mreaves Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I haven't rode in years, however I've never seen a trail report this sad going into pres day weekend.. http://vtvast.org/trail-conditions-report.html Edit: this is dated 2/5, but I don't think its changed all that much I'm on the BoD of VAST and yes, it is that bad. My home club bought a new groomer this year and it hasn't rolled once so far. I would venture a guess that 80% of the trails in New England are not rideable right now and that may actually be generous. My 11 year old son son was amusing himself riding around our yard but even that got wiped out last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It's sad when there's sledding in N. Connecticut, but not in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm on the BoD of VAST and yes, it is that bad. My home club bought a new groomer this year and it hasn't rolled once so far. I would venture a guess that 80% of the trails in New England are not rideable right now and that may actually be generous. My 11 year old son son was amusing himself riding around our yard but even that got wiped out last week. Sad...some people don't realize how much of an impact a year like this has on VT's economy. I'm sure VAST enrollment this year is close to an all time low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It's sad when there's sledding in N. Connecticut, but not in NNE. RI Saturday, before the 10" we got Monday http://media5002.dropshots.com/photos/245321/20160206/132155.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If it cuts to cleveland, would that leave the baroclinicity off the coast intact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I have no doubt it will be devastating cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NAM jumps 100-150 miles east at first east of NC to the convection that develops on the southeast side of the low, I think this storm will be 100-150 miles further northwest, putting SNE especially from Plymouth to Barnstable counties in the heaviest snows. This is for the Saturday clipper. Also the cutter on Tuesday/Wednesday is a major wind concern, perhaps catastrophic winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NAM jumps 100-150 miles east at first east of NC to the convection that develops on the southeast side of the low It follows the upper level trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Heavy flurries? I don't see anything suggesting more than a coating to an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Lets move the index finger SW shall we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Lets move the index finger SW shall we NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f57.png Since when do index fingers have balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Since when do index fingers have balls I wasn't going there, It could be the dogs tail as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No it doesn't follow the upper level energy, it jumps east, the upper level energy would suggest it moves northeastward off the coast of NC, not East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No it doesn't follow the upper level energy, it jumps east, the upper level energy would suggest it moves northeastward off the coast of NC, not East. It does move northeastward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 That is such a hideous solution for ski country in NNE. It would turn a hideous winter into a hellish nightmare. Yes .... but what are your feelings on the matter ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yes JC the upper level energy moves northeastward, look at the surface maps, the surface low jumps some 100-140 miles eastward towards the deeper convection, instead of moving northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 There's still a decent amount of winter left and this storm hasn't happened yet. But this is the model thread where we describe model solutions....at least when we can contain the rest of the off topic drivel. The Euro def went 1980s on us that run. That said, I get that you've been cliff-diving for the better part of 3 years...it's been a rough stretch there relative to the rest of the region. It's been a tough stretch here for sure but the entire Pioneer Valley got a 20"+ storm in Feb 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Tremendous spread on the EPS today. Op tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yes JC the upper level energy moves northeastward, look at the surface maps, the surface low jumps some 100-140 miles eastward towards the deeper convection, instead of moving northeastward. Two things. First: Second: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Tremendous spread on the EPS today. Op tossed Ensembles are supposed to have spread, otherwise they are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ensembles are supposed to have spread, otherwise they are useless.wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 wut? Ensembles are useless without spread. I misread his original post. I thought he was tossing the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The level of spread in the ensembles tells us how confident we are of a solution....the EC ensembles have pretty huge spread for next week's storm. Not a big surprise though given how we have seen the OP runs shift a lot from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The level of spread in the ensembles tells us how confident we are of a solution....the EC ensembles have pretty huge spread for next week's storm. Not a big surprise though given how we have seen the OP runs shift a lot from run to run. Right, I thought he was tossing the ensembles (or the mean which is still a cutter track). It was totally my bad. It doesn't mean we "toss" the OP as a possible solution, it means that it is within the envelope of solutions that also include a good deal of other possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Anyone want to give the goalposts on the ensemble spread? Just for curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Anyone want to give the goalposts on the ensemble spread? Just for curiosity. About KBUF to 40/70 So the point being..anyone locking in the Euro op track and 50's and rain to Quebec City 5 days out is heavily drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 About KBUF to 40/70 So the point being..anyone locking in the Euro op track and 50's and rain to Quebec City 5 days out is heavily drunk Thanks yeah pretty decent spread there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Wind chill watches up for everyone. Congrats to all. They word it life threatening cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 About KBUF to 40/70 So the point being..anyone locking in the Euro op track and 50's and rain to Quebec City 5 days out is heavily drunk The mean cuts through NY state. Without seeing the individuals I can make a pretty good guess which side of the spectrum most of them are on. It isn't 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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