CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 2:20 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right......we aren't even within 5 days yet. Had absolutely nothing to do with next weeks event cuz, so I have no idea what this post is insinuating? Doesn't mater either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:19 AM, Bostonseminole said: vt, nh western me do great.. 20"+ Wow, my local area can't catch a break. This would be great for PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 40 miles east and we are golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:20 AM, CNY-LES FREAK said: Had absolutely nothing to do with next weeks event cuz, so I have no idea what this post is insinuating? Doesn't mater either way. I'm not insinuating $hit. I made a comment. Take a valium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Wow and that banana extension of that 1050 high is something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:21 AM, Bostonseminole said: 40 miles east and we are golden The biggest problem with this system is that there is a very narrow area where this can go and give a big snow event...like 80-90% of the tracks that give us precip would probably have a lot of rain in them. The synoptic setup is so poor for holding in the cold. Even a high sliding E in Nova Scotia would be a lot better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think this run is very close to what will transpire. I like this run. Will, that high is trying to get sneaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Not a bad solution for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 You're so right Ray with regard to the potential here...it's so frustrating that there seems to be always one major ingredient always missing, that just screws the pooch in all these set-ups. With this one, it's no high pressure, or high in wrong spot/retreating. Sad!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GGEM is a Hudson Valley runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think this run is very close to what will transpire. I like this run. Will, that high is trying to get sneaky. yes it is , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:31 AM, Snow88 said: Not a bad solution for everyone. This one of the most frustrating winters of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Bastard Beast gets down to 945 near Greenland total picnic table destroyer, congrats Dendrite EEK Gene too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This one of the most frustrating winters of my life. Lack of a -NAO has murdered us on some of these systems. We don't need it all the time obviously (see last couple winters), but man, I'd like one now and earlier this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This reminds me of an event in January of '94, when we started out with absolute bitter cold, down near zero.....and by the end of the storm, it was like 55 with bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This ones only going so far west, I think it's favors an HV runner or at best a hugger track, Lack of a well placed high hurts our chances at an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Uncle Ukie shifted well east from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 975 off Cape will snow backside this cuts across the cape. GFS too warm at the surface shift the snow axis south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This would rival '78. This season is so maddening....always flaunts its potential, but never realizes it. This is like the third storm referenced to '78, only one was a monster, but 100 miles east. Maybe we can get one to finally materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:50 AM, tavwtby said: This is like the third storm referenced to '78, only one was a monster, but 100 miles east. Maybe we can get one to finally materialize The only time we had something that even mildly resembled '78 was the last storm we are just finishing with (over 3 days) when the GFS had a couple of runs that nearly pulled a full PV lobe phase...and even in that setup, the winds wouldn't have been the same. Of course the full phase never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GEFS is a benchmark hit. Much better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:48 AM, Ginx snewx said: 975 off Cape will snow backside this cuts across the cape. GFS too warm at the surface shift the snow axis south Steve, look at how branched that high is on the UK. On 2/11/2016 at 4:56 AM, ORH_wxman said: The only time we had something that even mildly resembled '78 was the last storm we are just finishing with (over 3 days) when the GFS had a couple of runs that nearly pulled a full PV lobe phase...and even in that setup, the winds wouldn't have been the same. Of course the full phase never happened. Well, its kind of an expression, at least for me. I often don't mean it literally, but I think we could agree that this would be pretty ferocious if that high were over Quebec. On 2/11/2016 at 4:48 AM, Ginx snewx said: 975 off Cape will snow backside this cuts across the cape. GFS too warm at the surface shift the snow axis south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That high branches much more on some of these solutions, subsequent runs are to see some shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 5:11 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That high branches much more on some of these solutions, subsequent runs are to see some shifting. There are small compensations happening in the modeling that are moving away from the full torching cutter solution. Obviously I would love to lean towards bringing a bombing storm under SNE and up into GOM. Will it rain? Probably but some could get a plastering dump before that happens and i would take a thumping snow to rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 4:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This reminds me of an event in January of '94, when we started out with absolute bitter cold, down near zero.....and by the end of the storm, it was like 55 with bare ground. I mentioned today that although some people will mention 1/17/94 and I think 1/3/99 that this setup does not have nearly the room to go as far west and that the high positioning although not great is slightly better than those 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 5:22 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I mentioned today that although some people will mention 1/17/94 and I think 1/3/99 that this setup does not have nearly the room to go as far west and that the high positioning although not great is slightly better than those 2. Well, yea....harkens back to what I have been mentioning regarding the high "branching"....I do not expect to get as warm as those aforementioned scenarios, but the remarkable thermo recovery is what conjured the memories. I think this trends colder, if anything...watch that high POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 5:25 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, yea....harkens back to what I have been mentioning regarding the high "branching"....I do not expect to get as warm as those aforementioned scenarios, but the remarkable thermo recovery is what conjured the memories. I think this trends colder, if anything...watch that high POS. Even if the high stays in a poor position, we could end up with some in-situ type CAD. You dump precip into a cold/dry air mass and you'll wet bulb down into a tough to displace dome of CAD. Without the high, it eventually erodes, but it will take longer than the models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro was east and weak sauce. Much more linear frontal wave type look and stingier with the QPF on the backside. Looked colder to start but still flips most of SNE to rain. Pretty Meh overall but I guess further easy and slightly better CAD are positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ensemble cuts and rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 8:15 AM, CoastalWx said: Ensemble cuts and rains. I am increasingly confident that I'll get out of this winter without having had to clear my driveway. I'm glad I never brought the snowblower out of the shed. I feel good about CNY up through PF, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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