Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Can we start a new one? It's a great idea to focus model speculation and commentary (I think..); not so much a good idea to let it carry out to over a 100 pages. There's probably a lot of fascinating philosophies and interpretations that will never be seen due to the fact that no one has the band-width to devote so much of their lives to circa page 50 whatever... By the way, ... it appears I was in error yesterday when I spoke of 'two threats' in the middle to extended range. I was in fact, upon closer inspection, looking at the same dern wave spacing ...just that the ensembles of the GFS were handling it in different times enough to throw me off. ha. Sorry. Anyway, just fyi - NCEP seems to favor the idea of winter storm for the east next week. Frankly I like the flat-open waves with huge velocity wind maxes.... They can tend to break along narrow latitudes and do so with huge energetic results when they do. There are few of these in the annuls; one of the better I remember was November 1986... of course, who can forget Dec 2005... This could actually be more of a Miller A, in which case no so much NJ... One thing in common among the guidance though is that the trough tries to reach it's greatest amplitude (using a mean) around 80 W, which is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 As I said in the previous thread the Euro is definitely giving signals this storm next week will be a cutter. I have no reason to bet against the streak. We have either been missed to the south and east or have seen brutal cutters. I don't think this will play out much differently with the exception of a sloppy mess in spots at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Pretty ugly euro ensemble next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Pretty ugly euro ensemble next week. Any qpf from the miss this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Any qpf from the miss this weekend? On road. Didn't look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On road. Didn't look at it. Lol ok, stop posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Any qpf from the miss this weekend? It was less than 0.05" if it had anything....minus the Cape which got a tenth or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It was less than 0.05" if it had anything....minus the Cape which got a tenth or two. Thanks Will. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 As I said in the previous thread the Euro is definitely giving signals this storm next week will be a cutter. I have no reason to bet against the streak. We have either been missed to the south and east or have seen brutal cutters. I don't think this will play out much differently with the exception of a sloppy mess in spots at the start. it's definitely hard to knock persistence, sure. But, you 'kinda' 'sorta' a little bit contradict ur-self there ...just 'cause logically, you also mention some going too far SE - you gave ur-self the reason go against the cutter - it's okay though, i knew what you mean. ha. i think the trend that's hard to buck is feeling like nothing will happen at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 it's definitely hard to know persistence, sure. But, you 'kinda' 'sorta' a little bit contradict ur-self there ...just 'cause logically, you also mention some going too far SE - you gave ur-self the reason go against the cutter - it's okay though, i knew what you mean. ha. i think the trend that's hard to buck is feeling like nothing will happen at all... And the +NAO is to blame for both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Just hoping for a net gain in both snowfall and pack. Cutters are ok as long as there's some sort of front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 anyone know how to see the euro para? apparently it is scoring well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Pretty ugly euro ensemble next week. Its way better than the Op if you ask me Edit: More so better for the MA and SE, NYC northward it seems the Ensemble is not worlds better than the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GEFS seem more reasonable and gradient like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 0z Euro Para had a low 968 mb on the BM for tuesday with torched upper levels.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 And the +NAO is to blame for both actually ... -NAO favors southeast tracks... but we've had no -NAO this year - or last, or the year before... at least none sustained enough to direct traffic - so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 0z Euro Para had a low 968 mb on the BM for tuesday with torched upper levels.............lol where do you folks see a euro 'para' run - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 actually ... -NAO favors southeast tracks... but we've had no -NAO this year - or last, or the year before... at least none sustained enough to direct traffic - so to speak. Tongue in cheek dude. Nao gets blamed for cutters and progressive patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 where do you folks see a euro 'para' run - I have it on Stormvista, Paid site, Its on Wxbell as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 sounds like we have to hope for squalls the next couple days and a miracle on saturday or its done for a good while...the euro ultimate track im sure is not right but nothing sounds snowy to me even with better tracks if the upper levels are torched it doesnt matter outside of elevated areas and that requires that those "better" tracks get enough moisture and dynamics nw this day two or three that things have looked pretty ugly ....el nino may be flexing his biceps once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Just hoping for a net gain in both snowfall and pack. Cutters are ok as long as there's some sort of front end dump. This is probably the absolute worst type of setup to have a cutter....because there's almost zero CAD so we don't get one of those nice front end thumps followed by a brief warmup before the cold front whisks everything away....we'll want to hope this just ends up tracking more east....unless there's a synoptic change in the CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Tongue in cheek dude. Nao gets blamed for cutters and progressive patterns right - ha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 I have it on Stormvista, Paid site, Its on Wxbell as well oh ...is that like the equivalent to the GFS beta/test versions ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 oh ...is that like the equivalent to the GFS beta/test versions ? Yes, Its still in beta but suppose to go live sometime in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 And the +NAO is to blame for both Its to blame for the cutters. Will and I had a great discussion about that the other day. We'd be doing quite well this winter with a -NAO as all those cutters we have had this winter would've likely been forced under us....or at least heavy front end dumps going to mix and ending or something. I really think that would've made a difference this winter. Of course the southern stream lows would've been even further southeast possible... but we've had plenty of cutter and rain events that if they were more on the wintery side and forced under us, this winter would have a whole different appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This is probably the absolute worst type of setup to have a cutter....because there's almost zero CAD so we don't get one of those nice front end thumps followed by a brief warmup before the cold front whisks everything away....we'll want to hope this just ends up tracking more east....unless there's a synoptic change in the CAD setup. Its like we were talking about where having a -NAO would really help with those lows this season. Those systems where the H85 0C line just digs in near ALB and is very hard to move NE so you get like 0.5-1.0" QPF shoved into that airmass before it vacates as the low triple points and goes out under SNE and mid-level lows are forced from ALB to CAR instead of BUF to Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 This is probably the absolute worst type of setup to have a cutter....because there's almost zero CAD so we don't get one of those nice front end thumps followed by a brief warmup before the cold front whisks everything away....we'll want to hope this just ends up tracking more east....unless there's a synoptic change in the CAD setup. what irks me to no end ... the last system, the big bomb that for all intents and purposes missed SNE; that one had no business doing that by classical sysnoptics. the ridge over western N/A was holding stationary and the trough in the east just kep stretching the total long-wave, wave length ... really weird actually. so now this one, the ridge in west is progressive; so what does the models do, cut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yes, Its still in beta but suppose to go live sometime in March so you're intimating that it should be reasonably accurate - okay. i wonder if there is a para ensemble suite, too. because 968 mb is a waaaaaaay exotic outlier compared to any technology at mankind's disposal - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Any good new in the long range for March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 so you're intimating that it should be reasonably accurate - okay. i wonder if there is a para ensemble suite, too. because 968 mb is a waaaaaaay exotic outlier compared to any technology at mankind's disposal - ha It should be as long as they get the data, It only runs at 0z and sometimes it doesn't because of loss data, The Para EPS was a runner at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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