buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yep, me too. I think the clipper mostly dries up by the time it gets here, and the coastal forms too far south and east of us to give us anything. It's the perfect, typical, CMH solution. I have no doubt we'll get screwed, I'm just not certain whether it's precip-type issues or a miss southeast. The euro op, eps, and control are pretty steadfast on the western track, as is the ukie. I'd tend to bet on that team vs. the gfs/ggem. JMHO. NAM is still the farthest east and weak, but even it is creeping nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 100%. No reason to get hyped up unless we get some serious s/w slowdown. Without some phasing farther south, even further west solutions are a sloppy mess. the euro control has a 983 on the eastern panhandle of WV. It reminded me of that map I posted of the ukie a few days back showing a 987 in WV for the same timeframe. Even with that depiction, the real snow doesn't kick in until about Youngstown on northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Buckeye would be a good motivational speaker .. keeping me hanging on by a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the euro control has a 983 on the eastern panhandle of WV. It reminded me of that map I posted of the ukie a few days back showing a 987 in WV for the same timeframe. Even with that depiction, the real snow doesn't kick in until about Youngstown on northeast. I know you posted map earlier, but would you agree Euro showed about 4-6 for central Ohio, give or take? If so, WE WOULD ALL TAKE THAT AND RUN THIS WINTER!!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know you posted map earlier, but would you agree Euro showed about 4-6 for central Ohio, give or take? If so, WE WOULD ALL TAKE THAT AND RUN THIS WINTER!!!! LOL yea, 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know you posted map earlier, but would you agree Euro showed about 4-6 for central Ohio, give or take? If so, WE WOULD ALL TAKE THAT AND RUN THIS WINTER!!!! LOL I know I would. I'd take my half-footer and bring on the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know I would. I'd take my half-footer and bring on the torch! You do not wanna take a torch to your half footer. Sounds a little painful lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know I would. I'd take my half-footer and bring on the torch! Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You do not wanna take a torch to your half footer. Sounds a little painful lol LMAO!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You do not wanna take a torch to your half footer. Sounds a little painful lol Lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 LMAO!!!!!!! At least a couple of us Ohio guys found it funny lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z GFS not gonna get it done. Looks even flatter than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z GFS not gonna get it done. Looks even flatter than the 12z run. the difference between the gfs and the euro around the 90 hour time frame is unreal. One of those models is stinking up the place bad....question is which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the difference between the gfs and the euro around the 90 hour time frame is unreal. One of those models is stinking up the place bad....question is which one. Wanna bet which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Wanna bet which one? ha...yea normally I'd say gfs, but it does have some support with the nam and ggem. Not sure what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the difference between the gfs and the euro around the 90 hour time frame is unreal. One of those models is stinking up the place bad....question is which one. Even comparing the 18z GFS to the 12z GFS at 90 it's a huge difference. No amplification of the southern s/w whatsoever. Just a broad, flat trough. That's a big continuity change and I'd probably toss this run as an outlier. In the old days the answer to your question would be obvious ...but EURO ain't the king anymore. That being said, I think this is the one off "lose the storm" run for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The amped models are more amped(Euro,UKMET) While the prog models are gonna prog(GFS,GGEM) Won't be until Monday until this thing gets fully on shore. meh, we'll know well before that. One of the teams is going to crack and it will probably happen in the next couple model runs. Usually when you have one side amping and the other progressive, the progressive side ends up closer to the correct solution. If the ggem starts cranking in tonights run, then I'd say game over for the gfs/nam team. OTOH, if the ukie goes flat tonight, then chances are strong the euro follows and the gfs wins. We need to figure out how to make a betting board with all this stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 meh, we'll know well before that. One of the teams is going to crack and it will probably happen in the next couple model runs. Usually when you have one side amping and the other progressive, the progressive side ends up closer to the correct solution. If the ggem starts cranking in tonights run, then I'd say game over for the gfs/nam team. OTOH, if the ukie goes flat tonight, then chances are strong the euro follows and the gfs wins. We need to figure out how to make a betting board with all this stuff... Uh, my money would be on the Euro...we have seen it time and time again...the NA models capitulate to the Euro, rarely the other way around.....the GFS can't find any consistency from run to run right now. obviously we need to get a the artic air in place this weekend and a better sampling of the other elements which are players and obviously that's not going to be until late Sat/Sun before this is resolved...until then, it's all speculation...but again, I'd ride with the general direction of the "king" if I had to put money on it. It's entertaining to read the Mid-Atlantic forum on this event and then come back over here..no one is happy! I think there is some twisted, sadistic addictive elements to this hobby of mine....I feel everyone's pain....of course those folks got their bomb 3 weeks ago. We just get screwed over and over again...there I go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the difference between the gfs and the euro around the 90 hour time frame is unreal. One of those models is stinking up the place bad....question is which one. i would go with the one that misses us!!! That will be the winner!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NCEP has got to do something that increases GFS forecast effectiveness in the eastern US. Why? Because of days like this. The Euro and UKMET seem to have a good read on winter storms and/or storms near the coast, (at any time of year,) and the GFS seems wacky. Of course, I'm not sure what this storm will do- hoping the central OH people get some winter fun out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z GEFs should be interesting given the major change in the OP run. Hunch is that they'll remain well west of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 ha...yea normally I'd say gfs, but it does have some support with the nam and ggem. Not sure what to think.NAM outside of its range & Oh Canada having a horrible year! I'm telln ya, we have a better shot at rain vs a miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the Euro was still king there would be a lot less anxiety in here. Still, given the choice I'd rather have the Euro show the storm than the GFS. 00Z runs should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS members with the first wave and then the second clipper/wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GEFS members with the first wave and then the second clipper/wave. All_USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_096.gif All_USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_132.gif Some nice hits in there for central OH with the second storm. Keeping the flame alive. Thanks for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Apparent at 54 that the 0z NAM will come at least a little further west with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Apparent at 54 that the 0z NAM will come at least a little further west with the storm. Let's keep reelin 'er eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Let's keep reelin 'er eh? Yeah, inch by inch. Still got 84 hours to reel this in. And I'm not expecting a bomb. Just 3-6" or something like that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Took a jump towards the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If future runs come in with a stronger LP there may be an even further shift west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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