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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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  On 2/12/2016 at 1:29 AM, jbenedet said:

Difficult to say with much detail--my only confidence is in saying this likely isn't a cutter..

But my gut says I'd take the 850 mb low at hr 108 on the 18z GFS and slide that ENE/NE, and maintain it as an intense open wave, going over NJ/LI, and continue that trajectory to near Cape Cod.

Would mean a snowier/colder solution for many folks in the interior and NNE.

This.
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One thing to watch is the extent of any icing before things wash away.  The impact of the cool antecedent days should allow for a little more glaze than what we might typically see.  In the big picture it won't matter too much as it gets washed away--at least as the EC and EPS show.  GFS only lightly more interesting

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  On 2/12/2016 at 11:09 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

It is very interesting yet still very sucky

I hope I get dry slotted

 

LOL

 

  On 2/12/2016 at 11:20 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro went from Central Pa to NE Pa

 

6z GFS went west but it's a 6z run

 

See what 12 z does

 

Why do people still poo-poo the off-hour runs?  Hasn't that notion been dismissed by folks over the last two years?

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