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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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There's a mean high pressure over Quebec and eastern Ontario at 180 hours on the Euro ensemble...that's a very good spot. So as long as the track is fairly reasonable, you'll get a good event in New England out of that.

 

 

Of course, lest we forget that the whole friggin' threat is 7+ days out...so synoptics can change and the actual track is anyone's guess right now. Maybe it goes to Bermuda...or Buffalo.

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There's a mean high pressure over Quebec and eastern Ontario at 180 hours on the Euro ensemble...that's a very good spot. So as long as the track is fairly reasonable, you'll get a good event in New England out of that.

 

 

Of course, lest we forget that the whole friggin' threat is 7+ days out...so synoptics can change and the actual track is anyone's guess right now. Maybe it goes to Bermuda...or Buffalo.

Was there any sign on the EPS today of that Sunday night deal?

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???? new math?

 

Probably fairly straight forward meteorology... if that low decided to wrap up and mid-levels cut off, we would have a problem similar to February 2010.  As it is, it stays an open elongated wave. 

 

From this position, if that low went gang-busters and H5 went negative cut-off, we'd have a problem.

 

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There's a mean high pressure over Quebec and eastern Ontario at 180 hours on the Euro ensemble...that's a very good spot. So as long as the track is fairly reasonable, you'll get a good event in New England out of that.

 

 

Of course, lest we forget that the whole friggin' threat is 7+ days out...so synoptics can change and the actual track is anyone's guess right now. Maybe it goes to Bermuda...or Buffalo.

Ahh the voice of reason!! Thank you Will for the reality check!! :-)

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