RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Is the NW trend still a concern? Anything can trend this far out. Of course there will be folks who say no way this cuts or no way it's ots....but cooler heads know anything on table at d8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Several huggers in recent years had smallish precip shields too...we get a track over the Cape and BOS is still getting snow. At any rate, this is about the most I've seen a 192 hour solution analyzed on here. The general prospects for some type of storm though in that period within a couple hundred miles of SE New England seems fairly high. Haha this winter has left a lot to be desired... not a ton of real-time threats to analyze so we dig deep on the fantasy storms . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Is the NW trend still a concern? There's also a concern that no storm forms at all or affects us in anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 i don't think there is anything pasty about that solution anyway - Neither do I...not with that arctic high to the NW. Maybe pasty for a time before the flip right on the coast, but we're talking a transitory period of that. Not a long duration paste job. Anyone west of the CF in that type of setup is like 17-22F blown powder. (to perhaps 22F sleet pellets if the mid-levels intrude for a time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'd rather play with fire and dryslut potential then watch cape cod rank another snowstorm into its top 5 while I collect sand scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 So when does the snow start for the big one next week? Late afternoon rush? j/k Just happy to see this on all the suites this afternoon. Like Will said, confidence is fairly high that there will be a storm within 200 miles of the NE coast later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Just happy to see this on all the suites this afternoon. Like Will said, confidence is fairly high that there will be a storm within 200 miles of the NE coast later next week. The GFS was about 400-500 miles off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Que the concerned CP folks. Why should we be concerned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'd rather play with fire and dryslut potential then watch cape cod rank another snowstorm into its top 5 while I collect sand scraps. You know you'd love to see James pull off another Blizz this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Neither do I...not with that arctic high to the NW. Maybe pasty for a time before the flip right on the coast, but we're talking a transitory period of that. Not a long duration paste job. Anyone west of the CF in that type of setup is like 17-22F blown powder. (to perhaps 22F sleet pellets if the mid-levels intrude for a time) I know - really it comes down to which direction the vectors are pointing ...which in turn means the cold air is 'pushing' literally. think back to 2003, December... that storm was 19 F in Winchester and 32 at the Born Bridge, and 55 on the Cape ... with a fresh clean arctic dome sitting NW of Maine. .. if that +PP is NW of you, it squeezes the cold and CF very tightly to the water's edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Why should we be concerned? You, us, we...shouldnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Don't worry the system at 8 days out will find a way to fail somehow, perhaps as another HV runner. Bet the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Only 192 hrs for it to move over I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'd rather play with fire and dryslut potential then watch cape cod rank another snowstorm into its top 5 while I collect sand scraps. same here, i think id be hanging from the rafters should that happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Pretty awesome signal on the euro ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Pretty awesome signal on the euro ensemble. Man, I'm not sure I've seen the ensembles that emphatic about a storm this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Don't worry the system at 8 days out will find a way to fail somehow, perhaps as another HV runner. Bet the streak. I think many get smoked....and I don't mean cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Man, I'm not sure I've seen the ensembles that emphatic about a storm this far out. Yeah no kidding. Hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Don't worry the system at 8 days out will find a way to fail somehow, perhaps as another HV runner. Bet the streak. This one ended being a Buffalo runner-way west of where anyone thought just 2-3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah no kidding. Hopefully it works out. There's literally a sfc low near the BM for like 48 straight hours on the ensemble mean...it's probably not sure of timing and which shortwave to focus on, but the initial punch north from the gulf is really powerful between about 168-204. There's certainly more storminess showing up later than that...another signal around Feb 28-29 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 There's literally a sfc low near the BM for like 48 straight hours on the ensemble mean...it's probably not sure of timing and which shortwave to focus on, but the initial punch north from the gulf is really powerful between about 168-204. There's certainly more storminess showing up later than that...another signal around Feb 28-29 too. I had a nice private weenie moment about GEFS p15 this afternoon for the 28-29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Man, I'm not sure I've seen the ensembles that emphatic about a storm this far out. They had this past one pretty much nailed at 7 days out. A week ago the EPS was drawing the low up over ALB and never really changed. I feel like they've been onto some long lead systems this year that have both worked out and not worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Only 192 hrs for it to move over I-81.What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I think many get smoked....and I don't mean cirrus. While eyewall is definitely just speaking from pure emotions at this point (betting the streak has been the winning hand lately though), I feel like we've heard a good deal of long lead times when folks have said "I think this one gets everyone" or "this is where NNE catches up" or whatever. Not aimed at you, but even this past system some folks were convinced we were getting a snow bomb up here like 3-4 days ago. Be curious to look at those GFS snow maps Ginxy saved a week ago and see what happened. It has a boy who cried wolf ring to it after a while, haha (again not aimed at you or anyone in general). Even in past couple winters the "I think its the deeper interior's time with this one" has been uttered a lot more than reality. Though I agree with you we probably have as good a shot as any other time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 They had this past one pretty much nailed at 7 days out. A week ago the EPS was drawing the low up over ALB and never really changed. I feel like they've been onto some long lead systems this year that have both worked out and not worked out. The signal was weaker though on this past one vs the next one even though the mean was pretty good with the track...like the mean qpf was weaker and the spread was more. Today's run has extremely high support for a system coming out of the gulf around D7. But regardless, things can obviously change. I've seen ensembles be excited about a D7 system and it turns to crap...Feb 8, 2014 comes to mind. We had a big signal on that and it turned into nothing...but it was quickly forgotten in that active snow month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 DT is excited about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The signal was weaker though on this past one vs the next one even though the mean was pretty good with the track...like the mean qpf was weaker and the spread was more. Today's run has extremely high support for a system coming out of the gulf around D7. But regardless, things can obviously change. I've seen ensembles be excited about a D7 system and it turns to crap...Feb 8, 2014 comes to mind. We had a big signal on that and it turned into nothing...but it was quickly forgotten in that active snow month. Yeah very true. I feel like the Ensembles have had a good amount of long lead signals this winter that both worked out and didn't work out. As always, that's much more important though than seeing it on the Operationals...this is total ensemble time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 DT is excited about it Of course he is, How about Forky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Was 2/8/14 the system that disappeared inside 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Was 2/8/14 the system that disappeared inside 4 days? I think I actually remember that. It just went poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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