Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Ensembles have shown a sfc reflection on it. I would watch it...obviously no use in getitng too excited. It could pull a GFS only be for NNE too.

I've felt if it did happen it would likely be more north as has been the case all winter, those highs incoming from the Lakes and Plains always have been weaker and slower to arrive than modeled

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well yeah...more accurate than a 168 hour GFS prog though.

I agree completely!!

But, all winter long we've had periods that look very nice, but just can't deliver for the most part, so that is why the GFS is concerning to many...even if it is a week out. And that is because it's following the Tenor of the season thus far for the most part.

If the Euro shows a cutter this afternoon, then the GFS is most likely on to something. If the Euro holds it's ground, that in my opinion would be very nice to see...even at this lead time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to contradict my own winter enthusiasm as of late. 

 

But in all honesty ... while all this model consternation is going on cycle to cycle, the overall characteristic of the synoptic evolution since this last arctic outbreak modified out is frankly looking more and more spring like.  

 

Just the Euro's 00z is an example, and I've been seen this sort of scenario periodically over the last several days ... the model closes off what looks initially like it's a historic monster, but what happens?  It poofs it's self the next day and meanders up the coast as a filling nuisance.  If that doesn't remind you of a spring closed low than ur brain dead. 

 

Also, more and more warm thickness are creeping up in to the SW and along the Gulf.  Along with severe outbreaks down there.

 

Despite all that the overnight tele's are still humping a big time MJO Phase 7, and a pig correlation/constructive interference with the +PNA..   We can certainly get massive cold waves into March; the preceding paragraphs were in notwithstanding... It's why some of the very most special events in history are in spring - you can get these early season modalities toward warmth and then end up with exotic gradients to feast upon.   Or, if the cold doesn't come, ...crocuses.  

 

I think with this latter tele convergence in play, I'm betting the 00z Euro is off on its extinguishing gradients idea.  I also still sided heavily on an event in that time frame.

i think youre correct about an overall spring like trend, maybe we get lucky but outside of seasonally favored areas I would not bet the farm on it

 

why is no one else being so frank??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...