OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 yea the short range models aren't getting any respect. PIT issued an advisory for Muskingum County for 2-4"???I fully expect a 6"+ swath down down to my latitude, just not sure how far west or east. Temps start marginal but a very robust warm conveyor belt running into a well-defined deform zone for several hours should flip places to snow and let it pound for a good 6 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Going to bump up, and lock in a final call for Toronto of 4-6". Getting very good agreement between the NAM/SREFs/RAP and RGEM with about 1/2" of QPF. Obviously, small changes in the track of this storm, as well as if any kind of banding features setup under the mid level low, will make a difference in amounts. But won't really start to get a feel for that until we're underway. Wow, I'm up in Ottawa for the day, away from this board and come back to a moderate storm potential. I'm thinking 4" at the moment for my back yard. Ottawa looks set to be hammered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Wow, I'm up in Ottawa for the day, away from this board and come back to a moderate storm potential. I'm thinking 4" at the moment for my back yard. Ottawa looks set to be hammered! lol, stay there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 CLE party-poopers&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH HEIGHT FALLS CENTEREDOVER NORTH CAROLINA. MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTHCAROLINA BY 06Z AND INTO EASTERN WV BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. JUDGINGFROM THE 18Z 6 HOURS QPF...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAS THE HIGHESTQPF TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE COLDER AIR. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWFFOR THE QPF FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 lol, stay there! Already back. lol Have to work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hallucinations aside, I'm thinking this is going to be too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRR coming in a bit colder yet again! Changes Athens over by 6z. Am starting to think we may even start as very wet snow as 925mb temps and 850mb temps are still 0 to -1C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looking good for cbus east side. And ohweather of course! Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Going to bump up, and lock in a final call for Toronto of 4-6". Getting very good agreement between the NAM/SREFs/RAP and RGEM with about 1/2" of QPF. Obviously, small changes in the track of this storm, as well as if any kind of banding features setup under the mid level low, will make a difference in amounts. But won't really start to get a feel for that until we're underway. Not liking your call right now canuk. Models continue to slip east and the latest RGEM just came in more east. Perhaps a 2-4" call is more appropriate for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Radar starting to fill in..already across the river!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRR coming in a bit colder yet again! Changes Athens over by 6z. Am starting to think we may even start as very wet snow as 925mb temps and 850mb temps are still 0 to -1C Looks like it should be starting there fairly soon, in whatever form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Not liking your call right now canuk. Models continue to slip east and the latest RGEM just came in more east. Perhaps a 2-4" call is more appropriate for this system. RGEM is the only model that slipped east. NAM came west and is handling the surface development of the low along the Gulf coast perfectly. The hi res, ultra short-term models which were ridiculously far west are coming back to reality but still show 4-6" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 RGEM is the only model that slipped east. NAM came west and is handling the surface development of the low along the Gulf coast perfectly. The hi res, ultra short-term models which were ridiculously far west are coming back to reality but still show 4-6" at least. I am worried about the EURO though. I know short range models are the way to go right now but still have a bit of an uneasy feeling with this one. Hope you're right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I am worried about the EURO though. I know short range models are the way to go right now but still have a bit of an uneasy feeling with this one. Hope you're right though. Honestly, with our luck I wouldn't blame you for being uneasy. Just gotta wait 'n see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks like it should be starting there fairly soon, in whatever form.It's rain, though we have dropped a bit to 35. We'll see what happens when heavier precip moves in. I could see it going to a mix for a time then back to all rain for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS nudges east a bit. There's no rhyme or reason. Models could come back west with the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS nudges east a bit. There's no rhyme or reason. Models could come back west with the 0z run. Good luck to you Toronto and Ohio guys. Lord knows you're overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Did a pretty thorough analysis of the synoptic setup at 21z and compared it to the 18z NAM/GFS. Both models are doing a pretty good job. GFS is a little weak with the H7 wave and both models are a little weak with the sfc low...but other than that you can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Updated model summary for TO 19z RAP Primary: 4-6" 19z RAP NCEP: 2-4" 18z NAM: 4-5" 19z HRRRX: 6-9" 18z RGEM: 2-3" 12z HRDPS: 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRRX goes to town, holy moly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRR is running a tad too cool across SW and even central ohio thru 5pm. Minor errors could make or break big snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRR is running a tad too cool across SW and even central ohio thru 5pm. Minor errors could make or break big snow tonight. too cool could also mean it's too far east with the precip too. grasping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 21z HRRR is bringing the snow back west a little bit. Particularly in NE OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 too cool could also mean it's too far east with the precip too. grasping I'll have what you're having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Significant ice storm likely for Jefferson county NY and the Kingston, Ontario area!!! Wow! NWS with 1/2 - 1" ice accum and 30mph winds....would cause significant damage especially with the heavy wet snow causing additional strain to trees and wires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 21z HRRR is bringing the snow back west a little bit. Particularly in NE OH. That's a swath of snow you don't see very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 too cool could also mean it's too far east with the precip too. grasping Obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 After spending most of the day drifting along the gulf coast, sfc low has finally made a left turn in western AL as of 22z. Down to 1004mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 After spending most of the day drifting along the gulf coast, sfc low has finally made a left turn in eastern AL as of 22z. Down to 1004mb. HRRR initialization of low position looks good. It is 4mb too strong, however. The RAP is SE of OBS, but correct with strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That's a swath of snow you don't see very often. Usually if there is a swath of snow from south to north there, it is wider and extends into the mountains more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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