ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Was 2/8/14 the system that disappeared inside 4 days? Not sure it was that close to the event IIRC...but yeah, either way it was huge at like D7-8 on the ensembles...still maybe there around D5-6 and then gone around 108-120. Maybe it got closer, but I remember we were discussing the ensembles heavily and the setup was really nice. The thing is, it was sandwiched between the Feb 5-6 and Feb 13 storms...so it didn't "feel" like a huge loss in hindsight when it disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Man, I'm not sure I've seen the ensembles that emphatic about a storm this far out. Start at 12" and we can adjust up from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Any signal on the ENS for the Sunday night deal some modeling has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Uh-oh EPS Clusters split into 3 camps for Tue/Wed storm: 2 amped and warm, 1 suppressed and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Uh-oh EPS Clusters split into 3 camps for Tue/Wed storm: 2 amped and warm, 1 suppressed and cold. It was pretty obvious on the GEFS and GEPS too. And shouldn't you be referencing your source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It was pretty obvious on the GEFS and GEPS too. And shouldn't you be referencing your source? Danny Leonard/WSI/Scooter's boss. That's not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 The idea of the slow mover isn't really just endemic to the EPS though - The operational runs are showing a similar deceleration tendency - tho they do it for different reasons. However, the net appeal is a slow-ish system. ...just fwiw... That GGEM solution would take some 72 hours probably to completely fulfill it's impact profile. Obviously ...none of this is deterministic at this time, but, sometimes when big events are out there in the physics of the system, they show up and stick real early. This/that is consistent with very large intense systems going back in time. 1993 was locked and loaded by D9, ...and that was by 1993 modeling standards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Danny Leonard/WSI/Scooter's boss. That's not a good sign It's still a long way out. I'm sure there are some hits in there too. But this is far from a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Danny Leonard/WSI/Scooter's boss. That's not a good sign Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wut? yauh, wut iz he tawking abowt? onsombill meen iz tha wae to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Uh-oh EPS Clusters split into 3 camps for Tue/Wed storm: 2 amped and warm, 1 suppressed and cold. Oh well, SNE winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Was 2/8/14 the system that disappeared inside 4 days? No, that was in March(There were a couple of them actually and then a massive ocean storm that was just OTS to end that wreck of a month(-4.6 with .8" of snow at BDR, BOS wasn't much better at -4.5 and 2.5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 No, that was in March(There were a couple of them actually and then a massive ocean storm that was just OTS to end that wreck of a month(-4.6 with .8" of snow at BDR, BOS wasn't much better at -4.5 and 2.5"). I know those. I remember that Feb storm Will spoke of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 While eyewall is definitely just speaking from pure emotions at this point (betting the streak has been the winning hand lately though), I feel like we've heard a good deal of long lead times when folks have said "I think this one gets everyone" or "this is where NNE catches up" or whatever. Not aimed at you, but even this past system some folks were convinced we were getting a snow bomb up here like 3-4 days ago. Be curious to look at those GFS snow maps Ginxy saved a week ago and see what happened. It has a boy who cried wolf ring to it after a while, haha (again not aimed at you or anyone in general). Even in past couple winters the "I think its the deeper interior's time with this one" has been uttered a lot more than reality. Though I agree with you we probably have as good a shot as any other time this season. That is the exact phrase i referenced when writing my blog post. I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The idea of the slow mover isn't really just endemic to the EPS though - The operational runs are showing a similar deceleration tendency - tho they do it for different reasons. However, the net appeal is a slow-ish system. ...just fwiw... That GGEM solution would take some 72 hours probably to completely fulfill it's impact profile. Obviously ...none of this is deterministic at this time, but, sometimes when big events are out there in the physics of the system, they show up and stick real early. This/that is consistent with very large intense systems going back in time. 1993 was locked and loaded by D9, ...and that was by 1993 modeling standards! This is why I felt confident that the blizzard in January would stick, though unfortunately it slipped south under the scooter streak. Hopefully this one works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 yauh, wut iz he tawking abowt? onsombill meen iz tha wae to go. Wurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 18z GFS looks like the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Well the GFS is no longer OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 18z GFS qpf field runs the whole east coast.......lol, No qpf worries with that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Somewhere between 12z and 18z would be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Somewhere between 12z and 18z would be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Gfs over the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Could someone post the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Could someone post the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Could someone post the 18z GFS? Days and days of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Oh ok. Thought it showed something decent. Disregard!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 God NCEP is awful...taken like 15 minutes to load one frame of the 18z GFS, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 18z GFS looks like the JMA now thats a 80's special, gonna snow where it hasn't snowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 God NCEP is awful...taken like 15 minutes to load one frame of the 18z GFS, haha. why does anyone use NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 That is so warm. Low is east of the Delmarva and it's already raining into Bangor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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