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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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Stop calling the air mass two days before the storm antecedent. It's the position and strength of the high pressure JUST prior to the storm ariving and how it sets up not how cold the 850's are two days earlier.

 

Given how intense the cold is, it may be a little more stubborn to retreat (esp low levels) than models want to...but in the end, it will not be nearly enough unless the high is built back to the west more than guidance currently shows. Having a high centered over the Flemish Cap is kind of counter productive.

 

 

Even if it was sitting over Nova Scotia, it would be a lot more helpful.

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Given how intense the cold is, it may be a little more stubborn to retreat (esp low levels) than models want to...but in the end, it will not be nearly enough unless the high is built back to the west more than guidance currently shows. Having a high centered over the Flemish Cap is kind of counter productive.

 

 

Even if it was sitting over Nova Scotia, it would be a lot more helpful.

Yea, all it serves to do is intensify WAA by accentuating se flow...better off if it bolted faster.

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Yea, all it serves to do is intensify WAA by accentuating se flow...better off if it bolted faster.

3 consecutive runs the GFS has strengthened HP N of the border as an extension of the 1043 . Something to watch as that will lock in cold longer. Will be interesting to watch the runs come in. Hopefully as we are all told over and over people understand its foolish to lock in solutions 5 to 6 days out.
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3 consecutive runs the GFS has strengthened HP N of the border as an extension of the 1043 . Something to watch as that will lock in cold longer. Will be interesting to watch the runs come in. Hopefully as we are all told over and over people understand its foolish to lock in solutions 5 to 6 days out.

 

A front ender would certainly be more likely if we can trend the high extension to the west stronger and stronger.

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3 consecutive runs the GFS has strengthened HP N of the border as an extension of the 1043 . Something to watch as that will lock in cold longer. Will be interesting to watch the runs come in. Hopefully as we are all told over and over people understand its foolish to lock in solutions 5 to 6 days out.

Will said that trend reversed on the 06z run.

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in any event ... that system next week is intensely dynamic...  sick DPVA turning the corner and coming up the coast with impressive negative tilt will really maximize UVM ...

 

anywhere within even +2 C at 850 mb could flip over to giant wet snow balls with that look..  

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I could have sworn that you had responded to Ginx with "What 00z giveth, 06z taketh away"...but I can't find it now.

 

No that wasn't me...the track on 06z was a bit west of 00z so it was worse for places like the Berkshires up through N NH...but the high itself actually hung back better on 06z.

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No that wasn't me...the track on 06z was a bit west of 00z so it was worse for places like the Berkshires up through N NH...but the high itself actually hung back better on 06z.

My mistake.

 

Nice...trend continues, then.

 

I realize it won't change much unless it grows dramatic, but each tic could help.

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Models have been focused there, They look to get fire hosed by the Norlun

 

Then get a different kind of firehose a few days later.  GFS showed 850 wind from the south at 100+ mph from EPO to AUG, even 75+ at RUM.  Might be enough to scour out the cold, followed by 2"+ rain.  Most disastrous-looking run I've seen since the run-up to the Christmas torch.

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Then get a different kind of firehose a few days later.  GFS showed 850 wind from the south at 100+ mph from EPO to AUG, even 75+ at RUM.  Might be enough to scour out the cold, followed by 2"+ rain.  Most disastrous-looking run I've seen since the run-up to the Christmas torch.

 

That is the worst possible low track for us just inland from the coast and north once the cold gets eroded

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My mistake.

 

Nice...trend continues, then.

 

I realize it won't change much unless it grows dramatic, but each tic could help.

 

 

This is solely a stat-padder exercise to me...hoping for a miracle double digit event out of this and avoiding rain will be tough. But I'll take a stat padder over nothing.

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