ukrocks Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I could see some concern over ice for you Kentucky guys with this week's cold air mass freezing everything prior to the storm. That's my concern. This run still gives me 6-8 inches of snow, I just wonder how much freezing rain or sleet is mixed in with that total. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. The trend has been for these storms to track just south of me. Louisville missed the big one the rest of the state got a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 at 120 it has two low centers, one in WV and the other in NC, I'm not sure if it's trying to redevelop on the coast but it all ends up as a strong low in nc PA. probably important to note the euro shifted 300 miles with the snow axis in one model run. Either it sniffed out something or was sniffing something. Yes, but other than last night's 0Z run it had snow in our neck of the woods for a couple run before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yes, but other than last night's 0Z run it had snow in our neck of the woods for a couple run before that. I don't mean to sound too pessimistic, I just try to figure out everything that can possibly go wrong so at least if I'm disappointed, it's not a surprise lol. I feel a lot better about us not getting totally whiffed anymore, but when the model swings like that, it usually corrects back. So I think the solution will be closer to the ggem, but still further nw. Which actually could be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 fwliw, jb says the euro is on crack, (of course it screws state college too). Says the analog is a blend of 75% Dec 26/27 2012 and 25% March 3-4 1994. I remember that December storm. Blizzard watches were issued for western OH and southern IN but I don't think a blizzard realized for them. We wasted a lot of precip in the first several hours as a wintry slop but ended up with about 4 or 5". I don't recall March 3-4 1994, but I checked and it was a total whiff to the east of OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I don't mean to sound too pessimistic, I just try to figure out everything that can possibly go wrong so at least if I'm disappointed, it's not a surprise lol. I feel a lot better about us not getting totally whiffed anymore, but when the model swings like that, it usually corrects back. So I think the solution will be closer to the ggem, but still further nw. Which actually could be a good thing. You could say the same thing about last night's euro run vs. yesterday's 12z run. Now it has corrected back to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Euro looks like it hammers Ohio. The 12z Euro predicts 0.375" of rain in 3 hours in Columbus, then change to snow. If the situation is a little colder, then Columbus would get all snow. There's a chance that the jackpot zone could go from Columbus to Toronto. I don't know though-- it seems that the models are still fighting about the prediction of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The 12z Euro predicts 0.375" of rain in 3 hours in Columbus, then change to snow. If the situation is a little colder, then Columbus would get all snow. There's a chance that the jackpot zone could go from Columbus to Toronto. I don't know though-- it seems that the models are still fighting about the prediction of this storm. that explains why the qpf seemed sig higher than the snowfall totals. When I saw the qpf before the snow map I was expecting to see close to 20" depicted. I figured there must have been some mixing issues in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 seriously pulling for you buckeye but i'd lol if you ended up getting rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hmm if buckeye runs into mixing, that could bode well for me 60 miles west. Although I hope we both cash in as we have been the victims of several screw jobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 seriously pulling for you buckeye but i'd lol if you ended up getting rain hell I wouldn't blame you, how ironic would that be considering the last two OV big dogs whiffed us to the southeast and locked in 5 days out with not so much as a tease of ever trending nw. I think I'd just have to laugh too....what else can you do, (other than drink). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 hell I wouldn't blame you, how ironic would that be considering the last two OV big dogs whiffed us to the southeast and locked in 5 days out with not so much as a tease of ever trending nw. I think I'd just have to laugh too....what else can you do, (other than drink). No doubt! I personally think there is a better chance of getting rain vs. a whiff to the south and east with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Will know in about 10 minutes if Euro was on something or not!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No doubt! I personally think there is a better chance of getting rain vs. a whiff to the south and east with this. there's about 5 possible outcomes. Only 1 is good, 4 are bad. A stronger low and WTOD is definitely in the cards with that high exiting due east, but strictly anecdotal and just going with what this winter has been giving us, I think southeast with a weaker low is still our biggest bust threat. If the euro had been creeping nw with each model run, I'd give today's 12z more cred....but jumping 300 miles to that solution in one model run kind of makes me suspicious. It also has that funky solution of a strong primary to WV in tandem with an equally strong low to NC. Without a strong block in place you would think this would be a one low situation instead of a redevelopment or a dual low. But what the hell do I know. ....except now I'm sucked into this damn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 the eps is in on wxbell. The spread is pretty crazy but it looks like the mean snowfall shows the heaviest axis further southeast, closer to the ohio river. Control looks more like the ggem than the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 ILN says a rain/snow mix for Monday. They're definitely going with the NW solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 ILN says a rain/snow mix for Monday. They're definitely going with the NW solutions. They jumped ship fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Sad thing is the models have also been trending more ragged with the northern stream portion of the storm. QPF around here keeps getting lighter. At one point it looked like a nice "plan-B" in case a bigger storm failed to develop. btw...the squall in your avatar...what event is that from? December 2013? Yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 LOL @ the 12z EURO. YYZ blizzard of the century. Yeah, I'll believe that when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Anyone know what the parallel Euro shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 LOL @ the 12z EURO. YYZ blizzard of the century. Yeah, I'll believe that when I see it. BUF to London special Cause that happens all the time, right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 LOL @ the 12z EURO. YYZ blizzard of the century. Yeah, I'll believe that when I see it. Insane run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Anyone know what the parallel Euro shows? that won't come out until well after 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z gfs looks like it's going to be a stronger SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 And a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fairly noticeable jump with the 18z GFS towards a EUROesque like solution. Still skeptical though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fairly noticeable jump with the 18z GFS towards a EUROesque like solution. Still skeptical though. So close but no cigar. Need that clipper to slow down a bit otherwise this goes east. But at least it keeps improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fairly noticeable jump with the 18z GFS towards a EUROesque like solution. Still skeptical though. gfs has a nice track but it's incredibly stingy with the cold sector precip. If the gfs is correct, the winner's lane will only be a couple of counties wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I can't imagine their only being a sliver of frozen precip with that kind of track and a low going sub 990mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 gfs has a nice track but it's incredibly stingy with the cold sector precip. If the gfs is correct, the winner's lane will only be a couple of counties wide Open wave at H5, barely closes it off at H7. Yeah, not much of an expansive deformation zone to the NW of the track. But it's a good trend. I'm thinking the 18z GEFS will have a couple of monster members for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I can't imagine their only being a sliver of frozen precip with that kind of track and a low going sub 990mb It does that because it doesn't develop the system aloft much. Plus that kicker clipper on its ass tends to keep it more progressive than it otherwise would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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