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February 15-17th Storm Threat


OHweather

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gotta give props to ILN, they nailed this one.   For future reference, the nam was too far east with the precip, (totally whiffing us inside of 24 hours), even the gfs wasn't that much better.   Euro did very well.

But someone told me just a couple weeks ago that the Euro was having a "rough" year! :lol:

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UKMET/EURO definitely win top prize with their handling of this storm. Fairly consistent showing a sharper, more amplified s/w and further west sfc track. Seemed like NAM/GFS/GEM were hanging on to the bitter end before they saw the light.

 

Pretty embarrassed that I was actually buying into those hi res solutions from yesterday morning. What happened was that those models were outputting the big snow #s around the same time the 12z NAM came in well to the west of its previous runs. So I thought it maybe we were starting to see one of those big NW trends that were more common about 6-7 years ago. But the HRRR/RAP have a known bias of being too amped, especially outside of the super short-range (like within 12 hours). I should have known better. 

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UKMET/EURO definitely win top prize with their handling of this storm. Fairly consistent showing a sharper, more amplified s/w and further west sfc track. Seemed like NAM/GFS/GEM were hanging on to the bitter end before they saw the light.

 

Pretty embarrassed that I was actually buying into those hi res solutions from yesterday morning. What happened was that those models were outputting the big snow #s around the same time the 12z NAM came in well to the west of its previous runs. So I thought it maybe we were starting to see one of those big NW trends that were more common about 6-7 years ago. But the HRRR/RAP have a known bias of being too amped, especially outside of the super short-range (like within 12 hours). I should have known better. 

 

I made the same mistake. Those types of NW trends have been pretty common over the last few years. With a really sharp gradient, it's tough to pinpoint amounts.

 

In the end my 4-7" range wasn't far off. Have ~3.5" here. 7cm at YYZ.

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UKMET/EURO definitely win top prize with their handling of this storm. Fairly consistent showing a sharper, more amplified s/w and further west sfc track. Seemed like NAM/GFS/GEM were hanging on to the bitter end before they saw the light.

 

Pretty embarrassed that I was actually buying into those hi res solutions from yesterday morning. What happened was that those models were outputting the big snow #s around the same time the 12z NAM came in well to the west of its previous runs. So I thought it maybe we were starting to see one of those big NW trends that were more common about 6-7 years ago. But the HRRR/RAP have a known bias of being too amped, especially outside of the super short-range (like within 12 hours). I should have known better. 

 

Let's not give the UKMET too muc credit now.

 

It was way too amplied and too far west with the track of the surface (even had Detroit on the edge of the heavy snow for a few runs).

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