osubrett2 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Time to get on the NAM bandwagon and hope for a stronger and stronger clipper. The coastal looks like a dud for us. Here's hoping...we usually do well with stronger and stronger modeled clippers. Not a chance. It's the LR NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I got the feeling yesterday that this was going to go down in flames, I just wasn't sure what was going to bring it down. Now it looks more and more like the seasonal trend towards a more weaker, progressive, and convoluted/cluster f*ck of a system is going to be the culprit. I'm not even sure a stronger further west system would do anything for us anyways...as the euro hinted last night, it might just mean mostly rain. Another failed storm thread for the sub. I've lost count on how many there's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 UKMET is further west with the slp track, but would probably still be a miss. Time for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 She gone... F you Mother Nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 check this out: GFS 264 hour forecast (from 00z Sunday) vs. GFS 102 hour forecast (from 12 today) The GFS wavered quite a bit on the southern-stream storm in between! Do you know how much snow the gfs has given us in the long term? Way too much to give it any props for finding a nut like that in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 UKMET is further west with the slp track, but would probably still be a miss. Time for Spring. out of raw curiosity, I would love to see hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 out of raw curiosity, I would love to see hour 108. Hmmmm, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hmmmm, why? from this at 96 to a 972 over northern new england at 120. Just curious if those two lows phase, when, where etc. I'm sure we would be screwed either way, just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like this will be a measly 2-4 inch event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 P008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 damn euro won't take the hook out of our mouths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 even has the cmh sucker gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the euro isn't that far off from a monster phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the euro isn't that far off from a monster phase it looks a lot like the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the euro isn't that far off from a monster phase p008!!!11!!!! someone wake up Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Geez... Just enough to keep me around and hoping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 even has the cmh sucker gap B/c of mixing issues nonetheless I'm sure. What is that like 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Do you know how much snow the gfs has given us in the long term? Way too much to give it any props for finding a nut like that in the dark. Yeah, consistency of model forecasts is key, and that is an example of inconsistency. The GFS sort of lost the southern stream storm for a while. Because somehow, the GFS likes the polar jet and hates the subtropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You know, if you look at the GFS it has that clipper on this storms heels & the Euro probably does not. Interesting that thr GFS gives us some snow w/ that clipper so could model be fumbling the details surrounding this storm & actuall precip for clipper shld be with this storm? Huh? What the hell did U just say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 it looks a lot like the ukie I thought the same thing, UKIE and EURO are both showing those 2 trying to phase to some degree. I saw the 0 850 line up to Erie and didn't expect to see snow totals that high in SWPA \ EOH and figured you'd be bullseyed, must be a big front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You know, if you look at the GFS it has that clipper on this storms heels & the Euro probably does not. Interesting that thr GFS gives us some snow w/ that clipper so could model be fumbling the details surrounding this storm & actuall precip for clipper shld be with this storm? Huh? What the hell did U just say? Like Alek said, the clipper comes very close to phasing with the first storm....might even argue that it starts to phase some. A full on phase would probably be interesting for the entire sub...if it happened early enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I thought the same thing, UKIE and EURO are both showing those 2 trying to phase to some degree. I saw the 0 850 line up to Erie and didn't expect to see snow totals that high in SWPA \ EOH and figured you'd be bullseyed, must be a big front end thump. yea, I think mostly front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 p008!!!11!!!! someone wake up Josh!Me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS members; including the clipper. p8 has SE MI scoring big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS members; including the clipper. p8 has SE MI scoring big. All_USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_120.gif All those members have a screw job for Central Illinois we can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The season of thread fails has been entertaining, while this one at some points has been going down the path of clown map weather dreaming. For a un-sampled system that far out, anything theoretically could happen. I can't remember the last time Alek got all excited over some snow porn so perhaps this one still has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just got back in. Genuinely surprised to see the 12z EURO come back west a bit from the 0z run. So we got the EURO/UKIE and fair number of GEFs members playing ball. I get to clench on the towel for another 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just got back in. Genuinely surprised to see the 12z EURO come back west a bit from the 0z run. So we got the EURO/UKIE and fair number of GEFs members playing ball. I get to clinch on the towel for another 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I refused to be sucked into hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I refused to be sucked into hope. Yep, me too. I think the clipper mostly dries up by the time it gets here, and the coastal forms too far south and east of us to give us anything. It's the perfect, typical, CMH solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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