dryslot Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No qpf worries for WNE on that run. Should place a dent in the drought............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This looks like a big time wind signal with strong high to the east and low to west Post the next frame too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Post the next frame too Upslope snow for resorts..but you wonder if the rains to Quebec City will just shut them down first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No qpf worries for WNE on that run. Awful. Like someone said earlier...Get that thing further west...Like Ohio and points west type sh*t. If we can just get to the slim possibility of showers to overcast it would be much appreciated. Thanks in advance for your understanding and support. This looks like a big time wind signal with strong high to the east and low to west lol. When all else fails, pray for 50's and wind in February. Absolutely depressing set up, and the wind can't save it from being anything more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NAM produces ocean storm with hurricane force winds over the ocean once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NAM produces ocean storm with hurricane force winds over the ocean once again Hey isn't that where Cape Cod is located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Awful. Like someone said earlier...Get that thing further west...Like Ohio and points west type sh*t. If we can just get to the slim possibility of showers to overcast it would be much appreciated. Thanks in advance for your understanding and support. lol. When all else fails, pray for 50's and wind in February. Absolutely depressing set up, and the wind can't save it from being anything more than that. If we could get some big time winds of 60-70 mph with lots of tree damage etc..it would ease the pain greatly for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If we could get some big time winds of 60-70 mph with lots of tree damage etc..it would ease the pain greatly for me GFS did appear to show gusts of that magnitude verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS would lead to hurricane force wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 What does the CMC and UKMET models show for the Saturday clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That's weird...someone in Tolland said HV runners don't happen. At this point, I am just hoping its warm enough to clear the ground.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That's weird...someone in Tolland said HV runners don't happen. At this point, I am just hoping its warm enough to clear the ground.... Still think it ends up into CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still think it ends up into CC Based on what? Each run has been more and more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Based on what? Each run has been more and more amped Climo. Its day 6...current consensus is irrelevant, aside from betting strongly against a big snow event. Not impossible, maybe this is the one that goes over BTV, but I'll usually bet aqainst that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Based on what? Each run has been more and more amped It's 5 days out..The ensemble mean takes it into Se Ne . We typically see globals over trend and then a trend back the other way. SST's are warm. That's why I favor a secondary of some type with primary to our west. Your scenario favors 55-60 and mine favors 35-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 20 miles east or west could mean 55 or 35. It's meaningless to pin down. The overall story is a lousy rain event for now..at least in a good chunk of SNE and perhaps NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think what we would want to see is the first shortwave to dive down the ridge outrace the second, which is the one that the models currently are blowing up, and create its own storm. I'm not sure how that would happen with the southern jet as modeled though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If it's not going to deliver to the ski areas, I'd rather it keep ticking west at this point. the GFS keeps SE mass relatively less wet than folks in WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think what we would want to see is the first shortwave to dive down the ridge outrace the second, which is the one that the models currently are blowing up, and create its own storm. I'm not sure how that would happen with the southern jet as modeled though. About 48 hours ago or more, the models sort of had the front runner wave be the focus...it was weak, but it produced light overrunning snows and it prevented the one behind it from getting amped up. Doesn't look like we'll go back to that solution, but even if the front runner is a little stronger between now and next week, it might be enough to push everything a bit east so we're not getting a HV runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro sort of grazes CC with the inv trough saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Damn, that's quite a storm on the 12z GFS.. I hit 50 at the height of it and still manage snow on both the front and back end with temps in the teens and a potentially damaging wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS has a very strong LLJ at 925. Probably would be an inversion as usual. If it's raining 0.2"/hr with 925 winds 70+, how long would an inversion last? I'd think even my mega-CAD location would scour pretty quickly. One "good" thing is that ice jam flooding shouldn't be a huge problem, due to a lack of (much) ice. The Sandy has open water in some slack-water locations that usually stay ice-covered from mid-Dec into late March. Kennebec ice caught in AUG last night, for the 3rd time; doubt this one will last any longer than the first two. Guys who run the smelt camps must be having a grand time. Found only 10" ice on Flying Pond in Vienna/Mt. Vernon Saturday, about half what is the usual for early Feb. Last year at this time I'm not sure my hand auger would've reached liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 None of the threats that Steve spoke of displayed today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Based on the trough position at 96h vs the 00z run, my guess is the Euro will be a mega-amped cutter into NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Euro is really amped down south, I don't think anyone is going to like the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Euro is really amped down south, I don't think anyone is going to like the outcome Actually if it's really amped and west, it might actually limit the rainfall amounts. Gotta look at the silver lining if there is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Congrats Cleveland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 euro is close the shades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 euro is close the shades Man, that's ugly. Not a surprise but it would be nice if we could pull out a decent setup for N VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Actually if it's really amped and west, it might actually limit the rainfall amounts. Gotta look at the silver lining if there is one. There would be a real good silver lining if it went over the Dakotas.lol, Its going to be pretty far west though this run, Probably as far west as we have seen so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.