wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 00z gefs are west of the op. Also, anecdotally, this was the timeframe that the models suddenly shifted the late January storm way south. So there's your glass half full. , My guess is that it will either come back NW or just fail to really materialize much (until may way out east). I don't like the 0z GFS solution...I feel it will either be weaker / disorganized if it "misses south" like that or its going to be stronger and we'll fight the mix line. This doesn't feel like a narrow miss to the south by a monster this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 My guess is that it will either come back NW or just fail to really materialize much (until may way out east). I don't like the 0z GFS solution...I feel it will either be weaker / disorganized if it "misses south" like that or its going to be stronger and we'll fight the mix line. This doesn't feel like a narrow miss to the south by a monster this time around. That makes a lot of sense. If this is strong enough to put down the amounts the ggem is showing, there's nothing to keep it from coming further north. The ggem is probably BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Tough to tell at 96 what the EURO's going to do. If it's a miss, it'll be a near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro is quite a bit south of 12z run, but still grazes Cincy. Guess I'll take that for now...Although I don't like how it is trending towards other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro is quite a bit south of 12z run, but still grazes Cincy. Guess I'll take that for now...Although I don't like how it is trending towards other guidance. Huge hit for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro is quite a bit south of 12z run, but still grazes Cincy. Guess I'll take that for now...Although I don't like how it is trending towards other guidance. Thanks for the update. So much for the optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Huge hit for this area. Looks east of the 12z run but still west of the GFS/GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Snow output is weak for all that qpf, even in e.Ohio and w. Pa???? Must have some temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks east of the 12z run but still west of the GFS/GEM. Yeah, it's a very similar track. It's been consistent for several days. But the guidance is still all over, so not getting excited until its 1-2 days out. It's a very tough storm to get excited about because the cold air is so shallow and the radius of snow is such a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Snow output is weak for all that qpf, even in e.Ohio and w. Pa???? Must have some temp issues. Seems to be a theme on the Euro and GFS. Narrow corridor of snow due to lack of sub-freezing surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 06z gfs comes way back west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 General trend seems to be the battle of the 12z suites (west) vs 0z suites (south/east)---any thoughts on if one or the other has been better lately? I have never been a fan of the 6/18z because of the lack of sampling but that could be my own head trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 16 GEFS Ensembles give at least 0.5" of QPF at YYZ. The EPS mean has the heaviest snow from WNY to YUL with a sharp gradient across WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 16 GEFS Ensembles give at least 0.5" of QPF at YYZ. The EPS mean has the heaviest snow from WNY to YUL with a sharp gradient across WNY. A number of 6z GEFS members actually turn us to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like the 00Z Euro gives Newark 23mm of precip with temps hovering around the freezing mark. Another thread the needle storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Interested to see if the pondo model theory continues today. Flat or east at 00z, amped and west at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Interested to see if the pondo model theory continues today. Flat or east at 00z, amped and west at 12zHah, right? So weird. Was it opposite (flat at 12 & amped at 0?) for the one in January?I think I can live w/ the 0z Euro, about 4-5 inches & less of a chance we turn to rain. I just want some snow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hah, right? So weird. Was it opposite (flat at 12 & amped at 0?) for the one in January? you could be right.... I just know the models seem to stick together with the back and forth swings between 12 and 00. I wonder what today's featured screw job trend will be on the models. I'm guessing thermal issues will be the big turd of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Accweather has a high of 40 for us monday!!!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Accweather has a high of 40 for us monday!!!!! LOL Yeah, I mentioned yesterday that my fear is rain with this and not a miss to the south. This truly is a thread the needle b/c there is no cold air locked in. The cold air will be retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM was stronger with the Clipper, which shunted this storm further east. I hope I'm wrong, but that may be the trend from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS kills the Clipper and then sends the storm east with minimal cold sector precip. Snows in Eastern KY/TN and WV. Basically a whiff for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS kills the Clipper and then sends the storm east with minimal cold sector precip. Snows in Eastern KY/TN and WV. Basically a whiff for Ohio. All you can do is laugh. And you know this is precisely what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm just gonna go ahead and toss in the towel now for this one. 3 days out. Lock it in. It's east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS kills the Clipper and then sends the storm east with minimal cold sector precip. Snows in Eastern KY/TN and WV. Basically a whiff for Ohio. Just what I was saying yesterday...both the clipper and storm miss us! Oy!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Why is Accuweather predicting 3-6 for Cincinnati? what are they seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Fear not, there is a clipper behind the storm on the GFS! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just what I was saying yesterday...both the clipper and storm miss us! Oy!!!! I would call you out on a jinx, but this is just par for the course for us. The CMC is nearly identical to the GFS. As they say in Cleveland, there's always next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Time to get on the NAM bandwagon and hope for a stronger and stronger clipper. The coastal looks like a dud for us. Here's hoping...we usually do well with stronger and stronger modeled clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 check this out: GFS 264 hour forecast (from 00z Sunday) vs. GFS 102 hour forecast (from 12 today) The GFS wavered quite a bit on the southern-stream storm in between! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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