jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Radar hallucinations suggest that the heavier stuff is starting to build north towards Louisville. If it can make it that far north, I think the 71 corridor eventually makes it into the decent returns. The final questions would be for how long and what would be the precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 When will they bite and issue..that's the question..or do they? Probably just before issuing the zones, so another hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Going to be interesting to see what EC does with the afternoon update. I'm guessing they upgrade Niagara and Northumberland County up to the Ottawa Valley to a warning and then expand a SWS further west to include the GTA/Hamilton up to around Peterborough. I doubt they issue a watch further west this late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Radar hallucinations suggest that the heavier stuff is starting to build north towards Louisville. If it can make it that far north, I think the 71 corridor eventually makes it into the decent returns. The final questions would be for how long and what would be the precip type. I'm busy weenieing out on the sfc low. Down to 1006mb over E MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Radar hallucinations suggest that the heavier stuff is starting to build north towards Louisville. If it can make it that far north, I think the 71 corridor eventually makes it into the decent returns. The final questions would be for how long and what would be the precip type. euro never gets the .10 qpf line north of the Ohio river into IN. That'll be another benchmark to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 SREF plumes took a jump up from 9z. Here at CLE the mean is 3" with quite a few members above 5" and then the other half are about an inch or less. Still no consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm busy weenieing out on the sfc low. Down to 1006mb over E MS. what about the low out west.... how is it fairing compared to models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 ILN goes WWA for counties along and east of 71 in Central Ohio and east of 71 in SW/S Ohio. Calls for 3-4" which seems reasonable. Hoping for greater trends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 15z SREF mean QPF looks like it's improved over the down 9z run: BUF: 1.60" CMH: 0.60" YYZ: 0.55" CLE: 0.47" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 what about the low out west.... how is it fairing compared to models? Just checked it out. At the surface...it looks like the NAM/GFS have a good handle on it re: placement and depth. At H5...it looks like those models may have been a touch too strong with it, but it's not a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Only a 1" mean snowfall jump for CMH, but now a huge spread. 9z had minimal spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 SREF plumes took a jump up from 9z. Here at CLE the mean is 3" with quite a few members above 5" and then the other half are about an inch or less. Still no consensus. Same for YYZ. Attm I'm pretty confident those DAB ones are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 ILN goes WWA for counties along and east of 71 in Central Ohio and east of 71 in SW/S Ohio. Calls for 3-4" which seems reasonable. Hoping for greater trends though. surprised they didn't go for warnings east of the i-71 counties. If CMH gets 3 or 4", chances are very good that places in Licking and Fairfield are going to better than that. Unless they believe there will be more mixing in those counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Man, had you just shown me the current national radar map and told me it was the middle of Febraury, I would have been like jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 surprised they didn't go for warnings east of the i-71 counties. If CMH gets 3 or 4", chances are very good that places in Licking and Fairfield are going to better than that. Unless they believe there will be more mixing in those counties. Just looked further and there are 3 versions. 1-3" for Delware and other fringe counties. 3-4" for Franklin, Pickaway, Fairfield, and Ross. Then Licking gets their own for 4-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 17z, destroying Coshocton, Newark area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 18z NAM through 15 looks pretty similar to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 18z NAM through 15 looks pretty similar to the 12z run. it's moved a bit west....at least with the precip shield in Ohio. Still probably the furthest east model overall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 17z, destroying Coshocton, Newark area lol acsnw_t3sfc_f24.png If Springfield gets 3"....then it's katy bar the door for CMH. I think that's what's odd about the HRRR, it has a fairly wide shield and much less of a sharp gradient from all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 it's moved a bit west....at least with the precip shield in Ohio. Still probably the furthest east model overall though. Yeah, I can tell it's a little more expansive with the precip shield by 18-21. Here in YYZ might be a small uptick in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 The NAM pasted us with almost 1" QPF as snow. I have no idea what will happen. I'm going with an uneasy 1-3" for Athens proper. Someone here or just west will get drilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Going to bump up, and lock in a final call for Toronto of 4-6". Getting very good agreement between the NAM/SREFs/RAP and RGEM with about 1/2" of QPF. Obviously, small changes in the track of this storm, as well as if any kind of banding features setup under the mid level low, will make a difference in amounts. But won't really start to get a feel for that until we're underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 17z, destroying Coshocton, Newark area lol acsnw_t3sfc_f24.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looking good for some of you guys. Will be interesting if the HRRR can pull off those amounts above. Would be epic for Toronto and Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looking good for some of you guys. Will be interesting if the HRRR can pull off those amounts above. Would be epic for Toronto and Cleveland. Love how the 6" line is on a B-line for Toronto and scoots to the east just in time to avoid us, only to rejoin its original trajectory to the north. That's how we roll HRRR had some support early with the RAP but that's starting to fade. I doubt it verifies but I'll take a moderate event no prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Love how the 6" line is on a B-line for Toronto and scoots to the east just in time to avoid us, only to rejoin its original trajectory to the north. That's how we roll HRRR had some support early with the RAP but that's starting to fade. I doubt it verifies but I'll take a moderate event no prob. time to shut down the models and fire up the radar....good luck to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah, good luck to everyone. Should be an interesting storm to track no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 those counties in southeast OH with no warnings or advisories could end up with the biggest pummeling if some of these short range models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 those counties in southeast OH with no warnings or advisories could end up with the biggest pummeling if some of these short range models are correct. Hola The HRRR keeps ticking southeast and now has us getting 4" through the end of the run and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hola The HRRR keeps ticking southeast and now has us getting 4" through the end of the run and still snowing. yea the short range models aren't getting any respect. PIT issued an advisory for Muskingum County for 2-4"??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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