snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRR initialization of low position looks good. It is 4mb too strong, however. The RAP is SE of OBS, but correct with strength. Models overall doing a pretty good job. Unfortunately for us that means the chance of a big 1'+ surprise snowstorm is pretty remote. The good news is that I think 4" as floor is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Usually if there is a swath of snow from south to north there, it is wider and extends into the mountains more. It is definitely more narrow than usual, but if you look at some classic app runners like December '04 or March '08, they were wider but really not by that much. '04 was mostly western half of OH and a small sliver of eastern IN. '08 was mostly thru the center of Ohio and rain in extreme eastern OH. App riders always mean rain for the mountains unless there is cad on the eastern slopes before it has a chance to erode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Models overall doing a pretty good job. Unfortunately for us that means the chance of a big 1'+ surprise snowstorm is pretty remote. The good news is that I think 4" as floor is a lock. I agree. GREarth software has a 1003.4mb low right over Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Winter storm warning has now been issued for Youngstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 What's the status dudes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I agree. GREarth software has a 1003.4mb low right over Birmingham. This is definitely a positive surprise. Just a couple of days ago, this looked like just flurries for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That whole zone east of I-71 in Ohio, indicated as heavy snow (in the next 15 hours) is just above freezing right now. Perhaps this rain currently near the Ohio River will never change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Just a note: both the RAP and HRRR have a cold bias wherever there is snow cover, and a severe cold bias whenever there is snow cover with clear skies. Obviously with precipitation falling, skies aren't clear but this event seems to be coming down to only a couple degrees. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some advisories upgraded to warnings overnight if the band sets up like the models indicate. Another interesting thing to note is on the ILN snowfall maps, the 'minimum potential' for some grid-points is 0 while the 'maximum potential' is almost a foot...talk about uncertainty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Man, RAP keeps drifting east. Now I'm a bit concerned. You just can't fight climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm pretty sure my range of 4-6" is going to bust high. Don't like what that convection along the Gulf is doing to the track of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Man, RAP keeps drifting east. Now I'm a bit concerned. You just can't fight climatology. For a brief moment today I actually thought the hi-res models were on to something with the west trend. It's looking like a 1-2" event here now unless we can pull out a miracle weenie band along the edge of the precip shield. Good luck up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Mainly for the Ontario interests, here's my take ... About 5-10 cm snow in Hamilton and western GTA, 10-15 cm eastern GTA, 15-25 cm Ajax to Oshawa, 25-40 cm potential in a narrow band about Darlington to Trenton and north-northeast from there to Pembroke-Arnprior. East of that max jackpot zone, a rapid transition to 10 cm snowfalls changing to heavy ice pellets, an interval of freezing rain, then back to ice pellets and snow. That could extend as far east as Kingston to Ottawa into Laurentians. East of that, 10-15 cm snow overnight changing to freezing rain and a heavy glaze likely in Montreal, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec generally. It may change to all rain for a brief interval late in the storm at least in southern Quebec but not long enough to melt the ice. There could be some tree and hydro line damage, worst will be around Hawkesbury and Cornwall (in far eastern ON), over to Laval and St-Jerome. Any shifts east or west will of course drag these zones east or west. But that's my call anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 For a brief moment today I actually thought the hi-res models were on to something with the west trend. It's looking like a 1-2" event here now unless we can pull out a miracle weenie band along the edge of the precip shield. Good luck up there! Yep, I fell for it too. Especially after the NAM made a decent adjustment to the west. Seemed like a legit trend but alas it was no more than a tease. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up in the same range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The wind data is a bit old in this map, but you can see the low has formed near N. Alabama/South Central TN: http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What are the local forecasters saying? I would imagine that 401 between the 115 and Kingston will be hit hard overnight and Tuesday by this storm. There won't be a lot of wind, but heavy rates and that bit of freezing drizzle mixed in, glad I don't have to drive that any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What are the local forecasters saying? I would imagine that 401 between the 115 and Kingston will be hit hard overnight and Tuesday by this storm. There won't be a lot of wind, but heavy rates and that bit of freezing drizzle mixed in, glad I don't have to drive that any more. Haven't heard much. Then again, haven't been paying much attention to them since they suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Started out as very light rain an hour ago. Now it has switched over to light snow. Hope this bodes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 man, clicking around meso analysis and this is a tough call, such a narrow ribbon a favorable thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's gotten quiet. Everyone must be refreshing their radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Roads are starting to get covered here with a steady light snow. What are you guys seeing over in CMH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Street light say light snow has commenced in westerville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's gotten quiet. Everyone must be refreshing their radars. I may be having radar hallucinations, but looking at national radar, it looks like a nice band is going to setup shop right along I-71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Street light say light snow has commenced in westerville Started out as a very light rain here for a few minutes and then switched to snow about an hour ago. I was at a Krogers earlier and you would've thought the blizzard of '78 was making a return visit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I've got some nice freezing fog lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I may be having radar hallucinations, but looking at national radar, it looks like a nice band is going to setup shop right along I-71. Looks like it's driving right up 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Roads are starting to get covered here with a steady light snow. What are you guys seeing over in CMH? Nada here. Fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Very light snow here. Not enough for accumulation at 34F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks like it's driving right up 71. I live a mile east of i-71 as the crow flies.... bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I live a mile east of i-71 as the crow flies.... bring it on.About 6 miles west of 71 here so I may be effed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Definitely snow in Columbus. I do like the looks of the band. We may actually end up on the good side this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.