Jason215 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Guys, when we say cutter, do you mean the ski resorts in the Catskills, DACKS, Berks and Greens will all change over to freezing rain/rain? I think cutter is synonymous with Apps runner which means all ski resorts change over. I'm not concerned about a little sleet. Thanks, Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Doesn't look like any chance of a snow event until after the 24th. I just hope this winter ends quick and painless. Bring the warm tempsthis is so wrong but coming from a guy who is already AN for the winter we ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 We've had some very strong inside runners with a +NAO and -PNA. This is a storm where the LLJ is very strong thanks to a very strong horizontal thermal gradient. You don't need a 970 low to produce a 90kt jet at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Guys, when we say cutter, do you mean the ski resorts in the Catskills, DACKS, Berks and Greens will all change over to freezing rain/rain? I think cutter is synonymous with Apps runner which means all ski resorts change over. I'm not concerned about a little sleet. Thanks, Jason Dacks have best shot, N greens will have wrap around / upslope snow after low passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 We've had some very strong inside runners with a +NAO and -PNA. This is a storm where the LLJ is very strong thanks to a very strong horizontal thermal gradient. You don't need a 970 low to produce a 90kt jet at 850. I won't deny that. But I'm looking at where this is modeled now, relative to where the teleconnections are trending. There's a difference...i.e. if this was currently modeled to run through Detroit, I'd write it off as a cutter... This also doesn't run north until its near the east coast, which a +NAO is good at inhibiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Doesn't look like any chance of a snow event until after the 24th. I just hope this winter ends quick and painless. Bring the warm temps Yea, bring on warm temps.... Cuz the pain of a historic 2ft snowstorm weighs heavily on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yea, bring on warm temps.... Cuz the pain of a historic 2ft snowstorm weighs heavily on you.he follows Forky around like a puppy to his master. Like clockwork. There is a threat on the board in the 8-10 day period. The warmer temps he refers to are associated with the cutter, then what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I won't deny that. But I'm looking at where this is modeled now, relative to where the teleconnections are trending. There's a difference...i.e. if this was currently modeled to run through Detroit, I'd write it off as a cutter... This also doesn't run north until its near the east coast, which a +NAO is good at inhibiting... It is certainly possible it may end up a bit east of where models have it now. However, the S-N track just furnaces so much of New England. I'm sure the interior, especially nrn ORH county, Berks into NNE may get ice after any snow, but it's such a sh*t track. The PV this weekend just flies north and allows that s/w to really dig and pump up heights over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It is certainly possible it may end up a bit east of where models have it now. However, the S-N track just furnaces so much of New England. I'm sure the interior, especially nrn ORH county, Berks into NNE may get ice after any snow, but it's such a sh*t track. The PV this weekend just flies north and allows that s/w to really dig and pump up heights over the east. Yea we'll see. But that level of warmth is a function of an intense system, generating signficant WAA out ahead of it. The track I laid out above implies a much weaker system than is currently modeled. That's not to say many areas in the NE will still be too warm, however... I'll put it this way--if this system doesn't begin trending south, east and weaker over time, by tomorrow, I'll be quite surprised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yea we'll see. But that level of warmth is a function of an intense system, generating signficant WAA out ahead of it. The track I laid out above implies a much weaker system than is currently modeled. That's not to say many areas in the NE will still be too warm, however... I'll put it this way--if this system doesn't begin trending south, east and weaker over time, by tomorrow, I'll be quite surprised... Hopefully it's weaker and further east. The NNE resorts would get decimated on some of these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 he follows Forky around like a puppy to his master. Like clockwork. There is a threat on the board in the 8-10 day period. The warmer temps he refers to are associated with the cutter, then what?Odd creatures. I thought this winter would be active but playing the thermal line..looks like the case coming up. Won't be snowpack type stuff but I'll take my chances with my hand over the burning stove. I'll prob burn the hair off my arm and melt my skin in the process, but fok it...we have nothing to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just looking at things for the first time. All I can do is shake my head and laugh. Good news is that we're only 9.5 months away from the start of met winter. Maybe next year will be legit. 5.7/-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Difficult to say with much detail--my only confidence is in saying this likely isn't a cutter.. But my gut says I'd take the 850 mb low at hr 108 on the 18z GFS and slide that ENE/NE, and maintain it as an intense open wave, going over NJ/LI, and continue that trajectory to near Cape Cod. Would mean a snowier/colder solution for many folks in the interior and NNE. Hope you're right man, My feeling has been a CC track with snow even for coast, to ice inland then cold rain. But the worry is there for a screamer over HRV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 playing with grandkids and pups has to be more fun than Ray playing with his man beast,perhaps you could share your opinion from personal experience, lol On first glance I thought it said man breasts I really need reading glasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yea we'll see. But that level of warmth is a function of an intense system, generating signficant WAA out ahead of it. The track I laid out above implies a much weaker system than is currently modeled. That's not to say many areas in the NE will still be too warm, however... I'll put it this way--if this system doesn't begin trending south, east and weaker over time, by tomorrow, I'll be quite surprised... You shouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Dacks have best shot, N greens will have wrap around / upslope snow after low passes. At least this system occurs early in the week which gives me enough time to plan on where to go skiing the weekend of Feb 20th. I am in disbelief that I actually have recieved more snow here on LI than many/most ski resorts from Killington south. Unheard of pushing mid-Feb! I hope this trends East. I would easily sacrifice a coastal hugger/rainer IMBY for my NNE brethren and the ski resorts. The only thing worse than a Wiff is the dreaded Apps Runner. -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Projecting the Nam out another day beyond 84 hrs, seems like the storm would be more east. The PV seems to hang around longer in Quebec perhaps keeping any storm further south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just looking at things for the first time. All I can do is shake my head and laugh. Good news is that we're only 9.5 months away from the start of met winter. Maybe next year will be legit. 5.7/-5 Well, if there is any significant shift E in the models the next few days we (especially you), would have the best shot in SNE of seeing accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Good luck guys. I'll be at 12N so no snow for me next week. I'm getting a swfe vibe but we'll see. I like the look on the eps when I return in 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Good luck guys. I'll be at 12N so no snow for me next week. I'm getting a swfe vibe but we'll see. I like the look on the eps when I return in 8 days. Safe travels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Basically we can't win up here. If it is initially modeled as a favorable storm track for VT this winter it ends up a cutter. The other option is it hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Basically we can't win up here. If it is initially modeled as a favorable storm track for VT this winter it ends up a cutter. The other option is it hits the coast. Yeah South coast, Lets be specific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah South coast, Lets be specificlove that polar low in the GOM modeled, cool feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 FYI RGEM gets the Cape pretty good 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 FYI RGEM gets the Cape pretty good 3-5GFS does too,Cape winter. PVC near WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 0z GFS a little east of the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 0z GFS a little east of the 18z runBar Harbah yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Bar Harbah yikes Fire hose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 976 low split between NH/VT.. I guess is east of previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS does too,Cape winter. PVC near WSW This run came a lot further east than 18z. Low goes just west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.