ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Stop calling the air mass two days before the storm antecedent. It's the position and strength of the high pressure JUST prior to the storm ariving and how it sets up not how cold the 850's are two days earlier. Given how intense the cold is, it may be a little more stubborn to retreat (esp low levels) than models want to...but in the end, it will not be nearly enough unless the high is built back to the west more than guidance currently shows. Having a high centered over the Flemish Cap is kind of counter productive. Even if it was sitting over Nova Scotia, it would be a lot more helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Desperado. You aren't all pumped up for ALB record 850 temps?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yup. Current forecast is 38 with a mix to rain.So how would that wipeout the snow pack like you were saying earlier to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If we had blocking here, this would be one for the annals... Instead, Its one for the anal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Given how intense the cold is, it may be a little more stubborn to retreat (esp low levels) than models want to...but in the end, it will not be nearly enough unless the high is built back to the west more than guidance currently shows. Having a high centered over the Flemish Cap is kind of counter productive. Even if it was sitting over Nova Scotia, it would be a lot more helpful. Yea, all it serves to do is intensify WAA by accentuating se flow...better off if it bolted faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Instead, Its one for the anal Will's cousin, Dave Schwartz, just slammed his lap top shut. I've had enough of this, "my friend", as he points at you to herald in the commercial break... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 High over NS would be especially good for a cold tuck in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Will's cousin, Dave Schwartz, just slammed his lap top shut. I've had enough of this, "my friend", as he points at you to herald in the commercial break... Hes very sick with cancer . Hopefully a full recovery awaits. Good guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Will's cousin, Dave Schwartz, just slammed his lap top shut. I've had enough of this, "my friend", as he points at you to herald in the commercial break... lol, South winds will roast this area fairly quickly with no high to the north and a track of the slp over BTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yea, all it serves to do is intensify WAA by accentuating se flow...better off if it bolted faster.3 consecutive runs the GFS has strengthened HP N of the border as an extension of the 1043 . Something to watch as that will lock in cold longer. Will be interesting to watch the runs come in. Hopefully as we are all told over and over people understand its foolish to lock in solutions 5 to 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hes very sick with cancer . Hopefully a full recovery awaits. Good guy Really? How do you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Really? How do you know? national news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 3 consecutive runs the GFS has strengthened HP N of the border as an extension of the 1043 . Something to watch as that will lock in cold longer. Will be interesting to watch the runs come in. Hopefully as we are all told over and over people understand its foolish to lock in solutions 5 to 6 days out. A front ender would certainly be more likely if we can trend the high extension to the west stronger and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 3 consecutive runs the GFS has strengthened HP N of the border as an extension of the 1043 . Something to watch as that will lock in cold longer. Will be interesting to watch the runs come in. Hopefully as we are all told over and over people understand its foolish to lock in solutions 5 to 6 days out. Will said that trend reversed on the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 national news Man....link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Will said that trend reversed on the 06z run. Where did I say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 in any event ... that system next week is intensely dynamic... sick DPVA turning the corner and coming up the coast with impressive negative tilt will really maximize UVM ... anywhere within even +2 C at 850 mb could flip over to giant wet snow balls with that look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 A lot of the models started as snow. That is very reasonable to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Where did I say that? I could have sworn that you had responded to Ginx with "What 00z giveth, 06z taketh away"...but I can't find it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I could have sworn that you had responded to Ginx with "What 00z giveth, 06z taketh away"...but I can't find it now. No that wasn't me...the track on 06z was a bit west of 00z so it was worse for places like the Berkshires up through N NH...but the high itself actually hung back better on 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 lol at Ray writing off hours 385 through 455 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No that wasn't me...the track on 06z was a bit west of 00z so it was worse for places like the Berkshires up through N NH...but the high itself actually hung back better on 06z. My mistake. Nice...trend continues, then. I realize it won't change much unless it grows dramatic, but each tic could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Models have been focused there, They look to get fire hosed by the Norlun Then get a different kind of firehose a few days later. GFS showed 850 wind from the south at 100+ mph from EPO to AUG, even 75+ at RUM. Might be enough to scour out the cold, followed by 2"+ rain. Most disastrous-looking run I've seen since the run-up to the Christmas torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 lol at Ray writing off hours 385 through 455 Well, I was under the impression that everything went zonal. I made mistake.....once I hit "publish" on the outlook and autumn begins to age, I turn my attention to the medium range. Little frustration talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I could have sworn that you had responded to Ginx with "What 00z giveth, 06z taketh away"...but I can't find it now. That was Baroclinic Zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Then get a different kind of firehose a few days later. GFS showed 850 wind from the south at 100+ mph from EPO to AUG, even 75+ at RUM. Might be enough to scour out the cold, followed by 2"+ rain. Most disastrous-looking run I've seen since the run-up to the Christmas torch. That is the worst possible low track for us just inland from the coast and north once the cold gets eroded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That was Baroclinic Zone. Ahh...they are mods, so that is probably what caught my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ahh...they are mods, so that is probably what caught my eye. Yea. Plus I've never seen Will post a clown map in my 3yrs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 My mistake. Nice...trend continues, then. I realize it won't change much unless it grows dramatic, but each tic could help. This is solely a stat-padder exercise to me...hoping for a miracle double digit event out of this and avoiding rain will be tough. But I'll take a stat padder over nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yea. Plus I've never seen Will post a clown map in my 3yrs here. I didn't see the map. I'm at work...images blocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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