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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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  On 2/11/2016 at 12:45 PM, CTValleySnowMan said:

We are talking about the 1st storm on the Euro. Places like MPM, HIPPY. and Dave get a couple of sloppy inches at the beginning. Not sure if Westfield in the lower valley would even get that.

I said run. That first storm turned in very weak sauce and set up a nice boundary for a more energetic MillerB.
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  On 2/11/2016 at 12:53 PM, CTValleySnowMan said:

No but with the GFS correcting west the goalposts are narrowing. This is coming inland somewhere in SNE most likely, the best case scenario may give us an inch or two at the start and the rain. Perhaps areas like here avoid the real warmth and stay in the 30s but the temps aloft furnace.

That's what I've been envisioning..Snow to ice and it ends as rain with temps staying in the 30's..Preserving pack. This nonsense of 50's cranking well into NE just seems far fetched

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  On 2/11/2016 at 1:05 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I am hopeful about next week. I figured by this time it would have trended way west, but it is still borderline even out to where I am.

I think the odds still favor mostly wet precip, but if the high can get better then we perhaps can "Make February Great Again" TM

there are a lot of people on this forum who need a storm like this to lift their weenie spirit. Let's hope the GFS and Euro runs do that.

acckucherasnowne_8.png

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  On 2/11/2016 at 12:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Don't expect much for next week....but it's far enough out to check in every model run and see if it offers a surprise.

 

 

But unless that high starts showing more signs of hanging back, it is an extremely hostile setup for a good snow event.

High was starting to hang back a bit more last night.

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  On 2/11/2016 at 1:26 PM, JC-CT said:

We might still be able to get a front end thump next week before flipping to pouring rain

Root for that high to trend a little more stubborn. We will need that. Otherwise it's one of those deals where it probably only snows an inch or two befor the flip.

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  On 2/11/2016 at 1:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Root for that high to trend a little more stubborn. We will need that. Otherwise it's one of those deals where it probably only snows an inch or two befor the flip.

It just always seems that snow breaks out a bit earlier than modeled in these setups
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  On 2/11/2016 at 1:41 PM, EastonSN+ said:

For whatever my 2 cents are worth, looking at the models this reminds me of a few systems in the early 90s where NYC to Boston 95 corridor receives 1 to 3 followed by heavy rain. At least gets us that much closer to a normal average snowfall winter.

Very reminiscent of climo type systems growing up in cnj along 95. Where we see an inch or two then pouring rain while nw nj through newburgh nw ct berks into nne do very well.

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  On 2/11/2016 at 1:41 PM, EastonSN+ said:

For whatever my 2 cents are worth, looking at the models this reminds me of a few systems in the early 90s where NYC to Boston 95 corridor receives 1 to 3 followed by heavy rain. At least gets us that much closer to a normal average snowfall winter.

That was the norm around here. Few inches of snow then rain with a coastal hugger. As of right now, it looks like that.

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