Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah a weak signal...more like Monday. That may be something to follow, but we'll want to see some more OP runs latching onto it the next 24-48 hours. I was bit confused earlier..You posted about the op run.. You said it had an inch or so for most of SNE and S Vt /NH?Or was that Fri nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 There's a mean high pressure over Quebec and eastern Ontario at 180 hours on the Euro ensemble...that's a very good spot. So as long as the track is fairly reasonable, you'll get a good event in New England out of that. It was there on the 12z GEFS as well, and the 12z GFS OP. So we shall see if this is the start of a trend or just a random noise at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I was bit confused earlier..You posted about the op run.. You said it had an inch or so for most of SNE and S Vt /NH? It had maybe an inch for MA/S VT/S NH...not much south of MA border. It was a weak stripe. I wouldn't really consider that a "hit" on the OP model...since the original discussion surrounding that was potentially something more like a solid advisory event. But either way...still early on that one. Some of it will depend what that clipper in Canada does before it...the one that gives NNE some snow on Fri night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Ahh the voice of reason!! Thank you Will for the reality check!! :-) Do you look at weather models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Do you look at weather models? What are you talking about? I was thanking Will for telling what the ensemble showed. And trying to halt the negativity that immediately followed the 18z GFS RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What are you talking about? I was thanking Will for telling what the ensemble showed. And trying to halt the negativity that immediately followed the 18z GFS RUN. No I was just asking if you look at them routinely. Because you asked someone to post the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Oh, I hadn't seen that run, and I had read Dryslots post on "no shortage of qpf" on that run, so I just thought he meant it looked nice. That's all. Sometimes I take a peak, but did not today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's a great signal. No more, no less. That's all that should be said this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It was there on the 12z GEFS as well, and the 12z GFS OP. So we shall see if this is the start of a trend or just a random noise at this lead. I think right now is as good as you'd like to see at D7-8 with the pattern we are presented with...it matches very well what we said about the 2/24-2/25 period before the OP models started on it....that we liked the look for storminess with cold around (due to PNA/EPO) but always be extra cautious of track since we don't have the luxury of an NAO block which tends to "hold" the track in place more. That's what we see here...strong storm signal...available cold...but obviously a plethora of tracks it could take and not all of them are going to make snow weenies happy and not all in the same regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I doubt it will go west like this past one but will likely be too close for comfort for a lot of us......I predict it goes between the cape and mvy from the CSMFS 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I think right now is as good as you'd like to see at D7-8 with the pattern we are presented with...it matches very well what we said about the 2/24-2/25 period before the OP models started on it....that we liked the look for storminess with cold around (due to PNA/EPO) but always be extra cautious of track since we don't have the luxury of an NAO block which tends to "hold" the track in place more. That's what we see here...strong storm signal...available cold...but obviously a plethora of tracks it could take and not all of them are going to make snow weenies happy and not all in the same regions. I still always picture your analogy of a firehose spraying around with no -NAO. Without the block those southern stream storms can go literally anywhere as they come out of the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I think right now is as good as you'd like to see at D7-8 with the pattern we are presented with...it matches very well what we said about the 2/24-2/25 period before the OP models started on it....that we liked the look for storminess with cold around (due to PNA/EPO) but always be extra cautious of track since we don't have the luxury of an NAO block which tends to "hold" the track in place more. That's what we see here...strong storm signal...available cold...but obviously a plethora of tracks it could take and not all of them are going to make snow weenies happy and not all in the same regions. I was just saying that with respect to the macro-level setup, we don't want to see the pv that far south in E Canada as the 18z GFS showed. I don't think that is saying anything out of line or too detailed for the current lead time, and I'm certainly not advocating that the 18z GFS is going to nail anything at 200 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I still always picture your analogy of a firehose spraying around with no -NAO. Without the block those southern stream storms can go literally anywhere as they come out of the deep south. Yep. Think of a +PNA as the arm of a linebacker trying to slow down the running back going up the middle. That would be Scooter HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 18z GEFS look like sht, I guess that was to be expected after the OP did what it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I was just saying that with respect to the macro-level setup, we don't want to see the pv that far south in E Canada as the 18z GFS showed. I don't think that is saying anything out of line or too detailed for the current lead time, and I'm certainly not advocating that the 18z GFS is going to nail anything at 200 hours out. I wasn't contesting your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I wasn't contesting your post. Oh, sorry I thought the weenie comment was directed at me. Cause, you know, I am one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Oh, sorry I thought the weenie comment was directed at me. Cause, you know, I am one. Don't sell yourself short. You're a professional....weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 just remember, this is still 180+ hrs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 just remember, this is still 180+ hrs away Nice catch. Plenty can go wrong, without a good offensive line...we need our skill players to do all the work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Before whatever may happen next week, looks like a nice 2-4/3-5 kind of deal for NNE and possibly CNE Friday night/Saturday morning from a clipper. Should make for an awesome ski day on Saturday with fresh snow and warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Plenty can go wrong, without a good offensive line...we need our skill players to do all the work. Seems like I have seen that movie a couple of different times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Probably fairly straight forward meteorology... if that low decided to wrap up and mid-levels cut off, we would have a problem similar to February 2010. As it is, it stays an open elongated wave. From this position, if that low went gang-busters and H5 went negative cut-off, we'd have a problem. gfs_pr6_slp_t850_neng_33.png lol 2010. Wut? Just throw out basic CCB WCB meteorology cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Its ok man, sometimes the optimistic snow forecasts just don't work out. It is what it is.Nostradumbus?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Euro upgrade would be a nice 6-10 for the SNE crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Not for nuthin, but to me the GFS looks a little like the early March event in 94. 3 to 6 coast then rain while central PA cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Euro upgrade would be a nice 6-10 for the SNE crowdSounds similar to Euro downgrade.Wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Sounds similar to Euro downgrade. Wut it may never snow again.....in SNE , we NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Can I get a Wut Wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Can I get a Wut Wut You get lots of them daily, lol on worrying about day 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Should go over Cape Cod like this one did. Jesus, this place is ridiculous......not sure why everyone whacks off to wrong calls. BFD.....god knows you've missed before. Like the 12th reference I've seen to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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