model. It seems to line up closer to the Euro than the GFS most of the time, and that usually is a good thing. I was looking at the 12z Ukmet at 144 and it definitely supports the Euro over the GFS as well, particularly wrt the Quebec/Ontario high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Love the JMA. It's not popular but it's more useful then the gfs this winter imo. And when it matches up with euro and ukie to a certain extent, I'm shoving all my chips in before the dealer peels the turn card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Where does it go from there is the question... Just inside the BM into the GOM where most like it................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I'm not really all in btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I'm not really all in btw. I'll bet you tell that to all the girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I'll bet you tell that to all the girls.Well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I'll bet you tell that to all the girls. lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Another very strong euro ensemble signal. Verbatim, great hit for areas just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Another very strong euro ensemble signal. Verbatim, great hit for areas just inland. Sweet, Have not had a chance to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Or on the very edge of a good rainer which is as equally plausible. No he is not on the Euro, anything is plausible, not understanding your point when we are discussing model out puts verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looks really good its just so far away! Another very strong euro ensemble signal. Verbatim, great hit for areas just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Sweet, Have not had a chance to lookOver 1" liquid for us on the mean. Not bad for d8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Over 1" liquid for us on the mean. Not bad for d8. That is not bad at all for the mean, Wow, Lets hope it holds, We need one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Any ensemble signal for the 22nd?(On phone so can't check for myself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That is not bad at all for the mean, Wow, Lets hope it holds, We need one50 miles off MVY to center GOM, a Dryslot special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Over 1" liquid for us on the mean. Not bad for d8. Mean snowfall maps look sweet. Best signal of the winter up here. 10-12"+ for the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, Western Maine with 6" down to BOS and then west along the CT/MA border. That's a ski area run right there. 6-10" on the Maine coastal plain up to the foothills and down towards NH lakes region and south. This is like another case though where the mean maps look more like climo than anything. Most of the long range threats on the mean always look more snowy up here for whatever reason whether or not it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 JMA!! days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Mean snowfall maps look sweet. Best signal of the winter up here. 10-12"+ for the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, Western Maine with 6" down to BOS and then west along the CT/MA border. That's a ski area run right there. 6-10" on the Maine coastal plain up to the foothills and down towards NH lakes region and south. This is like another case though where the mean maps look more like climo than anything. Most of the long range threats on the mean always look more snowy up here for whatever reason whether or not it works out. This season has trained us to be skeptical of favorable solutions at this time range, but I'd be surprised if neither ALB or BTV come out of this with the biggest event of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Another coastal threat around d11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The Euro has an excellent track for us up here next week but that is the problem, it is next week and we have seen this before. It always finds a way to slip away. If this were 2 days out I would be very excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 There remains a chance the Monday system impacts the next one, odds are it would be a favorable impact because if it bombed out over eastern Canada it could result in a 50/50 feature. I'm not convinced we don't see massive corrections toward one or the other as dominant, either. Also... something rattling around as after thoughts that I can't dim in mind, and that's that big time events almost never occur on a Wednesday. ..ha, 'course, this winter i think the yokes would settle for a couple of nickles and dimes just the same... I'm sure that's not universally true or by natural law (heh), but the weekend rule isn't just an affectation. I read somewhere that it has to do with pollution build up in the atmosphere providing large aerosol counts for cloud seeding but the memory of the source is vague. interesting - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I'm not convinced we don't see massive corrections toward one or the other as dominant, either. Also... something rattling around as after thoughts that I can't dim in mind, and that's that big time events almost never occur on a Wednesday. ..ha, 'course, this winter i think the yokes would settle for a couple of nickles and dimes just the same... I'm sure that's not universally true or by natural law (heh), but the weekend rule isn't just an affectation. I read somewhere that it has to do with pollution build up in the atmosphere providing large aerosol counts for cloud seeding but the memory of the source is vague. interesting - Its going to be a hump day humdinger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This season has trained us to be skeptical of favorable solutions at this time range, but I'd be surprised if neither ALB or BTV come out of this with the biggest event of the year. Wouldn't take much... ALB needs what a 2" event and BTV needs like a 5" event to make biggest of season? Could definitely see that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It is, That was more tongue and cheek as it never pans out here as well, I'm sure you would also rather not see another ice storm like 1998 As a weenie I enjoy most weather extremes. As a forester, I view ice storms with exquisite loathing. Late to the 12z party, but gfs (via meteostar) was puke-worthy, with that 24-25 storm drenching my area with 2" of mid-30s RA on NE winds (southerly aloft.) Though the ingredients are much much different than 6 years ago, were that to verify the sensible wx would stink just as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Any ensemble signal for the 22nd?(On phone so can't check for myself). Yeah it had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ash Wednesday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looking at the individual EPS members...man I wish I could lock most of those in, haha. Although it does seem like there's two camps, like weak and east (almost non-events) and there are an awful lot that drill the low right through NYC and mix even up here. Lots of them have some impressive WAA snows for everyone to the north of the low before mix or change over and dryslot. Just huge plume of moisture shooting due north up the coast so you get widespread 6"+ of snow while the low is still down near the Delmarva. Seems like roughly 50% of them track over land somewhere in the northeast from PA/NY into New England (I saw one as far west as the UP of Michigan lol)...while 25% pretty much have a non-event and then another 25% go to town over the Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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