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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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  On 2/16/2016 at 10:50 PM, JC-CT said:

Didn't you just post the 12z Euro ensembles showing strong inland track clustering?

We went from a great look and a lot of enthusiasm yesterday and earlier today to the king and it's EPS bringing rains back to coastal maine

Not going to rule out snow..but not good signals today overall.

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There's a mean high pressure over Quebec and eastern Ontario at 180 hours on the Euro ensemble...that's a very good spot. So as long as the track is fairly reasonable, you'll get a good event in New England out of that.

 

 

Of course, lest we forget that the whole friggin' threat is 7+ days out...so synoptics can change and the actual track is anyone's guess right now. Maybe it goes to Bermuda...or Buffalo.

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  On 2/16/2016 at 10:59 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There's a mean high pressure over Quebec and eastern Ontario at 180 hours on the Euro ensemble...that's a very good spot. So as long as the track is fairly reasonable, you'll get a good event in New England out of that.

 

 

Of course, lest we forget that the whole friggin' threat is 7+ days out...so synoptics can change and the actual track is anyone's guess right now. Maybe it goes to Bermuda...or Buffalo.

Was there any sign on the EPS today of that Sunday night deal?

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  On 2/16/2016 at 10:54 PM, Ginx snewx said:

???? new math?

 

Probably fairly straight forward meteorology... if that low decided to wrap up and mid-levels cut off, we would have a problem similar to February 2010.  As it is, it stays an open elongated wave. 

 

From this position, if that low went gang-busters and H5 went negative cut-off, we'd have a problem.

 

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  On 2/16/2016 at 11:00 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Was there any sign on the EPS today of that Sunday night deal?

 

Yeah a weak signal...more like Monday. That may be something to follow, but we'll want to see some more OP runs latching onto it the next 24-48 hours.

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  On 2/16/2016 at 10:59 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There's a mean high pressure over Quebec and eastern Ontario at 180 hours on the Euro ensemble...that's a very good spot. So as long as the track is fairly reasonable, you'll get a good event in New England out of that.

 

 

Of course, lest we forget that the whole friggin' threat is 7+ days out...so synoptics can change and the actual track is anyone's guess right now. Maybe it goes to Bermuda...or Buffalo.

Ahh the voice of reason!! Thank you Will for the reality check!! :-)

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