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February 15-17th Storm Threat


OHweather

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I got the feeling yesterday that this was going to go down in flames, I just wasn't sure what was going to bring it down.  Now it looks more and more like the seasonal trend towards a more weaker, progressive, and convoluted/cluster f*ck of a system is going to be the culprit.  

 

I'm not even sure a stronger further west system would do anything for us anyways...as the euro hinted last night, it might just mean mostly rain.    

 

Another failed storm thread for the sub.   I've lost count on how many there's been.  :arrowhead:

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check this out: GFS 264 hour forecast (from 00z Sunday) vs. GFS 102 hour forecast (from 12 today) The GFS wavered quite a bit on the southern-stream storm in between!

 

 

 

 

 

Do you know how much snow the gfs has given us in the long term?   Way too much to give it any props for finding a nut like that in the dark.

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Do you know how much snow the gfs has given us in the long term?   Way too much to give it any props for finding a nut like that in the dark.

Yeah, consistency of model forecasts is key, and that is an example of inconsistency. The GFS sort of lost the southern stream storm for a while. Because somehow, the GFS likes the polar jet and hates the subtropical.

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You know, if you look at the GFS it has that clipper on this storms heels & the Euro probably does not. Interesting that thr GFS gives us some snow w/ that clipper so could model be fumbling the details surrounding this storm & actuall precip for clipper shld be with this storm? Huh? What the hell did U just say?

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You know, if you look at the GFS it has that clipper on this storms heels & the Euro probably does not. Interesting that thr GFS gives us some snow w/ that clipper so could model be fumbling the details surrounding this storm & actuall precip for clipper shld be with this storm? Huh? What the hell did U just say?

 

Like Alek said, the clipper comes very close to phasing with the first storm....might even argue that it starts to phase some.   A full on phase would probably be interesting for the entire sub...if it happened early enough. :weenie:

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The season of thread fails has been entertaining, while this one at some points has been going down the path of clown map weather dreaming.  For a un-sampled system that far out, anything theoretically could happen. I can't remember the last time Alek got all excited over some snow porn so perhaps this one still has a chance.

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